ATL: INVEST 95L - DISCUSSION

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Re: Re:

#481 Postby mattpetre » Mon Jul 05, 2010 5:41 pm

HURAKAN wrote:
djones65 wrote:Actually if they had intended to upgrade it then there would have been no need for the STWO, they would have simply upgraded it. Since they do not intend to upgrade the necessity of the STWO is to alert residents that tropical storm conditions are possible this evening as it is moving inland. At least that's how I interpret it...


That sounds more like the job of the NWS.


The NWS's job is to interpret how and why the NWS puts out statements?

Looks to me that it really doesn't matter how this system is classified, it's basically no worse than a typical front of storms dropping through the midwest.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - DISCUSSION

#482 Postby Stormcenter » Mon Jul 05, 2010 5:42 pm

Agree 100%



Steve wrote:>>I couldn't find any obs showing a closed off circulation at the surface from the buoy data, let alone a well defined one. And earlier, that station was reporting a 15 knot wind...the winds on the NW/W side of the low are light and variable at best.

It's pretty obvious that the low was closed off (per blatant visible), but the circulation is extremely small. You see inflow all around and into the center, and that's not upper or mid level stuff there. We may need a ship ob from the time period to close it off, but the entire circulation may well be between buoys and observation stations. I agree that it wasn't probably a tropical storm, but I'm about 95% sure it was a depression coming in.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - DISCUSSION

#483 Postby brunota2003 » Mon Jul 05, 2010 5:42 pm

Steve wrote:>>I couldn't find any obs showing a closed off circulation at the surface from the buoy data, let alone a well defined one. And earlier, that station was reporting a 15 knot wind...the winds on the NW/W side of the low are light and variable at best.

It's pretty obvious that the low was closed off (per blatant visible), but the circulation is extremely small. You see inflow all around and into the center, and that's not upper or mid level stuff there. We may need a ship ob from the time period to close it off, but the entire circulation may well be between buoys and observation stations. I agree that it wasn't probably a tropical storm, but I'm about 95% sure it was a depression coming in.

We'll see...it should pass just to the east of the one obs point, and we'll see what the winds do, if it has a closed llc or not.
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Re: Re:

#484 Postby HURAKAN » Mon Jul 05, 2010 5:43 pm

mattpetre wrote:
HURAKAN wrote:
djones65 wrote:Actually if they had intended to upgrade it then there would have been no need for the STWO, they would have simply upgraded it. Since they do not intend to upgrade the necessity of the STWO is to alert residents that tropical storm conditions are possible this evening as it is moving inland. At least that's how I interpret it...


That sounds more like the job of the NWS.


The NWS's job is to interpret how and why the NWS puts out statements?

Looks to me that it really doesn't matter how this system is classified, it's basically no worse than a typical front of storms dropping through the midwest.


To say that a low pressure is making landfall and could produce thunderstorms and showers you don't need the NHC. Your local weather office can do that.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - DISCUSSION

#485 Postby ozonepete » Mon Jul 05, 2010 5:44 pm

Steve wrote:>>I couldn't find any obs showing a closed off circulation at the surface from the buoy data, let alone a well defined one. And earlier, that station was reporting a 15 knot wind...the winds on the NW/W side of the low are light and variable at best.

It's pretty obvious that the low was closed off (per blatant visible), but the circulation is extremely small. You see inflow all around and into the center, and that's not upper or mid level stuff there. We may need a ship ob from the time period to close it off, but the entire circulation may well be between buoys and observation stations. I agree that it wasn't probably a tropical storm, but I'm about 95% sure it was a depression coming in.


Exactly. And it still has time to reach TS status if it hugs the coast for a while. I still say that's why they changed it to code red.
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#486 Postby HURAKAN » Mon Jul 05, 2010 5:46 pm

Image
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#487 Postby CrazyC83 » Mon Jul 05, 2010 5:48 pm

Based on radar, the center would be at 29.15N, 91.21W - about 4 miles offshore and 37 miles south of Morgan City. A new convective band is helping find it.
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Re: Re:

#488 Postby mattpetre » Mon Jul 05, 2010 5:48 pm

HURAKAN wrote:
mattpetre wrote:
HURAKAN wrote:That sounds more like the job of the NWS.


The NWS's job is to interpret how and why the NWS puts out statements?

Looks to me that it really doesn't matter how this system is classified, it's basically no worse than a typical front of storms dropping through the midwest.


To say that a low pressure is making landfall and could produce thunderstorms and showers you don't need the NHC. Your local weather office can do that.


Got it. I totally misinterpreted that one. My bad.
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Re:

#489 Postby ozonepete » Mon Jul 05, 2010 5:51 pm

HURAKAN wrote:Image


yes, Hurakan. That's clearly the message we're getting. It doesn't surprise me that in a case like this the NHC isn't sure what to do. As much as they have learned, and as good as they are, they will occassionally run into brain-twisters like this. It's the kind of forecasting challenge that got me so into meteorology.
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#490 Postby bahamaswx » Mon Jul 05, 2010 6:01 pm

I've seen many high-latitude systems classified with convection no deeper than this one. Not really sure I buy that argument against it.
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#491 Postby HURAKAN » Mon Jul 05, 2010 6:04 pm

Image

Latest
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Re:

#492 Postby brunota2003 » Mon Jul 05, 2010 6:04 pm

bahamaswx wrote:I've seen many high-latitude systems classified with convection no deeper than this one. Not really sure I buy that argument against it.

But it isn't a high latitude system over 24 degree SSTs...that's the thing! This system is over SSTs of at least 28C, so the convection should be a LOT deeper than a few yellows.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - DISCUSSION

#493 Postby tolakram » Mon Jul 05, 2010 6:04 pm

Wow, was not paying attention today!

Loop: http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/ge ... mframes=15

What in the world is that little dude doing? Very surprising.
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Re:

#494 Postby KWT » Mon Jul 05, 2010 6:05 pm

bahamaswx wrote:I've seen many high-latitude systems classified with convection no deeper than this one. Not really sure I buy that argument against it.


True but as has been said the temperatures below it are quite a lot higher.

That being said the Vis.imagery does look like a small TD again it has to be said but as we saw yesterday such presentations can go down hill very rapidly...plus this one is pretty much onshore now.
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Re: Re:

#495 Postby ozonepete » Mon Jul 05, 2010 6:09 pm

KWT wrote:
bahamaswx wrote:I've seen many high-latitude systems classified with convection no deeper than this one. Not really sure I buy that argument against it.


True but as has been said the temperatures below it are quite a lot higher.

That being said the Vis.imagery does look like a small TD again it has to be said but as we saw yesterday such presentations can go down hill very rapidly...plus this one is pretty much onshore now.


Excellent point, KWT. That is exactly why. And the night is coming. It's quite likely this will fire up, and we'll see how the winds respond. I'm not saying I expect this to clear the TS threshold, just that it still has a chance if it hugs the coast, i.e. you can't rule it out yet.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - DISCUSSION

#496 Postby redfish1 » Mon Jul 05, 2010 6:11 pm

which way is it moving right now?
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Re:

#497 Postby ozonepete » Mon Jul 05, 2010 6:12 pm

bahamaswx wrote:I've seen many high-latitude systems classified with convection no deeper than this one. Not really sure I buy that argument against it.


I was gonna say that too. :D
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - DISCUSSION

#498 Postby ozonepete » Mon Jul 05, 2010 6:12 pm

redfish1 wrote:which way is it moving right now?


Looks northwest to west-northwest. Hugging the coastline.
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#499 Postby HURAKAN » Mon Jul 05, 2010 6:14 pm

Lets see what they say in the 8 pm TWO.

I'm guessing they will lower the chances of development.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - DISCUSSION

#500 Postby redfish1 » Mon Jul 05, 2010 6:15 pm

ozonepete wrote:
redfish1 wrote:which way is it moving right now?


Looks northwest to west-northwest. Hugging the coastline.


if thats the case we may get some of this in southeast texas....am i right or wrong?
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