ATL : TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO - MODELS

[Ivanhater]

Lets remember the errors certain models had, the synoptic situation is nearly identical and the current location of 96L is nearly identical as well, the only difference is Alex had been upgraded near this point.

I would disagree, the difference this time is 95L that would make quite a weakness. This one depends on the timing of development.

[lebron23]

GFDL takes whatever is left of it into the TX LA Border
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/gfdl/2 ... /slp15.png

[KWT]

Lets remember the errors certain models had, the synoptic situation is nearly identical and the current location of 96L is nearly identical as well, the only difference is Alex had been upgraded near this point.

I would disagree, the difference this time is 95L that would make quite a weakness. This one depends on the timing of development.

That is certainly a wildcard and I weren't actually aware of an improvement in 95L's situation until after that post. If it can develop enough then it'll develop enough of a weakness to lift it up to the NW.

Still we can pay attention to the models biases nonetheless IMO, and those are the GFDL/CMC/GFS do tend to overdo weaknesses and do tend to be to far east in certain solutions.

[KFDM Meteorologist]

12Z EURO has landfall at Brownsville at 102 hours.

[KWT]

What does the Euro do with 95L by the way, whether it develops or not really could be the key difference from Alex as Ivanhater rightfully said.

[wxman22]

12z GFS has it hitting the middle Texas Coast

[KFDM Meteorologist]

What does the Euro do with 95L by the way, whether it develops or not really could be the key difference from Alex as Ivanhater rightfully said.

Does nothing with 95L.

[KFDM Meteorologist]

NEW exp. GFS is way south!

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwpara ... n_084l.gif

[cycloneye]

18z BAMMS

BAMMS goe to South Texas.

WHXX01 KWBC 041832
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1832 UTC SUN JUL 4 2010

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL962010) 20100704 1800 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
100704 1800 100705 0600 100705 1800 100706 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 16.7N 83.5W 18.6N 85.3W 20.6N 86.9W 22.2N 88.4W
BAMD 16.7N 83.5W 18.0N 84.8W 19.0N 86.0W 20.0N 87.0W
BAMM 16.7N 83.5W 18.2N 84.7W 19.6N 85.9W 21.0N 87.1W
LBAR 16.7N 83.5W 18.0N 84.7W 19.2N 86.1W 20.3N 87.6W
SHIP 30KTS 38KTS 46KTS 51KTS
DSHP 30KTS 38KTS 46KTS 44KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
100706 1800 100707 1800 100708 1800 100709 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 23.7N 89.8W 25.7N 92.9W 26.7N 96.6W 27.5N 100.7W
BAMD 20.7N 88.0W 21.4N 90.4W 21.4N 93.3W 21.5N 96.7W
BAMM 22.3N 88.3W 23.9N 91.2W 24.9N 95.0W 25.9N 99.4W
LBAR 21.3N 89.1W 23.6N 92.2W 25.9N 95.1W 27.7N 98.6W
SHIP 56KTS 66KTS 73KTS 73KTS
DSHP 50KTS 60KTS 66KTS 40KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 16.7N LONCUR = 83.5W DIRCUR = 310DEG SPDCUR = 10KT
LATM12 = 15.8N LONM12 = 81.9W DIRM12 = 291DEG SPDM12 = 11KT
LATM24 = 15.0N LONM24 = 79.9W
WNDCUR = 30KT RMAXWD = 45NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1009MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD = 120NM SDEPTH = S
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

$$

[Ivanhater]

NEW exp. GFS is way south!

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwpara ... n_084l.gif

Because it doesn't develop it

[KWT]

What does the Euro do with 95L by the way, whether it develops or not really could be the key difference from Alex as Ivanhater rightfully said.

Does nothing with 95L.

Ah so thats probably why the ECM is further south because there is nothing there to lift out 96L and so it just trundles westwards with the upper still perfectly intact and only starts to lift out in the BoC.

Interesting to see it starts of on a NW heading as well....

[Weatherfreak000]

The EURO Model is significantly poor from longer distances according to statisical averages. The highest long distance model from 2009 was the CMC.

However, the EURO is flat out statistically the best from within 24 hours.

[Dean4Storms]

I can see the turning near where the models are initiating this low but it looks to be elongated north to south for a good 150 miles. With that in mind everything will depend on where a LLC sets up and takes over along the trough as to where this ultimately ends up but I would say the synoptics favor a western half of the Gulf track for sure.

[KWT]

The EURO Model is significantly poor from longer distances according to statisical averages. The highest long distance model from 2009 was the CMC.

However, the EURO is flat out statistically the best from within 24 hours.

Ah yeah but the CMC does good in troughy conditions, this year I think with La Nina your going to find the CMC won't do well...lets not forget the CMC nailed Bill, which took up nearly half of the advisories of the entire basin more or less it seemed, so of course the CMC was going to do well with that...this year will be more like 08 with the broad synoptics which saw the ECM nail many systems.

Models trending towards Texas, I think if 95L does try to develop then a Texas system is quite probable given the models are actually all a little to the north of Alex.

[Wx_Warrior]

Didn't take it long to get back to normal on here....Ivan disputing pro mets & the EURO.

[TexasF6]

Initialization is in the wrong spot on these runs......

[KWT]

We don't really have a center spot to start the models from at the moment, I think though the NHC estimates were spot on with Alex so I'll go with thier starting point for now, though it may well form more to the NE I agree.

[TwisterFanatic]

Initialization is in the wrong spot on these runs......

I agree, i think they go too far south.

[Ivanhater]

18z GFS shifts to Louisiana

[ROCK]

interesting GFS...but bad news for the oil spill