ATL: TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO - DISCUSSION

[KWT]

Looks like another one twisting-up. Alex showed us what the deal was as far as favorability. This looks like it is pulse-forming into another cyclone.

Yeah I agree Sanibel with the whole plusing system, I think this one really gets going during Dmax and we may well see a LLC try and start forming with this one. I suspect recon goes into this one tomorrow unless it degrades somewhat, but I'd be surprised if that happened.

[Ivanhater]

low level steering would appear to be NW or NNW for now

[Ivanhater]

[KWT]

That really is starting to get the look of a developing system, you can see the midlevel turning quite well even on the static image there Ivanhater!

Thinking this will go upto 50% by tomorrow morning.

[vacanechaser]

That really is starting to get the look of a developing system, you can see the midlevel turning quite well even on the static image there Ivanhater!

Thinking this will go upto 50% by tomorrow morning.

yep... starting to look very impressive... would not be surprise me if it were higher than 50 by morning...



Jesse V. Bass III
http://www.vastormphoto.com
Hurricane Intercept Research Team

[KWT]

Looks like being another large system again as well, so may well see some more interesting pressure-wind relationship with 96L if it does develop.

I think this one may well be a little further north than Alex, and in that case we would be looking at a Texas threat...even if the track is broadly similar.

[hurricaneCW]

Cloud tops are warming a bit but the organization continues to improve, I see more inflow from the south and southwest and some outflow to the north. There is already some turning, just not at the low levels yet but that may change by tomorrow. If it does trek towards the same area as Alex, the only good news is that the ocean heat content is much lower now because of Alex. I don't know about the upper level pattern, if someone has any info on that, it would be helpful.

The bad news is that this disturbance could head further north thus impacted the U.S. and having a greater impact on the oil spill area than Alex. I'm thinking Bonnie forms by Tuesday afternoon.

[cycloneye]

Up to 50%


ABNT20 KNHC 042335
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT SUN JUL 4 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A SMALL BUT WELL ORGANIZED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS LOCATED ABOUT 125
MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTRAL LOUISIANA COAST. THIS LOW IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTHWARD AT 5 TO 10 MPH OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS OR
SO...THEN TURN NORTHWESTWARD AFTER THAT. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS
ARE ONLY MARGINALLY CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT...AND THERE IS A LOW
CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
BEFORE IT MOVES INLAND BY MONDAY EVENING.

A VIGOROUS TROPICAL DISTURBANCE LOCATED OVER THE NORTHWESTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA IS BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED. ALTHOUGH THERE DOES NOT
APPEAR TO BE A CLOSED SURFACE CIRCULATION AT THIS TIME...NEARBY
SHIP AND BUOY OBSERVATIONS INDICATED WINDS OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
BRIEFLY OCCURRED IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS SYSTEM DURING THE PAST
FEW HOURS. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT
OF THIS DISTURBANCE AS IT MOVES GENERALLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10
TO 15 MPH...AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD DEVELOP DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...50 PERCENT...OF THIS
SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER
GRAND CAYMAN ISLAND AND MUCH OF THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA OVER
THE NEXT DAY OR SO.

A BROAD TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 150 MILES NORTHEAST OF
THE BAHAMAS IS PRODUCING A LARGE AREA OF CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS.
THIS SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY MOVING EASTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH...BUT IS
EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY SLOW DOWN AND POSSIBLY BECOME STATIONARY EAST
OF THE BAHAMAS. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE ONLY MARGINALLY CONDUCIVE FOR
DEVELOPMENT AND THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER APPROACHING THE LESSER ANTILLES WILL
BRING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS TO THE LEEWARD AND
NORTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS...THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...AND PUERTO RICO
DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS COULD
ALLOW FOR SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS DISTURBANCE AS IT MOVES
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 15 MPH. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...20
PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI/STEWART

[Ivanhater]

4 circles.....what a slow July

[chzzdekr81]

4 circles.....what a slow July

I had a question. There are 4 areas of interest, but on my computer, I only see two circles on NHC's graphic. What's up with that?

[wxman57]

Well, back to hurricane shifts tomorrow. Canceled my fireworks watching for tonight as I now have an early day shift tomorrow. At least it looks like I won't get a call at 3:45am for the NHC upgrading 95L now. Could well have a TD in 24 hours in the NW Caribbean. I'm thinking NE Mexico to lower TX coast again. Alex part II.

[Ivanhater]

It hasn't been updated yet..Graphics should be out shortly

[TheBurn]

[chzzdekr81]

It hasn't been updated yet..Graphics should be out shortly

Thank you.

[Ivanhater]

Happy 4th

[KyleEverett]

So, we have at least Bonnie for sure. I wonder if we get to Earl.

[KWT]

Well I think the thing to note about the discussion is the fact that ships have already observed 35kts winds so they well up the strength to 35kts on the next round of models...

I think recon will almost certainly be flying...

Also I think as wxman57 said, this looks like Alex pt2...I've got a sneaky feeling this may end up a little north of Alex though no where near as far east as GFS...Amazing start to July, I think 2 out of 4 of those develop.

[Infdidoll]

To the ATL:

Thanks for stealing all our tropical cyclones.

Yours truly,
The WPAC

p.s. Happy 4th of July!

[Brent]

4 circles.....what a slow July

I tell you, it's looking more and more like 2005 as the days go on.

I think this system is a GO. Would be very surprised if this isn't a TD tomorrow.

[Hurricane Andrew]

4 circles.....what a slow July

I tell you, it's looking more and more like 2005 as the days go on.

I think this system is a GO. Would be very surprised if this isn't a TD tomorrow.

It's July 4th. How many systems? F.O.U.R.