ATL: TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO - DISCUSSION

[blp]

Pressure coming back up.



The closest ship to the buoy last reported at 00UTC right before the big drop.

Don Carlos

Last reported at 2010-Jul-05 00:00 UTC.
Position N 19°06', W 083°18'.

Wind from 190 at 6 knots

Waves 0.5 meters (2 feet), 2 second period

Barometer 1012.7 mb
Air temperature 25.8 ° C
Visibility: greater than 1.1 NM
Water temperature 29.9 ° C

So far no other observations around the area to confirm if it was a fluke. Also around the time of the drop we did not have any heavy thunderstorms on the IR.

[brunota2003]

Yep...pointed that out earlier...but if that pressure were real (a pressure of 1006 mb), and a ship 100 miles away had a pressure of 1013...wouldn't the winds be higher than up to 6 knots at most?

[blp]

I agree.. I see nothing at this time that can explain that kind of a drop. The buoy looked like it had been working fine that past three days so it is interesting that it would suddenly fail. We should be getting another reading from that ship again in the next 30 minutes I am curious what it will report.

Yep...pointed that out earlier...but if that pressure were real (a pressure of 1006 mb), and a ship 100 miles away had a pressure of 1013...wouldn't the winds be higher than up to 6 knots at most?

[HURAKAN]

850
ABNT20 KNHC 050539
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT MON JUL 5 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DIMINISHED IN ASSOCIATION WITH A
SMALL AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 100 MILES SOUTH OF MORGAN
CITY LOUISIANA. THIS LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTHWARD OR
NORTHWESTWARD AT 5 TO 10 MPH OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE NOT FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT...AND
THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE BEFORE IT MOVES INLAND BY TONIGHT OR TUESDAY.

THE TROPICAL DISTURBANCE LOCATED OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA
HAS CHANGED LITTLE OVER THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS...AND THERE ARE NO
SIGNS OF A SURFACE CIRCULATION. HOWEVER...ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS
ARE FAVORABLE FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT...AND A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION COULD FORM OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS THIS SYSTEM
MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OR NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH. THERE
IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...50 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. REGARDLESS OF
DEVELOPMENT...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE
OVER THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND THE
NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

SHOWER ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH LOCATED
NORTHEAST OF THE BAHAMAS HAS DIMINISHED OVER THE PAST FEW
HOURS...AND UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE NOT CURRENTLY FAVORABLE FOR
DEVELOPMENT. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. THIS SYSTEM
IS EXPECTED TO MOVE LITTLE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE LESSER ANTILLES IS
ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE INTERACTING WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH. WHILE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE NOT CURRENTLY CONDUCIVE FOR
DEVELOPMENT...THEY MAY BECOME FAVORABLE FOR SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT
OF THIS SYSTEM AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 15 MPH OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...
OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS
ARE POSSIBLE IN THE LEEWARD AND NORTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS...THE
VIRGIN ISLANDS...AND PUERTO RICO DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN

[brunota2003]

That is the life of weather equipment though...it's working fineeeee and suddenly BOOM! Failure. Hopefully the sensor will straighten itself out, and they won't have to put a work order in!

[TheEuropean]

05/0545 UTC 16.9N 83.4W T1.0/1.0 96L -- Atlantic

[latitude_20]

96L definitely getting that look.

[KWT]

Looks to me like 96L has somewhat gone down the pan overnight with the convection really fading away with 96L and being reduced to just little pockets of convection. Not going to get any stronger if it doesn't pep up, quite interesting its decayed near D-max!

[ConvergenceZone]

I agree KWT, before I went to bed last night 96 looked promising as did the area east of the islands. Now both of those areas have almost went poof!....Not much activity anymore.

[KWT]

I still think it develops, its still got good mid level turning and once the convectio fires up again with this system things should start to get going again...I'm just not convinced this will be too potent down the line, certainly not as strong as Alex IMO.

[cycloneye]

Because of what is going on with the lack of convection, I dont think recon will go today.

[HURAKAN]

Latest

[cycloneye]

Wow,what a difference a day makes as this litterally imploded.That is why I like tropical weather so much because many intangibles occur instantly one way or another. For example,one day, you can see four circles on the TWO graphic, but on the next day there are none.

[HURAKAN]

96L look is rather perplexing. It has good convergence, divergence, moist environment, low shear, strong vorticity, etc, but it's not bursting. Interesting.

[tailgater]

Does anyone have a looping radar of Cancun site? Should be able to see if it is coming together or not.

[tolakram]

I like to follow MIMIC-TPW, and it appears to put the spin near the Gulf.



Uploaded with ImageShack.us

Somewhere near this convection I assume.

Loop: http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/ge ... umframes=5

[cycloneye]

ABNT20 KNHC 051154
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT MON JUL 5 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN DISORGANIZED IN ASSOCIATION WITH A
SMALL AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 60 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE NOT FAVORABLE
FOR DEVELOPMENT...AND THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF THIS
SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE BEFORE IT MOVES INLAND BY
TONIGHT OR TUESDAY. THIS LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTHWARD OR
NORTHWESTWARD AT 5 TO 10 MPH OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO.

THE TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA HAS BECOME
LESS ORGANIZED OVERNIGHT AND THE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT SCHEDULED
FOR THIS AFTERNOON HAS BEEN CANCELED. HOWEVER...ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS ARE CONDUCIVE FOR SOME DEVELOPMENT...AND A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION COULD STILL FORM OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS THIS
SYSTEM MOVES NORTHWESTWARD AT 15 MPH. THERE IS A MEDIUM
CHANCE...40 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE CAYMAN
ISLANDS...THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...WESTERN CUBA AND THE NORTHWESTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.

A TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE FAR EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA IS PRODUCING AN
AREA OF DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE LESSER
ANTILLES AND ADJACENT WATERS. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE NOT FAVORABLE
FOR SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM AS IT MOVES
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 15 MPH OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. REGARDLESS OF
DEVELOPMENT...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE
IN THE LESSER ANTILLES AND PUERTO RICO DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE

[KWT]

No doubt now the system will burst into life now the recon has been cancelled. There is a developing burst probably to the south but clearly something has changed aloft and has really sapped the system of convection, not sure exactly what it is.

Even with this setback I'd be pretty sure it develops but not likwly now on this side of the Caribbean...

[Hurricane Andrew]

Does anyone have a shear map?

[KWT]

96L look is rather perplexing. It has good convergence, divergence, moist environment, low shear, strong vorticity, etc, but it's not bursting. Interesting.

Its interesting to see its weakening during Dmax, wonder if this is one of those odd systems that burst during Dmin and then weaken during Dmax, we'll find out later on it seems...