ATL: INVEST 95L - DISCUSSION

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wxman57
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - DISCUSSION

#341 Postby wxman57 » Sun Jul 04, 2010 6:33 pm

I think 95L is too small to be significant as far as influencing 96L.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - DISCUSSION

#342 Postby Ikester » Sun Jul 04, 2010 6:34 pm

I wonder what the NHC will do in the next 25 min. or so...
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#343 Postby Stormcenter » Sun Jul 04, 2010 6:39 pm

ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT SUN JUL 4 2010


Up to 20% chance for development per NHC.


FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

1. A SMALL BUT WELL ORGANIZED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS LOCATED ABOUT 125
MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTRAL LOUISIANA COAST. THIS LOW IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTHWARD AT 5 TO 10 MPH OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS OR
SO...THEN TURN NORTHWESTWARD AFTER THAT. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS
ARE ONLY MARGINALLY CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT...AND THERE IS A LOW
CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
BEFORE IT MOVES INLAND BY MONDAY EVENING.
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#344 Postby chzzdekr81 » Sun Jul 04, 2010 6:39 pm

NHC updated. Both invests' chances have increased since 2.
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Re:

#345 Postby Ptarmigan » Sun Jul 04, 2010 7:02 pm

chzzdekr81 wrote:NHC updated. Both invests' chances have increased since 2.


Two new areas to watch. 96L is now Code Orange. The tropics are heating up. Never seen so many areas to bear watch, let alone in July. Looks more like August or September.

Image
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#346 Postby HURAKAN » Sun Jul 04, 2010 7:10 pm

If 95L is able to burst tonight, then we have a tropical cyclone tomorrow.
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Re:

#347 Postby Ptarmigan » Sun Jul 04, 2010 7:13 pm

HURAKAN wrote:If 95L is able to burst tonight, then we have a tropical cyclone tomorrow.


That would be real firework show. :wink: :eek:
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#348 Postby Cookie » Sun Jul 04, 2010 7:14 pm

Wow at the number of area's under watch at the moment.
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Re:

#349 Postby Dean4Storms » Sun Jul 04, 2010 7:15 pm

HURAKAN wrote:If 95L is able to burst tonight, then we have a tropical cyclone tomorrow.


I would agree, if it's convection grows and deepens tonight I see nothing keeping it from making TC status, the shear has dropped and the dry air would be a moot point if the convection grows and deepens.
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#350 Postby KWT » Sun Jul 04, 2010 7:18 pm

Yeah though it doesn't look as good as it did about 6hrs when it really did look like it was developing into a TD right in front of our eyes.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - DISCUSSION

#351 Postby Over my head » Sun Jul 04, 2010 7:22 pm

Sanibel wrote:I can't believe this little pip-squeak of a disturbance is going to develop. What kind of crazy year is this? It could end up being a tiny cyclone.


:lol:
TS Eduoard did this in Aug of 08, too. I think he was a home grown storm.
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#352 Postby HURAKAN » Sun Jul 04, 2010 7:22 pm

04/2345 UTC 27.7N 89.8W TOO WEAK 95L
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#353 Postby KWT » Sun Jul 04, 2010 7:49 pm

I think that confirms the weakening that has once again occured with 95L Hurakan, ah well it showed promise at one point.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - DISCUSSION

#354 Postby cycloneye » Sun Jul 04, 2010 7:58 pm

00z Best Track

Moving north.

AL, 95, 2010070500, , BEST, 0, 275N, 901W, 25, 1011, LO

ftp://ftp.tpc.ncep.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/ ... 010.invest
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - DISCUSSION

#355 Postby LaBreeze » Sun Jul 04, 2010 8:13 pm

"Poof" gone by morning - what do you all think?
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#356 Postby Yankeegirl » Sun Jul 04, 2010 8:17 pm

I agree, I also think its going to go Poof.....
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#357 Postby Dean4Storms » Sun Jul 04, 2010 8:23 pm

You saying we might have to put out a POOF ALERT???
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Re:

#358 Postby lester » Sun Jul 04, 2010 8:26 pm

Dean4Storms wrote:You saying we might have to put out a POOF ALERT???


"A poof watch is in effect until 800 AM CDT for 95L. A poof watch means that a invest may poof in 12 hours time" :P
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Re: Re:

#359 Postby Tireman4 » Sun Jul 04, 2010 8:31 pm

lester88 wrote:
Dean4Storms wrote:You saying we might have to put out a POOF ALERT???


"A poof watch is in effect until 800 AM CDT for 95L. A poof watch means that a invest may poof in 12 hours time" :P



Very cool
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#360 Postby CrazyC83 » Sun Jul 04, 2010 8:43 pm

Tonight is critical for this. If it can sustain convection overnight, then I think it is a TD or TS.
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