ATL: TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO - DISCUSSION

[brunota2003]

I think the buoy is malfunctioning...I don't really see anything (on the IR) except some yellows and oranges...and there is a Ship report from about 110 miles away with 29.91, or 1013 millibars (buoy is reading 29.71, or 1006 millibars)...with that difference and the ship is only reporting 6 knot winds, with the buoy reporting 3.9 knots? ERROR ERROR ERROR

Now I'm waiting for someone to come along, say I'm completely wrong and go "NO ERROR"

[HouTXmetro]

MLC is fading, could a LLC be forming under the deep convection to the South East.

[MGC]

Check out the WV loop....96L is located directly under an upper ridge. Once it closes off it should spin up quickly unless it is close to land......MGC

OOPS! Double Post....sorry.

[Dean4Storms]

Check out the WV loop....96L is located directly under an upper ridge. Once it closes off it should spin up quickly unless it is close to land......MGC

OOPS! Double Post....sorry.

I agree, it is in a better environment than Alex was in this location, no dry air and no shear really to speak of. All it needs is some sustained deep convection near or over the low and it could really take off. Looks like it could also be just a tad smaller than Alex but a large system.

[rockyman]

that buoy pressure dropped a little more this past hour

[ROCK]

that is some cold tops to the SE thats where I would look for it to tap the surface....over the hottest part of the basin....not liking this one...

[redfish1]

is it a possible upper texas or sw louisiana storm??

[lebron23]

is it a possible upper texas or sw louisiana storm??

Obviously. It's possible mexico to the panhandle of florida..

[Jagno]

Plans? What's that? I have my youngest graduating in Florida next Friday and I'm in SW Louisiana with both 95L and now possibly 96L getting between us.

[Ikester]

I'd be far more worried about 96L.

[redfish1]

does anyone have any thoughts on when they will classify this a depression?

[Air Force Met]

I think the buoy is malfunctioning...I don't really see anything (on the IR) except some yellows and oranges...and there is a Ship report from about 110 miles away with 29.91, or 1013 millibars (buoy is reading 29.71, or 1006 millibars)...with that difference and the ship is only reporting 6 knot winds, with the buoy reporting 3.9 knots? ERROR ERROR ERROR

Now I'm waiting for someone to come along, say I'm completely wrong and go "NO ERROR"

I accidentally posted this buoy data on the models thread...so I was glad to see you all talking about it. I think its a malfunction too...but its weird because it was working fine...and now its a constant drop. I think it is a malfunction because the last visible images didn't show any circulation in that area...and with a low of 1005mb...in that environment...there would certainly have to be...

[Sanibel]

Next burst should be over the center. It could be struggling slightly from being so close to Alex's wake. I think the upper High on both systems probably prompted them.

[rockyman]

[Sanibel]

Such a well-formed circulation should be almost a "gimme"...

[Ivanhater]

[Cyclone1]

I admit I've lost my eye for storms over this past year, but that looks very depressionish to the recently untrained eye.

Also, hello, again. Been lurking since before Alex, so... figured I'd log back in.

[bahamaswx]

Quite a pressure drop

Then Best track is off by at least 3mb!!

That buoy is located at 19.874 N 85.059 W...so either the buoy's malfunctioning, or a center is forming much farther to the north.

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=42056

and now the pressure has stopped dropping...

bizzare.

[HouTXmetro]

I'm in shock at that quick scat. That can't be accurate...if so we have a TD right?

[HURAKAN]

I'm in shock at that quick scat. That can't be accurate...if so we have a TD right?

It's not "real"

Multi-Platform Tropical Cyclone Surface Wind Analysis

Currently, this product combines information from five data sources to create a mid-level (near 700 hPa) wind analysis using a variational approach described in Knaff and DeMaria (2006). The resulting mid-level winds are then adjusted to the surface applying a very simple single column approach. Over the ocean an adjustment factor is applied, which is a function of radius from the center ranging from 0.9 to 0.7, and the winds are turned 20 degrees toward low pressure. Over land, the oceanic winds are reduced by an additional 20% and turned an additional 20 degrees toward low pressure.

The five datasets currently used are the ASCAT scatterometer, which is adjusted upward to 700 hPa in the same manner as the surface winds are adjusted downward, feature track winds in the mid-levels from the operational satellite centers, 2-d flight-level winds estimated from infrared imagery (see Mueller et al 2006 ) and 2-d winds created from Advanced Microwave Sounding Unit (AMSU)- derived height fields and solving the non-linear balance equations as described in Bessho et al (2006). Past analyses also made use of the QuickSCAT scatterometer (i.e., prior to November 2009), but this satellite is no longer producing observations of surface vector winds.

Each of the input data are shown in subpanels following the analysis (i.e., storm-relative). Shown are AMSU winds, Cloud-drift/IR/WV winds, IR-proxy winds and Scatterometer winds; QuikSCAT, when available for past analyses (BLUE) and ASCAT (RED). All input data in these panels has been reduced to a 10-m land or oceanic exposure depending on the location (i.e., non-surface data has been reduced to a 10-m exposure).

How good are the wind estimates? Here is the verification based upon 2007 data . These statistics were based on 1) H*Wind data when available and 2) best track wind radii estimates from NHC. In interpreting the wind radii verification it is important to not that the zero wind radii are included in the verification, which both skews and inflates the MAE verification statistics. Note however detection is improved over climatology provided by Knaff et al. (2007).