Happy 4th of July to all Americans and especially to Luis who does so much for us all!
Have a great day!
From CROWN WEATHER:
For the Tropical Weather Discussion with Maps, Images and Graphics, Go To:
http://www.crownweather.com/?page_id=325 Lots on my plate in terms of potential tropical trouble this Fourth of July!:
Area One: Invest 95-L in the northern Gulf of Mexico: A non-tropical area of low pressure, labeled Invest 95-L, is located about 125 miles south-southwest of the coasts of Mississippi and southeast Louisiana. This low pressure system is producing some shower and thunderstorm activity this morning and it is forecast to track inland by later tonight or during the day Monday. The environment is not favorable for development as there is strong wind shear and dry air around. I expect no tropical development from this system.
Area Two: Invest 96-L in the western Caribbean, looks likely to develop this week: Of much more interest is Invest 96-L located over the western Caribbean Sea. Environmental conditions look like they will be favorable for development over the next several days. The entire satellite presentation of Invest 96-L is better than what it was 24 hours ago which means it is organizing. This system and its overall setup synoptically and the environment it is in is very similar to Hurricane Alex. The European model forecasts development and forecasts it to track inland into eastern or northeastern Mexico by the end of the week. The Canadian model also forecasts development from Invest 96-L and ultimately forecasts a landfall near the Texas-Louisiana border around Thursday. So, yes this looks like an Alex Redux. This system is expected to bring showers and thunderstorms with heavy rainfall and gusty winds to Jamaica and the Cayman Islands today through Monday.
My take is that this will be our next named storm and I suspect that we will have a Tropical Depression and then Tropical Storm Bonnie by or before Tuesday. Strengthening into a hurricane is quite possible as it tracks west-northwest to northwest across the southern and western Gulf of Mexico during Wednesday and Thursday. I do not believe the Canadian model's forecast of a landfall near the Texas-Louisiana state line and favor a track very similar to Alex and think a final landfall area between Brownsville, Texas and Tampico, Mexico is very possible during Friday.
All interests in south Texas and northeastern Mexico should pay very close attention to the progress of this system.
Area Three: Off of the coast of Florida: Development may occur off of the coast of Florida this week just north of the Bahamas along the tail end of a frontal system. The combination of very warm ocean temperatures and a stalled front with area of low pressure spells potential trouble. Right now, I put the odds of it happening as low to medium. Right now, it is primarily non-tropical in nature and surface pressures off of the US southeast coast are fairly high and this would make it very hard for this system to acquire tropical characteristics. This low pressure system, tropical or non-tropical, will track northward towards the eastern North Carolina coast later this week.
Area Four: Tropical Wave Approaching The Caribbean: Another tropical wave is expected to enter the Caribbean over the next day or two and this wave needs to be monitored very closely. Over the next three or four days, I do not expect development from it, however, when it gets into the northwest Caribbean and southeastern Gulf of Mexico next weekend (July 10-11), it will be moving into an area of building heat and moisture. To be perfect blunt, area 4 poses the greatest threat to the United States Gulf Coast as the pattern will be very favorable for another storm in the Gulf of Mexico during the week of July 12th. So, I urge everyone to keep a very close eye on this tropical wave.
The overall weather pattern across the eastern United States and into the tropics is changing as a large ridge of high pressure is shifting north. This will leave the Gulf of Mexico open for upward motion, building heat and building moisture. This weather pattern also means that troughs of low pressure out in the western Atlantic will try to dig down and then be kicked out leaving pieces of energy behind to the east of Florida. These pieces of energy either track westward into the Gulf of Mexico and then develop or they remain over the southwest Atlantic and ventilate the Gulf of Mexico and western Caribbean. This is the type of weather pattern that the tropical wave now approaching the Caribbean will be moving into in about 7 days; therefore, environmental conditions may be very favorable for development. If that isn't enough, the Madden Julian Oscillation appears to be stuck in a upward motion phase across the Atlantic and this says to me that there is a lot of potential with this particular tropical wave. Obviously, I will be watching this tropical wave very closely and will keep you all updated.
and continue to keep us informed as possible with this active twave.
http://www.stormcarib.com/reports/curre ... idad.shtml
