ATL: INVEST 95L - DISCUSSION

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Weatherfreak000

#321 Postby Weatherfreak000 » Sun Jul 04, 2010 4:36 pm

Diurnal Maximum should give it a chance to maybe make a push towards TD.
Last edited by Weatherfreak000 on Sun Jul 04, 2010 4:40 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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kevin

Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - DISCUSSION

#322 Postby kevin » Sun Jul 04, 2010 4:38 pm

Whats a diurnal maxima?
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#323 Postby Yankeegirl » Sun Jul 04, 2010 4:40 pm

thats when the storms explode at night..... kind of sorta.... like allison.... she popped up over night...
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - DISCUSSION

#324 Postby Brent » Sun Jul 04, 2010 4:43 pm

This reminds me of Humberto, Claudette, Allison, Alicia, Danny, the list goes on...
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - DISCUSSION

#325 Postby kevin » Sun Jul 04, 2010 4:44 pm

Is a pressure gradient of just 2 millibars enough for a tropical depression?
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#326 Postby Yankeegirl » Sun Jul 04, 2010 4:48 pm

allison and alicia, they did that.... and so did humberto, but didnt affect us.... you go to bed and there is nothing on the radar and when you get up, BOOM-storm sitting off the coast....
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - DISCUSSION

#327 Postby MGC » Sun Jul 04, 2010 4:49 pm

Looking at the long range radar out of Slidell, the convection near the center is moving to the north. Still don't think there will be enough time for 95L to be upgraded, but you never know in the tropics.......MGC
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - DISCUSSION

#328 Postby ozonepete » Sun Jul 04, 2010 4:58 pm

kevin wrote:Is a pressure gradient of just 2 millibars enough for a tropical depression?


Not sure what you mean...
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#329 Postby Stormcenter » Sun Jul 04, 2010 5:00 pm

Well I must say this should make for an interesting evening.

http://www.rap.ucar.edu/weather/satelli ... uration=12
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - DISCUSSION

#330 Postby Sanibel » Sun Jul 04, 2010 5:01 pm

I can't believe this little pip-squeak of a disturbance is going to develop. What kind of crazy year is this? It could end up being a tiny cyclone.
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#331 Postby Dean4Storms » Sun Jul 04, 2010 5:01 pm

I think it is drifting north if not a tad east of due north. Looking at both visible and WV imagery.
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#332 Postby KWT » Sun Jul 04, 2010 5:10 pm

As others have said, it probably IS a TD if we are going to be technical, its just whether the NHC pull the trigger with it...they probably just waiting to make sure convection doesn't suddenly totally decay.
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#333 Postby wxman57 » Sun Jul 04, 2010 5:11 pm

Ikester wrote:
CrazyC83 wrote:Can they issue TS Warnings on an unclassified system?


No, I don't think they can.


Yes, they can. This was discussed at the National Hurricane Conference and AMS conference on tropical meteorology this past spring. Bill Read did state that there could be a case when TS warnings would be issued for a disturbance that was expected to develop near shore. Whether they'd actually do it remains to be seen.

Convection does appear to be accelerating northward now. Maybe it'll continue to weaken and die out in the next few hours.
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#334 Postby Cryomaniac » Sun Jul 04, 2010 5:17 pm

The following is the opinion of Cryomaniac, and is not based on any evidence, meteorological or otherwise, as such it should not be used for any purpose

This looks very much like a TD right now. Whether the NHC will upgrade it is anyone's guess. Maybe they figure it will fall apart tomorrow because of dry air, but I think if it keeps this presentation overnight then they will have a serious problem not upgrading it.
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#335 Postby Dean4Storms » Sun Jul 04, 2010 5:30 pm

I'm wondering tonight if 95L deepens quickly enough if it will turn back more toward the NE, the NWS Mobile AFD mentions another low south of Apalachicola along the trough and you can see it spinning slowly and appears to be moving northward. I would think if 95L was to deepen it might move more along the trough?
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - DISCUSSION

#336 Postby HURAKAN » Sun Jul 04, 2010 5:45 pm

Image

Latest .. losing convection
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#337 Postby KWT » Sun Jul 04, 2010 6:02 pm

Yeah the convection is weakening a little bit right now but no doubt it was probably briefly a TD...but maybe the NHC were waiting to see if the convective pattern held...

Still a nice little surprise this one has been...
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - DISCUSSION

#338 Postby wxman57 » Sun Jul 04, 2010 6:11 pm

Looks like it was a brief flare up as shear let off but convection is now fading and moving away from the LLC. No development tonight, most likely.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - DISCUSSION

#339 Postby MGC » Sun Jul 04, 2010 6:16 pm

Lets hope 95L gets ashore so it don't have a chance to sit out over the water and fester. I'm wondering if 95L might have any impact on the future track or 96L in that it clould weaken the ridge that is expected to develope and shunt 96L off to the WNW?......MGC
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#340 Postby KWT » Sun Jul 04, 2010 6:19 pm

Well it'll be interesting to see whether the track of 95L does effect the track of 96L at all down the line?
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