ATL: TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO - DISCUSSION

[kjg123]

Is JB on vacation?? We have heard very little from him on the system.

[BigA]

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I still get the "middling tropical storm affecting upper Texas coast" vibe with this system. I think that if conditions get reasonably favorable in the GOM, we'll see a decent low develop, but I agree with those who say that this thing doesn't have a lot of time.

[Sanibel]

If GOM is favorable I think there's enough there to spur formation. I see something trying to develop.

[bahamaswx]

Looked better 2 days ago.

[xironman]

Yucatan Basin buoy http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=42056 went SW for a while, now back to S.

[southerngale]

Is JB on vacation?? We have heard very little from him on the system.

Yes, he's on the road. In a very brief update this morning, he said the MLC is behind the LLC and it wasn't a favorable scenario for rapid development, but that Texas should still keep an eye on it.

[HURAKAN]

Remains a mess

[cperez1594]

From Brownsville AFD Afternoon

.LONG TERM /7AM WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...BROAD 500MB LOW ACROSS
NORTHEAST MEXICO WEDNESDAY SHOULD PROVIDE A WEAKNESS IN THE 500MB
RIDGE ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS AND THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. IN
ADDITION...A TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE NORTHWEST CARIBBEAN SEA AND
THE SOUTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO WILL MOVE WESTWARD THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS INTO THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. ABUNDANT TROPICAL MOISTURE
WILL APPROACH THE LOWER TX COAST WEDNESDAY AS A RESULT PROVIDING A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FOR DEEP SOUTH TX AND
RAIN CHANCES SHOULD CONTINUE TO INCREASE THE REST OF THE WEEK AS
BOTH THE 12Z GFS AND ECMWF MODEL RUNS BRING DEEP MOISTURE INTO
SOUTH TX TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK AS THE INVERTED 700MB TROUGH
ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE MOVES INTO THE COASTAL SECTION
OF TX THURSDAY. THE TIMING AND AMOUNT OF RAINFALL WILL BE HIGHLY
DEPENDENT ON THE FUTURE TRACK AND DEVELOPMENT OF THE TROPICAL WAVE.
&&

[mattpetre]

Will delay in development (reformation to the southwest of the original LLC) mean that the conditions in the GOM will be more favorable by the time this gets there? I don't see how anything could come of the original circulation.

[RachelAnna]

Even if this doesn't really develop into a TD or TS or more, this will still be a rain maker when it makes its way to land, correct? Or, do you think it'll fall apart altogether? Thoughts?

[wxman57]

Will delay in development (reformation to the southwest of the original LLC) mean that the conditions in the GOM will be more favorable by the time this gets there? I don't see how anything could come of the original circulation.

There isn't now, nor has there ever been an LLC with this disturbance. There are strong SSE-S winds blowing across the western Caribbean through the Yucatan Channel (25-35kts). No turning at all evident in the wind flow. Greatest convergence will be near the leading edge of this band of high winds, not in the middle of it or behind it. So any development will occur on the northern side of the convection which is already in the southern Gulf. Development chances don't appear to be that high, given the now limited time it'll remain offshore (48-60 hrs) and the current lack of organization.

[mattpetre]

My bad on the LLC assumption (just thought I saw the ghost of one dissappearing on visible.) Well all sounds like good news for very limited development then. I hope that is the way things pan out.

[xcool22]

wxman57 .guess no hope for 96L

[Sanibel]

I think there's rotation in there. However it could be synoptically pinched by the GOM environment it is pushing into. We'll see if it bursts again.

[rockyman]

Vorticity is really increasing over the southeastern Gulf:

6 hours ago:


Now:

[ROCK]

plenty of spin with this...the convection is just not there attm....still in the carib..

[Cainer]

Looks like 93L part deux, looks poised to develop one night then falls apart in seemingly decent conditions. Then again, once 93L got started, there wasn't much to stop it! If more convection starts to develop around the vorticity max in the Gulf, I think this has a decent shot to develop, all depends on how quickly it can get its act together.

[djones65]

Rock is exactly right... The action is now in the southeast Gulf of Mexico... Guys, if you look over the SE Gulf of Mexico you can see some definite low level rotation, and a broad surface circulation is developing just north of the Yucatan channel. Surface pressures are dropping. The upper level anticyclone is lagging to the south, but overall it seems to be gaining organization. I have noticed the low level circulation become more organized throughout the day as the low pressure area becomes more apparent near 22.5N and 87W. Winds are becoming northerly over the Yucatan Peninsula. Also there have been several ship reports of 30 to 40 knot SSE and SE winds to the northeast of where this low pressure center is forming. Look for obs within 200 miles of 22N 87W at the ndbc homepage and you will see them. They look reliable as one ship without any call letters has been sending hourly reports and the winds and pressure has steadily increased and decreased respectively near 24N and 86W. This is a large circulation in my opinion, and I think the upper level anticyclone is favorable for further deepening. Surface pressure is at least 1007 mb based on the ship reports I have seen which includes a 1008 mb pressure with 34 knot winds near 24 and 86. This still looks like a good candidate for tropical cyclone formation tomorrow when the recon gets there and the upper level ridge builds northward. I would expect NHC to up the percentages once again, maybe to likely, in the next TWO at 7 p.m. CDT. As always when watching the tropics... I need LOTS of patience...

[cycloneye]

ATCF made an update on the Best Track for 96L,Pressure down,winds up and new position.

AL, 96, 2010070518, , BEST, 0, 190N, 856W, 30, 1007, DB

ftp://ftp.tpc.ncep.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/ ... 010.invest

[xironman]

Almost looks like a circulation but Cozumel seems to say no.