ATL: TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO - DISCUSSION

[cycloneye]

Caymam Islands Observations=Strong Winds blowing

[HURAKAN]

Latest

[hurricaneCW]

96L looks great for a developing system and I think there is a great chance for it to become Bonnie over the next few days. I don't think 95L will develop but since it's so compact, those kinds of systems tend to spin up quite rapidly so I'm not counting it out yet. Models showed something off of the southeast coast but I don't think conditions will be conducive enough for development. I'm interested in the wave east of the islands, I think that might eventually become another storm in a few days as well. Shear seems to be calming down around that area and it doesn't have to worry about dry air.

I think we could see our B and C storms before July 15th. I don't know where they will hit but there won't be any fish storms this half of July.

Happy 4th of July Everyone

[KWT]

Will be interesting to see whether the LLC decides to try and relocate towards the deeper convection...

July is firing up just like you'd expect in a huge season...

[johngaltfla]

Will be interesting to see whether the LLC decides to try and relocate towards the deeper convection...

July is firing up just like you'd expect in a huge season...

It's my fault. I predicted the outlier this year and said there would be 31 named storms.

It doesn't mean I WANTED 31 named storms but WOW, I haven't seen the tropics this busy, this early in years and this is before the Cape Verde train cranks up in August.

[KWT]

Its still behind 2005 at this stage (I believe TD4 had formed by now in 2005) but certainly is 95/96L formed we will be well on our way!

Anyway looks like slow development looks likely, with 95L strengthening I wouldn't be at all surprised to see this being a Texas threat down the line, esp one 95L starts to try and lift out.

[wxman57]

Ship obs in the vicinity of 96L do not indicate any turning (rotation/LLC). Lowest surface pressure is near the coast of Honduras. I'd look for an LLC to form toward the southern side of convection. Faster it develops, the farther north eventual landfall in western Gulf could be. If it waits until past the Yucatan, then probably south of Alex. But I think it has "the look" of a developing TC now. Maybe an LLC by tomorrow if convection persists. Could be a TS before reaching the Yucatan.

[cycloneye]

ozonepete, to let you know that I deleited your first post with 95L image,my replie and your replie.All is good my friend.

[KWT]

Yeah I agree Wxman57 this does look like its starting to get that look of developing. The thing I do think may happen though is if any LLC does try to develop it may well do some a little to the NE of where the lowest pressures are, that looks like the best location of development and the convection really is starting to strengthen in that region now.

Could be upto 3 TC's by the end of Tuesday for the 2010 season...

[CrazyC83]

This looks to be almost a carbon copy of Alex...95L and 96L becoming a possible Bonnie and Clyde, er, Colin?

[Thunder44]

A new floater on this one now. Very good outflow. Just needs to get something going on the surface:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/vis-l.jpg

[KWT]

Yeah its quite amazing how this one looks like following Alex at least in the short term, though I think 95L could end up inducing enough of a weakness to lift this out perhaps a little more than we saw with Alex but we shall see.

I think this one could well develop before the Yucatan/Belize but I doubt it'll have time to really strengthen too much before then....but I do think that we will get a NS with this.

[Dean4Storms]

Ship obs in the vicinity of 96L do not indicate any turning (rotation/LLC). Lowest surface pressure is near the coast of Honduras. I'd look for an LLC to form toward the southern side of convection. Faster it develops, the farther north eventual landfall in western Gulf could be. If it waits until past the Yucatan, then probably south of Alex. But I think it has "the look" of a developing TC now. Maybe an LLC by tomorrow if convection persists. Could be a TS before reaching the Yucatan.

Yea, I see no LL clouds west of 85W moving off toward the east over the Carib. waters, I see some mid to UL clouds but nothing LL. I think we definitely have some mid-level turning, but nothing at the surface as of yet.

[MGC]

Yep, 96L is acquiring the look of a potential TC. Cyclonic spin is quite evident on the visable satellite loop. Looks to me like a surface low when and if it forms will be a near where Alex eventually closed off. Entire cloud pattern appears to be moving NW. Sadly, it looks like a GOM season is shaping up.....MGC

[Ivanhater]

This system is a go imo

[Dean4Storms]

This system is a go imo

I would agree unless the convection dies off tonight.

[Sanibel]

Looks like another one twisting-up. Alex showed us what the deal was as far as favorability. This looks like it is pulse-forming into another cyclone.

[ROCK]

This system is a go imo

yep....it is....late night model watching and the warden calling me OCD...here we go again...

[Ivanhater]

Yep ROCK, and looking at the wave now entering the Caribbean now, doesn't look like a break anytime soon

[Portastorm]

ROCK, have you rested up enough from last week?!

You and Ivan had some great late-night exchanges with Alex. I got to the point where when I woke up at 6, I knew I could check the Alex model thread and get the low-down from you two. It was great!