ATL: INVEST 95L - DISCUSSION

[KWT]

Whats for sure is some people are going to be in for a surprise when they see poor old 95L now looking like a TD!

Got some impressive turning and a nice convective burst going up over the systems center. Wonder what the NHC will do with this...

[Ivanhater]

System getting organized fast. Could see Tropical Storm Watches/Warnings issued for central and western Louisiana or parts of southeast Texas before the night is over. Wouldn't surprise me.

Looks to be moving north now and being so small I don't think it would extend that far. However, this all depending on if there is an upgrade.

[wxman57]

One good thing is that cloud tops began warming in the past hour or so. And it looks like some dry air on the NW side. Technically, though, it qualifies as a TD. Very similar in appearance and size to Marco of 2008.

[chzzdekr81]

System getting organized fast. Could see Tropical Storm Watches/Warnings issued for central and western Louisiana or parts of southeast Texas before the night is over. Wouldn't surprise me.

Wouldn't surprise me either. This thing is really wrapping up fast.

[KWT]

One good thing is that cloud tops began warming in the past hour or so. And it looks like some dry air on the NW side. Technically, though, it qualifies as a TD. Very similar in appearance and size to Marco of 2008.

I wonder whether the NHC may not upgrade it simply because it could go down as fast as it went up, I really can't see any reason not to upgrade it though based on what we are seeing.

[Ikester]

System getting organized fast. Could see Tropical Storm Watches/Warnings issued for central and western Louisiana or parts of southeast Texas before the night is over. Wouldn't surprise me.

Looks to be moving north now and being so small I don't think it would extend that far. However, this all depending on if there is an upgrade.

True. This reminds me very much of the storm that devastated Darwin, Australia back on Christmas Day, 1974. The gale winds extended out only 30 miles. Then of course there's Marco. The thing with Tracy, she was a Cat. 4 hurricane/cyclone with a 950 mb pressure. Alex had 947 mb and was a Cat. 2. Just goes to show that SIZE DOES MATTER.

[ConvergenceZone]

If it is moving North, thank goodness it doesn't have much open water ahead of it.....Could make it to a depression or weak tropical storm though before landfall, which would be pretty amazing in itself considering they were calling for only 10% development.

[CrazyC83]

Can they issue TS Warnings on an unclassified system?

[Ikester]

Can they issue TS Warnings on an unclassified system?

No, I don't think they can.

[chzzdekr81]

Can they issue TS Warnings on an unclassified system?

The storm would most likely be upgraded to a TD before they issue warnings/watches.

[CrazyC83]

How much trouble would it be for the original flight today with Recon to go on as scheduled? From Biloxi to the storm would be a 45 min. flight. They really should consider it. Do they ever go ahead with canceled missions?

Not sure, they would need a few hours to prepare the plane for the mission. I would think the earliest they could leave if they prepared now is about 8:45 pm CDT, which would get them there in time for a possible 10 pm CDT advisory if a tropical cyclone.

[ozonepete]

One good thing is that cloud tops began warming in the past hour or so. And it looks like some dry air on the NW side. Technically, though, it qualifies as a TD. Very similar in appearance and size to Marco of 2008.

The faster this develops the more north it will go, correct?

[cycloneye]

The latest.

[CrazyC83]

Looks like a solid little CDO there...maybe an eye feature embedded in that?

[Ikester]

I'm very surprised the NHC hasn't issued a special statement or something...

[KWT]

If it is moving North, thank goodness it doesn't have much open water ahead of it.....Could make it to a depression or weak tropical storm though before landfall, which would be pretty amazing in itself considering they were calling for only 10% development.

Indeed, this one has really snuck up on us all, just goes to show what can happen in the tropics really!

Anyway looks like its moving about west now, but I can't imagine it will stay on that track for much longer though. I'd imagine probably heading towards Sw.LA from the looks of things, probably has 12-18hrs over water still...

Note its going west of where some of the models were progging.

[Yankeegirl]

I dont think we need anymore rain.... uggggg......more to watch......

[Ikester]

If it is moving North, thank goodness it doesn't have much open water ahead of it.....Could make it to a depression or weak tropical storm though before landfall, which would be pretty amazing in itself considering they were calling for only 10% development.

Indeed, this one has really snuck up on us all, just goes to show what can happen in the tropics really!

Anyway looks like its moving about west now, but I can't imagine it will stay on that track for much longer though. I'd imagine probably heading towards Sw.LA from the looks of things, probably has 12-18hrs over water still...

Note its going west of where some of the models were progging.

I don't know where you got a 270 degree heading at. It looks to be heading due north right now.

[Ikester]

Upon further inspection, it may be the expanding CDO that is making for an optical illusion. It may not be moving much at all.

[kevin]

Looks like the cloud tops are warming.