ATL : TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO - MODELS

[Dean4Storms]

18z GFS shifts to Louisiana

Not deepening it much either, wonder how much more northward it goes if a deeper system?

[KFDM Meteorologist]

GFS way to far north. No surprise though.

[KWT]

The GFS wasn't that keen on developing Alex yet sure enough Alex did develop and strongly, so until we see a LLC the GFS may struggle if its anything like Alex...

No doubt the Euro will end up going back into deep Mexico next run!

[StormClouds63]

Didn't take it long to get back to normal on here....Ivan disputing pro mets & the EURO.

96L looks like another Alex scenario unless the ridge breaks down. IvanHater must never sleep.

[TwisterFanatic]

GFS way to far north. No surprise though.

[KWT]

I'd go for the ECM solution rather then the GFS solution if only because the current synoptic evolution is rather similar to Alex and we all saw the way GFS overdid the weakness that time around no reason why it won't be the same this time.

[Wx_Warrior]

Here is the para GFS...102h

[Wx_Warrior]

hwrf 18z

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/hwrftc2.cgi?time=2010070418-invest96l&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=Animation

[Macrocane]

The GFS wasn't that keen on developing Alex yet sure enough Alex did develop and strongly, so until we see a LLC the GFS may struggle if its anything like Alex...

No doubt the Euro will end up going back into deep Mexico next run!

IMO The GFS has not been very good forecasting the development of some cyclones this season, it was good with Agatha and Celia but bad with Darby and Alex, I prefer to use the Euro to forecast cyclogenesis.

[cycloneye]

00z BAMMS

1 KWBC 050047
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0047 UTC MON JUL 5 2010

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL962010) 20100705 0000 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
100705 0000 100705 1200 100706 0000 100706 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 16.9N 82.9W 19.0N 84.9W 21.1N 86.6W 23.1N 88.3W
BAMD 16.9N 82.9W 18.1N 84.2W 19.1N 85.5W 20.1N 86.5W
BAMM 16.9N 82.9W 18.3N 84.3W 19.7N 85.8W 21.1N 87.1W
LBAR 16.9N 82.9W 17.8N 84.0W 18.9N 85.5W 19.9N 87.1W
SHIP 30KTS 36KTS 43KTS 47KTS
DSHP 30KTS 36KTS 43KTS 40KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
100707 0000 100708 0000 100709 0000 100710 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 24.8N 89.8W 27.2N 93.1W 28.3N 96.5W 28.7N 99.8W
BAMD 20.8N 87.7W 21.3N 90.4W 21.3N 94.2W 21.4N 98.5W
BAMM 22.3N 88.4W 24.0N 91.7W 25.2N 95.8W 25.9N 99.8W
LBAR 21.2N 88.9W 24.1N 92.7W 27.0N 96.1W 29.3N 98.0W
SHIP 51KTS 58KTS 66KTS 69KTS
DSHP 45KTS 52KTS 61KTS 35KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 16.9N LONCUR = 82.9W DIRCUR = 315DEG SPDCUR = 6KT
LATM12 = 16.0N LONM12 = 82.2W DIRM12 = 306DEG SPDM12 = 6KT
LATM24 = 15.4N LONM24 = 80.8W
WNDCUR = 30KT RMAXWD = 75NM WNDM12 = 30KT
CENPRS = 1009MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD = 120NM SDEPTH = S
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

[Nederlander]

A lot of what 96L does is going to be dictated by little ol' 95L.. if 96L develops in a hurry and doesnt stall out like Alex did, then this will most likely be a CONUS storm (TX probably..) ... a lot depends on what effect 95L has on the ridge and the timing as 96L approaches.. and remember, the stronger a storm is, the more its going to react to a weakness..

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[wxman22]

18z NAM takes it into the middle Texas Coast FWIW

[KWT]

IMO The GFS has not been very good forecasting the development of some cyclones this season, it was good with Agatha and Celia but bad with Darby and Alex, I prefer to use the Euro to forecast cyclogenesis.

The newer version of the GFS did ok with Alex, and it was quicker to spot the trend of it heading towards N.Mexico then the other east models.

Until we get an actual center though all these predictions aren't really going to be much use to us....interestingly the SHIPS aren't that agressive with this system with the different BAM's spread out.

[Ivanhater]

[Nederlander]

I never see it mentioned on the forums, so I am assuming its a crap model, but could someone explain the CLIPER5 model.. does it account for climatology or something?

[JonathanBelles]

I never see it mentioned on the forums, so I am assuming its a crap model, but could someone explain the CLIPER5 model.. does it account for climatology or something?

It's completely based on climatology and persistance.

[KWT]

Those models suggest Texas, then again those same models pointed to Texas with Alex as well...much is going to depend on where any center forms, because obviously a little to the NE and a similar track to Alex would bring it close if not into Texas...

[Ivanhater]

Those models suggest Texas, then again those same models pointed to Texas with Alex as well...much is going to depend on where any center forms, because obviously a little to the NE and a similar track to Alex would bring it close if not into Texas...

Agree, but unlike with Alex the steering flow for the next couple of days is NNW not west across the Yucatan

[LaBreeze]

Models flip-flopping. They'll do this for days - too early to tell.

[KWT]

Those models suggest Texas, then again those same models pointed to Texas with Alex as well...much is going to depend on where any center forms, because obviously a little to the NE and a similar track to Alex would bring it close if not into Texas...

Agree, but unlike with Alex the steering flow for the next couple of days is NNW not west across the Yucatan

Whats really interestin is the ECM really does strengthen that upper high between 48-72hrs and shifts the ridge to the west, thats probably why it ends up where it does on the ECM. Therefore probably the forward speed will play a big role here as well, the longer it takes the further south it'll be when that upper high likely does build back.