Caribbean - Central America Weather

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
311 PM AST SUN JUL 4 2010

.SYNOPSIS...WEAK TUTT WILL GENERALLY REMAIN LOCATED ACROSS OR
NEAR THE LOCAL AREA THROUGH MONDAY...BEFORE BEING PUSHED WEST AND
FILLING MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY...AS AN UPPER LEVEL
HIGH NOSES INTO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN LATER TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY AND PROBABLY FRIDAY ALSO.

&&

.DISCUSSION...THE SOMEWHAT "DRIER" AIR MASS WITH SAHARAN DUST THAT
HAS BEEN AFFECTING THE LOCAL AREA FOR THE FEW DAYS...LINGERED
ACROSS THE FA TODAY...ALLOWING FOR ANOTHER DAY OF HAZY SUNSHINE
AND CLOUDS...BUT SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED AGAIN...THIS TIME MAINLY OVER THE
SOUTHWEST QUARTER OF PUERTO RICO. HAZE FROM THE SAHARAN DUST IS
ALREADY THINNING AND BACK EDGE ON SATELLITE IS MOVING INTO THE
U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AT THIS TIME. THIS IS ALSO THE LEADING EDGE OF
AN AREA OF INCREASED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FOR TONIGHT...AND EXPECT
AN OVERALL INCREASE IN CLOUDS...SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A COUPLE OF
THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE EAST HALF OF THE FA.

THE WEATHER EARLY MONDAY SHOULD START OKAY...BUT AN APPROACHING
TROPICAL WAVE WILL SPREAD MOISTURE...CLOUDINESS...SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS INTO/ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE
WAVE AXIS IS STILL EXPECTED TO PASS LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
EARLY TUESDAY...WITH A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN CLOUDINESS...
SHOWERS...THUNDERSTORMS AND GUSTY WINDS EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOCAL
ISLANDS...THAT WILL PROBABLY LINGER THROUGH MUCH OF TUESDAY...AS
THIS TROPICAL WAVE APPEARS THAT IT WILL REMAIN FAIRLY ACTIVE OVER
THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN UNDERNEATH LIGHT TO MODERATE AND DIVERGENT
UPPER LEVEL FLOW ALONG THE WEST SIDE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER
LEVEL HIGH.

FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AND PROBABLY FRIDAY ALSO...EXPECT AT
LEAST A BIT "DRIER" AIR MASS AND A NEW ROUND OF SAHARAN DUST TO
ENCOMPASS THE LOCAL ISLANDS BEHIND THE DEPARTING TROPICAL WAVE.
HOWEVER...AS HAS BEEN THE CASE LATELY...WE WILL STILL HAVE
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY.

&&

.AVIATION...BRIEF MVFR OR EVEN IFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST QUARTER OF PUERTO RICO...INCLUDING NEAR TJPS
AND MAINLY SOUTH OF TJMZ THROUGH 04/23Z...WITH PREVAILING VFR
CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE. MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL
LOCAL TAF SITES OVERNIGHT...EXPECT BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE IN PASSING SHRA.

&&

.MARINE...EXPECT WINDS OF 20 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEAS OF 7 FEET OR
LESS ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY. SMALL
BOAT OPERATORS SHOULD SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION ACROSS THE LOCAL
OFF SHORE CARIBBEAN COASTAL WATERS AND THE ANEGADA PASSAGE
TONIGHT. A TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA LATE
MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY... BRINGING ACTIVE WEATHER...WITH SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS...AND ROUGH AND LOCALLY
HAZARDOUS SEAS TO THE LOCAL WATERS.

[abajan]

Whereas this morning here was just a bit cloudy and hazy (and pretty windy too at times), it's now overcast with rain and a fair amount of thunder.
Shutting down computer to prevent damage...

Be safe, dry Abajan and continue to keep us informed as possible with this active twave.
Gustywind

Now it's just overcast and the rain and thunder has long passed. Satellite imagery seems to suggest that the worst has passed. Knowing how the weather here normally works, I expect some additional showers tonight and fair weather by daybreak. Time will tell.

[Gustywind]

Whereas this morning here was just a bit cloudy and hazy (and pretty windy too at times), it's now overcast with rain and a fair amount of thunder.
Shutting down computer to prevent damage...

Be safe, dry Abajan and continue to keep us informed as possible with this active twave.
Gustywind

Now it's just overcast and the rain and thunder has long passed. Satellite imagery seems to suggest that the worst has passed. Knowing how the weather here normally works, I expect some additional showers tonight and fair weather by daybreak. Time will tell.

Thanks Abajan with your precious infos as usual. Glad to see that the worst is moving away from your area! Whereas Martinica, Guadeloupe and the Northern Leewards are under an yellow alert for a risk of strong showers and tstorms. Meteo-France Martinica expected amount of rain up to 100 to 150 millimeters even more 200 millimeters near the moutains. We continue to monitor this active twave, i will keep you informed too.
Stay safe and dry all my carib friend.
Gustywind

[Gustywind]

LATEST

[tropicana]

Glad you are safe abajan!!

Rainfall amounts in the Southern Caribbean today, Sun Jul 4 2010
include:-

Rockley, S. Barbados 19.0mm
Grantley Adams, Barbados 57.6mm
Long Bay, Barbados (just SW of Grantley Adams) 34.3mm
Point Salines, Grenada 4mm (overnight)
Hewannora, St Lucia trace

Couva, South Trinidad 11.2mm ( max temp 26.2C 79F)
Piarco, Trinidad 14.0mm ( up to 2pm) (max temp 26.4C 80F)
Maraval, W. Trinidad 5.3mm (max temp 27.7C 82F)

-justin-

[cycloneye]

KNHC 042335
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT SUN JUL 4 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A SMALL BUT WELL ORGANIZED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS LOCATED ABOUT 125
MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTRAL LOUISIANA COAST. THIS LOW IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTHWARD AT 5 TO 10 MPH OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS OR
SO...THEN TURN NORTHWESTWARD AFTER THAT. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS
ARE ONLY MARGINALLY CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT...AND THERE IS A LOW
CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
BEFORE IT MOVES INLAND BY MONDAY EVENING.

A VIGOROUS TROPICAL DISTURBANCE LOCATED OVER THE NORTHWESTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA IS BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED. ALTHOUGH THERE DOES NOT
APPEAR TO BE A CLOSED SURFACE CIRCULATION AT THIS TIME...NEARBY
SHIP AND BUOY OBSERVATIONS INDICATED WINDS OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
BRIEFLY OCCURRED IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS SYSTEM DURING THE PAST
FEW HOURS. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT
OF THIS DISTURBANCE AS IT MOVES GENERALLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10
TO 15 MPH...AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD DEVELOP DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...50 PERCENT...OF THIS
SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER
GRAND CAYMAN ISLAND AND MUCH OF THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA OVER
THE NEXT DAY OR SO.

A BROAD TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 150 MILES NORTHEAST OF
THE BAHAMAS IS PRODUCING A LARGE AREA OF CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS.
THIS SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY MOVING EASTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH...BUT IS
EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY SLOW DOWN AND POSSIBLY BECOME STATIONARY EAST
OF THE BAHAMAS. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE ONLY MARGINALLY CONDUCIVE FOR
DEVELOPMENT AND THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER APPROACHING THE LESSER ANTILLES WILL
BRING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS TO THE LEEWARD AND
NORTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS...THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...AND PUERTO RICO
DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS COULD
ALLOW FOR SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS DISTURBANCE AS IT MOVES
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 15 MPH. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...20
PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI/STEWART

[cycloneye]

Plenty of rain getting closer to the Islands.

Martinique Radar

[abajan]

Man everywhere seems to be popping now. I know it isn't quite the time for Cape Verde systems but the area south of those Islands looks suspicious to me.

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1050 PM AST SUN JUL 4 2010

.UPDATE...QUICK PASSING ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS
NORTHERN AND EASTERN PUERTO RICO OVERNIGHT...AS WELL AS ACROSS THE
VI...AS THE SAHARAN AIR THAT BROUGHT HAZY SKIES TO THE REGION THE
PAST SEVERAL DAYS TRACKS WEST OF THE LOCAL AREA. EXPECT THE
NEGATIVELY TILTED TROPICAL WAVE APPROACHING THE WINDWARD ISLANDS
THIS EVENING TO BRING A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN SHOWER ACTIVITY TO
THE VI AND EASTERN SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO LATE MONDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY MORNING...WITH THE AXIS OF THIS WAVE EXPECTED TO MOVE
ACROSS PUERTO RICO DURING THE DAY TUESDAY. MADE SOME MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FORECAST FOR THE OVERNIGHT AND MONDAY TIME
PERIODS...BUT INHERITED FORECAST ALREADY COVERED APPROACHING WAVE
WELL...SO NO OTHER CHANGES NECESSARY TO FORECAST THIS EVENING.

&&

.AVIATION...SOME ISOLATED SMALL SHOWER ACTIVITY IS PRECEDING A
MODERATELY STRONG TROPICAL WAVE THAT WAS ABOUT 430 MILES SOUTHEAST
OF TJSJ AT 04/0230Z. THIS WAVE IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THROUGH TNCM AND
TKPK BETWEEN 05/10-14Z...THROUGH TISX AND TIST BETWEEN 05/16-20Z AND
THROUGH PUERTO RICO AFT 06/00Z WITH MVFR CONDS. WINDS WILL INCREASE
TO 10 TO 20 KTS AND SHIFT FROM NORTHEAST TO SOUTHEAST DURING
PASSAGE. EXPECT CONVECTION FROM 05/17-22Z IN SOUTHWEST PUERTO RICO
WITH MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS AND MVFR CONDS NEAR OR OVER TJMZ AND
BRIEFLY AT TJPS.

[cycloneye]

Man everywhere seems to be popping now. I know it isn't quite the time for Cape Verde systems but the area south of those Islands looks suspicious to me.

Exactly, is like September out there now.Can you imagine when the peak of the season arrives,how the activity will be?

[Gustywind]

Man everywhere seems to be popping now. I know it isn't quite the time for Cape Verde systems but the area south of those Islands looks suspicious to me.

Exactly, is like September out there now.Can you imagine when the peak of the season arrives,how the activity will be?

a nightmare!!! Week after week twaves are being fatter and fatter. Something to keep amready an eye on!

[cycloneye]

Good morning.Lets see how much rain this tropical wave brings to the Eastern Caribbean.


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
611 AM AST MON JUL 5 2010

.SYNOPSIS...STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO EXTEND FROM
THE NORTH CENTRAL ATLANTIC SOUTHWEST TO THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN
THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TUTT LOW WILL REMAIN
ACROSS OR CLOSE TO THE REGION TODAY WHILE FILLING LATE TONIGHT AND
EARLY TUESDAY. A TILTED TROPICAL WAVE...JUST ALONG 59 WEST THIS
MORNING...IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN LATE TODAY
AND TONIGHT...BRINGING AN INCREASE IN SHOWERS...THUNDERSTORMS AND
POSSIBLE GUSTY WINDS ACROSS THE FA.

&&

.DISCUSSION...THE DOPPLER WEATHER RADAR DETECTED A SLIGHT INCREASE
IN MOISTURE WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY MAINLY
ACROSS THE SURROUNDING WATERS...ACROSS THE EASTERN AND
NORTHEASTERN PUERTO AS WELL AS ACROSS THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
OVERNIGHT AND EARLY IN THE MORNING. HOWEVER DUE TO THE RAPID
MOVEMENT OF THE SHOWERS...THE TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS WERE
GENERALLY MINIMAL. THE GFS MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A SLIGHT
INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. THE ENERGY
PROVIDED BY THIS MOISTURE...THE STRONG DAYTIME HEATING...SEA
BREEZE CONVERGENCE AND LOCAL OROGRAPHIC EFFECTS WILL INDUCE A
ROUND OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
INTERIOR AND SOUTHWESTERN PUERTO RICO THIS AFTERNOON. HAZE FROM
THE SAHARAN DUST IS ALREADY THINNING AND BACK EDGE ON SATELLITE
WILL MOVE OUT OF THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO THIS
MORNING. MIMIC TPW FROM CIMSS SHOWED AN SMALL AREA OF RELATIVELY
DRY AIR EXTENDED FROM THE LOCAL ISLANDS TO JUST ABOUT 2 HUNDRED
50 MILES TO THE EAST...AND THEN THE BULK OF MOISTURE ASSOCIATED
WITH THE APPROACHING TROPICAL WAVE. THIS TILTED TROPICAL WAVE...
ALONG 59 WEST THIS MORNING...WILL SPREAD A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN
MOISTURE ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA LATE TODAY...TONIGHT AND TUESDAY.
THE WAVE AXIS IS EXPECTED TO PASS ACROSS THE REGION LATE
TONIGHT...PRODUCING A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN CLOUDINESS...
SHOWERS...THUNDERSTORMS AND POSSIBLE GUSTY WINDS ACROSS THE LOCAL
ISLANDS AND COASTAL WATERS. BOTH THE NAM AND GFS MODEL GUIDANCE
SUGGEST WINDS UP TO 25 KNOTS WITH THE PASSAGE ON THIS WAVE...BUT
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN COASTAL WATERS. PWAT VALUES WILL
RISE FROM AROUND 1.60 INCHES OVERNIGHT TO AROUND 2.4 INCHES LATE
TODAY AND TUESDAY...DECREASING AGAIN BELOW 2.0 INCHES BY
WEDNESDAY. AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THE WAVE...A GENERALLY DRIER AIR
MASS AND HAZY SKIES...WILL AGAIN ENCOMPASS THE REGION WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY...BEFORE ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE APPROACHES TO THE
LOCAL ISLANDS DURING THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY IS PRECEDING A MODERATELY
STRONG TROPICAL WAVE THAT WAS ABOUT 250 MILES SOUTHEAST OF TJSJ
AT 05/10Z. THIS WAVE IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THROUGH TNCM AND TKPK
BETWEEN 05/12-14Z...THROUGH TISX AND TIST BETWEEN 05/16-20Z AND
THROUGH PUERTO RICO AFT 06/00Z WITH MVFR CONDS. WINDS WILL
INCREASE TO 10 TO 20 KTS AND SHIFT FROM NORTHEAST TO SOUTHEAST
DURING PASSAGE. EXPECT CONVECTION FROM 05/17-22Z IN SOUTHWEST
PUERTO RICO WITH MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS AND MVFR CONDS NEAR OR OVER
TJMZ AND BRIEFLY AT TJPS.

&&

.MARINE...WINDS WILL INCREASE UP TO 20 KNOTS AND SEAS UP TO 7
FEET ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS TONIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY. SMALL
BOAT OPERATORS SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION ACROSS THE LOCAL OFFSHORE
ATLANTIC AND CARIBBEAN COASTAL WATERS AND ACROSS THE ANEGADA AND
CARIBBEAN PASSAGES TODAY. A TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
LOCAL AREA LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...BRINGING ACTIVE WEATHER...
WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...GUSTY WINDS...AND ROUGH AND
LOCALLY HAZARDOUS SEAS TO THE LOCAL WATERS. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES
WILL BE IN EFFECT FOR THE OFFSHORE ATLANTIC AND CARIBBEAN WATERS
AND FOR THE ANEGADA AND CARRIBEAN PASSAGES STARTING TUESDAY
MORNING.

[Gustywind]

Good news for us this morning as the main convective activity moves well northeast of the islands. Given Meteo-France overall activity has diminshed and a return in green alert is quite possible this afternoon. Whereas moderate showers and isolated cells of tstorms are highly possible this morning. Whe must continue to be vigilant as usual but hopefully we should not have much more from this active twave.

[cycloneye]

Good news that this wave wont develop while is in the Eastern Caribbean.

TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT MON JUL 5 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN DISORGANIZED IN ASSOCIATION WITH A
SMALL AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 60 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE NOT FAVORABLE
FOR DEVELOPMENT...AND THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF THIS
SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE BEFORE IT MOVES INLAND BY
TONIGHT OR TUESDAY. THIS LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTHWARD OR
NORTHWESTWARD AT 5 TO 10 MPH OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO.

THE TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA HAS BECOME
LESS ORGANIZED OVERNIGHT AND THE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT SCHEDULED
FOR THIS AFTERNOON HAS BEEN CANCELED. HOWEVER...ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS ARE CONDUCIVE FOR SOME DEVELOPMENT...AND A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION COULD STILL FORM OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS THIS
SYSTEM MOVES NORTHWESTWARD AT 15 MPH. THERE IS A MEDIUM
CHANCE...40 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE CAYMAN
ISLANDS...THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...WESTERN CUBA AND THE NORTHWESTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.

A TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE FAR EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA IS PRODUCING AN
AREA OF DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE LESSER
ANTILLES AND ADJACENT WATERS. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE NOT FAVORABLE
FOR SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM AS IT MOVES
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 15 MPH OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. REGARDLESS OF
DEVELOPMENT...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE
IN THE LESSER ANTILLES AND PUERTO RICO DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE

[Gustywind]

Good news that this wave wont develop while is in the Eastern Caribbean.

TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT MON JUL 5 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN DISORGANIZED IN ASSOCIATION WITH A
SMALL AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 60 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE NOT FAVORABLE
FOR DEVELOPMENT...AND THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF THIS
SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE BEFORE IT MOVES INLAND BY
TONIGHT OR TUESDAY. THIS LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTHWARD OR
NORTHWESTWARD AT 5 TO 10 MPH OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO.

THE TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA HAS BECOME
LESS ORGANIZED OVERNIGHT AND THE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT SCHEDULED
FOR THIS AFTERNOON HAS BEEN CANCELED. HOWEVER...ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS ARE CONDUCIVE FOR SOME DEVELOPMENT...AND A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION COULD STILL FORM OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS THIS
SYSTEM MOVES NORTHWESTWARD AT 15 MPH. THERE IS A MEDIUM
CHANCE...40 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE CAYMAN
ISLANDS...THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...WESTERN CUBA AND THE NORTHWESTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.

A TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE FAR EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA IS PRODUCING AN
AREA OF DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE LESSER
ANTILLES AND ADJACENT WATERS. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE NOT FAVORABLE
FOR SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM AS IT MOVES
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 15 MPH OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. REGARDLESS OF
DEVELOPMENT...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE
IN THE LESSER ANTILLES AND PUERTO RICO DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE

right Luis some rain but nothing to kill a cat or a dog

[HUC]

A STONG THUNDER SHOWER OVER MY AREA BETWEEN 940 AND 10 AM. Gusts to 30mph and 30mm of rain in my rain gauge.
Now overcast with medium clouds ( alto stratus) Cb isolated.
We just had a convective cell developping over our head. That is the rainy season guys!It's name:" L'Hivernage" as we call this period in the french carribean islands...and my mango's tree is full of delicious fruits:i eat 3 to 4 each day...Thank's God for all of that

[cycloneye]

The latest on radar.The wave is creeping closer to Puerto Rico.

[Gustywind]

A STONG THUNDER SHOWER OVER MY AREA BETWEEN 940 AND 10 AM. Gusts to 30mph and 30mm of rain in my rain gauge.
Now overcast with medium clouds ( alto stratus) Cb isolated.
We just had a convective cell developping over our head. That is the rainy season guys!It's name:" L'Hivernage" as we call this period in the french carribean islands...and my mango's tree is full of delicious fruits:i eat 3 to 4 each day...Thank's God for all of that

Thanks for this info HUC, glad to see that all is ok in spite of the strong tstorm For the mangos enjoy it it's a nice dessert too .
Nothing special in my location HUC, pretty rainy this morning, but it's raining on and off since one or two hours. Weather is grey and sad. Once again we have at least a twave per week since the last 3 weeks, nice average ... hopefully it's "only active twaves" not TD or TS even Cane . Things continue to heating up week after week for sure.

[Macrocane]

...and my mango's tree is full of delicious fruits:i eat 3 to 4 each day...Thank's God for all of that

Do you still have mangoes? here in El Salvador the mango season is over .

By the way, after the rains produced by Alex we've had drier conditions with only moderate and scattered showers, yesterday rainfall and temperatures:

July 4, 2010

Temperatures

Code: Select all

Acajutla          29 mm/1.14 inches
Santa Ana         1.5 mm/0.06 inches
Ilopango          25 mm/0.98 inches
Santiago de Maria 19 mm/0.75 inches
La Union          26 mm/1.02 inches

Rainfall

Code: Select all

Acajutla         min:22.9°C/73.2°F      max:31.5°C/88.7°F
Santa Ana        min:18.9°C/66.0°F      max:29.7°C/85.5°F
San Salvador     min:19.9°C/67.8°F      max:29.2°C/84.6°F
Las Pilas        min:12.9°C/55.2°F      max:22.0°C/71.6°F
San Miguel       min:23.7°C/74.7°F      max:33.1°C/91.6°F


[bvigal]

unsettled weather moving in...