ATL: INVEST 95L - DISCUSSION

[Stormcenter]

It sure looks like it's trying to get better organized and expanding somewhat in size. IMO

http://www.rap.ucar.edu/weather/satelli ... uration=12

[Stormcenter]

I believe it's safe to say now that 95L is possibly on it's way to becoming a TD. IMO


http://www.rap.ucar.edu/weather/satelli ... uration=12

[lrak]

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=42360

this buoy had a strong WSW this morning.

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=42001

the 42001 has SSW current direction....hmmm...it sure is tiny, but cool to watch. I remember Bret about that size with 160mph winds

[KWT]

It looks not bad right now but its going to need to hold that convective look for a while.

Looks like its starting to lift up a little now, I think there is certainly a chance the NHC will become muchmore itnerested in development, I'd think we could go as high as 40-50% next time given the convection is slapbang over the center.

Reminds me of a similar thing to the May invest of 2009 that made landfall as pretty much a weak TC.

[HURAKAN]

Latest

[americanre1]

I could definitely seeing this with its super tight convection get up to cat 1 if it stays together. It wouldn't have much impact except for where it makes landfall unless it decides to expand in size before making landfall.

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[lrak]

could it be...what about the shear? Is it going to decrease enough?

[pepeavilenho]

This is like Grace last year...

I give it 33% now, It's hard to know if it could.

[ConvergenceZone]

Is that an eye in the middle?


hehe

[xironman]

could it be...what about the shear? Is it going to decrease enough?

Maybe 20kt looks less to the north. I think the dry air is a bigger problem.

[HurricaneBelle]

This is like Grace last year...

Reminds me more of Marco of 2008, the ultimate mini-storm.

[ToxicTiger]

The factor that will most limit 95L is the dry air surrounding her on at least 2 sides, followed closely by lack of time and water, with shear finishing a distant 3rd place. However, she is looking the best we've seen her up to this this point.

Yes, they are all still females to me, at least until they get a male name...

[funster]

Gets my vote for cutest storm of the year so far...

[xironman]

The surface winds are going around, but not much wind.

[Cryomaniac]

Yes, they are all still females to me, at least until they get a male name...

Since this would be called Bonnie if it developed now, that's ok

The following is the opinion of Cryomaniac, and is not based on any evidence, meteorological or otherwise, and as such it should not be used for any purpose.

This looks like it's trying to form. The dry air will limit it somewhat, but I think it can become Bonnie or Colin. I'll also say that if we do get both Bonnie and Colin from 95L and 96L then this season is shaping up to be very active.

[KWT]

Pretty much a one cluster of storms, I've seen multicell clusters bigger then this then. Again there can be no doubt there is a circulation there and it is producing moderate to deep convection, so it may well meet the targets to become a TC. I think there is a chance for a short lived system.

[Ptarmigan]

If 95L developed, it would likely be one of the smallest tropical cyclones ever recorded. Interestingly Bonnie in 2004 was also very small.

[masaji79]

From the Visible loops there does seem to be some cyclonic turning. Probably won't get any kind of an upgrade unless there is a Hurricane Hunter flight through it, much like Marco back in '08

[KWT]

If 95L developed, it would likely be one of the smallest tropical cyclones ever recorded. Interestingly Bonnie in 2004 was also very small.

If convection holds and the winds strengthen then the NHC may well be tempted to upgrade to a TD, probably won't have time to go beyond that stage but its clearly got west winds so there is no doubt about any LLC, its just convective organisation thats been the issue and we are getting it now...just need to hold onto it.

[vbhoutex]

I am quite impressed by 95L at this point. It has a lot of fighting to do if it is going to develop, but it is sure acting like the little engine that could. If I didn't see the circulation associated with it I would write it off as a cluster of thunderstorms. I'll definitely be keeping an eye on it, but at this point it doesn't worry me except for the fact that if it develops enough it will make a weakness in the ridge that could draw 96L more NW or N than currently progged.