Tropical Wave in western Caribbean--CODE YELLOW 10%

[blp]

Take it with a grain of salt because it is the NAM, but it is added to the list of models on-board with development. Interesting to see that it has possibly Bonnie and Colin, which does not seem too crazy considering other models showing those two areas as hot spots.

[HURAKAN]

TPC 72 hrs

[hurricaneCW]

I hope its not a Mexico storm, they have already suffered from Alex. I also wonder if this year will be like 2007 with a lot of low riders into central America and Mexico rather than the United States. If so, than consider ourselves lucky while making those less fortunate suffer the worst.

If by the peak of the season La Nina kicks in between Moderate to Strong,that may well be the favored tracks. See the ENSO Updates thread to see the latest.

Well if we get systems developing in the eastern Atlantic, I highly doubt they continue westward all the way into central America. Same thing if systems develop in the Bahamas or north of the islands. I don't think La Nina will get into strong territory either, probably moderate at best but we are barely at the threshold and its already July. I don't see too much intensification of La Nina as we head into August and during the peak season.

[Weatherfreak000]

This is looking great tonight, I think we should see the invest classification here, maybe even a bump to 20%. We need to get some models running on this!

[ROCK]

This is looking great tonight, I think we should see the invest classification here, maybe even a bump to 20%. We need to get some models running on this!

agreed..there is some serious convection going on tonight....

[blp]

This is looking great tonight, I think we should see the invest classification here, maybe even a bump to 20%. We need to get some models running on this!

agreed..there is some serious convection going on tonight....

They still have it 10% but this has invest written all over it.

000
ABNT20 KNHC 040532
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT SUN JUL 4 2010

A TROPICAL WAVE IS PRODUCING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR
SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM AS IT MOVES GENERALLY
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 15 TO 20 MPH OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

[MWatkins]

My gut feel, and again that's just a gut feel, says this develops and tracks north of where Alex did.

I can't completely support the track idea with any objective analysis.

I think the development part will occur, but again, just my OPINION...I think this will fade east of the last cyclone.

I am starting to believe we will have one of these kind of situations to watch each week until late October.

MW

[Weatherfreak000]

I was thinking the same thing, and that's exactly why I want to see invest on this. We need to see some model support and give a hold on where this is going because once it makes it to the West Caribbean its an entirely new ball game.

I suppose the patience game is good however, let us see how it evolves overnight.

[brunota2003]

I'm still pulling for invest later today (probably by noon, so we get some visible images in as well). I think we'll see the initial spot west of the deep convection blossoming up.

[blp]

My gut feel, and again that's just a gut feel, says this develops and tracks north of where Alex did.

I can't completely support the track idea with any objective analysis.

I think the development part will occur, but again, just my OPINION...I think this will fade east of the last cyclone.

I am starting to believe we will have one of these kind of situations to watch each week until late October.

MW

Well the CMC for two runs now favors eastward thinking and I agree it looks like the Tropics are heating up, I am also interested in the feature east of Florida as well, a few models want to develop it as well.

[bahamaswx]

Looks a lot meaner than 95L. Blob status achieved.

[xcool22]

96l is here

[southerngale]

Please continue the discussions in the 96L thread in the Active Storms forum.

http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?f=59&t=108461