ATL: TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO - DISCUSSION

[KatDaddy]

Center is bursting with heavy convection. We shall see what the added energy gives to Invest 96L.

[antonlsu]

could get interesting

[HURAKAN]

906
ABNT20 KNHC 052358
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT MON JUL 5 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A SMALL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM HAS MOVED INLAND OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL
LOUISIANA ABOUT 25 MILES SOUTHEAST OF MORGAN CITY. NOW THAT THE
SYSTEM IS OVER LAND AND WILL MOVE FARTHER INLAND TONIGHT...TROPICAL
CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT IS NO LONGER EXPECTED. THERE IS A LOW
CHANCE...NEAR 0 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. HOWEVER...HEAVY RAINFALL
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW IS POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA. INTERESTS SHOULD MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY
THEIR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER FORECAST OFFICE FOR ADDITIONAL UPDATES
AND ANY WATCHES OR WARNINGS.

A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA AND
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA CONTINUES TO PRODUCE WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS AND
DISORGANIZED THUNDERSTORMS. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE FORECAST TO
BECOME MORE CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT...AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION
COULD STILL FORM OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES
NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30
PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
AND GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND WESTERN
CUBA OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART/CANGIALOSI

[HouTXmetro]

Well the NHC keeps dropping development, but 93L was dropped at one point from 50% to way less so I don't know.

[KWT]

Wel they've held it at 30% this time but I'd have thought if the current set-up and presentation its displaying carries on for the next 6-12hrs you've gotta think the risk will be upped from its current 30%...but for now I think the 30% makes sense and its roughly what I'd put it at as well.

[ROCK]

I am not liking this whole percentage thing from the NHC....back and forth...look what it did with 95L......

[HouTXmetro]

didn't they go from 60% to zero?

[ozonepete]

didn't they go from 60% to zero?

yes. 0 to 60 to 0 today.

[crownweather]

didn't they go from 60% to zero?

Yep, in the span of three hours!!

[xcool22]

up & down nhc

[Dean4Storms]

I think they have 96L too low % wise. It should be remaining near 50% when you consider they are talking over a period of 48hrs. I would think it has had a 50/50 shot at development since yesterday, all it has lacked is deep convection near the low and that can go from little to much in a span of 3 hours in the deep tropics.

[wx247]

I, for one, happen to like the new percentages from the NHC that they are using. I think that they give us a better idea of what the NHC is thinking... even if that doesn't pan out so well. I do think what has to happen a little better with it is more consistency with between outlooks... which is difficult when different people are issuing the outlooks each time.

[KWT]

I think they have 96L too low % wise. It should be remaining near 50% when you consider they are talking over a period of 48hrs. I would think it has had a 50/50 shot at development since yesterday, all it has lacked is deep convection near the low and that can go from little to much in a span of 3 hours in the deep tropics.

I'd probably raise it if the convection were to remain in place but I think for now we've only just developed deep convection again over any possible developing center and MLC. That being said obviously once these things get embedded then they usually only take one overnight burst to get on thier way.

[hurricaneCW]

The convection probably going to die down again and than start up again tomorrow. Convection is already starting to die out.

[ROCK]

The convection probably going to die down again and than start up again tomorrow. Convection is already starting to die out.

maybe so but I see that burst up near the tip of the Yucatan...thats what I am looking for..consolidation....

[cycloneye]

00z Best Track

AL, 96, 2010070600, , BEST, 0, 196N, 861W, 30, 1007, DB

ftp://ftp.tpc.ncep.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/ ... 010.invest

[SootyTern]

yes. 0 to 60 to 0 today.

Yep, in the span of three hours!!

sounds like my last car

[redfish1]

do you all think we will have something to watch tonight??

[Ivanhater]

[Nederlander]

do you all think we will have something to watch tonight??

i wouldnt bank on it.. its a mess.. lots of convection but no real structure to it.. vorticity is kind of widespread (refer to Ivanhater's map)