ATL: TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO - DISCUSSION

[HouTXmetro]

And we wait for a big convective burst. I think i see an LLC trying to form near cozumel.

[bahamaswx]

Buoy 42056 is quite close to the convection ball. Pressure has been rising some and the winds are up. Nothing definite yet as to the LLC.

The same buoy we all concluded was broken yesterday. Still don't know what to make of that big pressure drop; must've been some paranormal activity.

[HURAKAN]

Doesn't make sense to expect development in the NW Caribbean in the next 24-48 hours. If it happens, it should be in the Gulf.



TPC points to central Texas

[Sanibel]

The Cancun convection shows some persistence.

[chzzdekr81]

Who here thinks the percentage is going to rise next update?

[HURAKAN]

Latest

[HURAKAN]

Vorticity continues to deepen

[HURAKAN]

555
ABNT20 KNHC 060531
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT TUE JUL 6 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A SMALL LOW PRESSURE AREA LOCATED NEAR THE SOUTH-CENTRAL LOUISIANA
COAST IS PRODUCING A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS IT MOVES
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH. DEVELOPMENT OF THIS LOW IS NOT
EXPECTED DUE TO THE INTERACTION WITH LAND AND THERE IS A LOW
CHANCE...NEAR 0 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS
POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN LOUISIANA TODAY.

A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA CONTINUES TO PRODUCE WIDESPREAD BUT DISORGANIZED
CLOUDINESS...SHOWERS...AND THUNDERSTORMS. A TROPICAL DEPRESSION
COULD STILL FORM OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES
NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30
PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
AND GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA
DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

[HURAKAN]

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT TUE JUL 06 2010

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

A TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM THE SE GULF NEAR 26N87W ALONG THE E
COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND THROUGH THE GULF OF HONDURAS
TO INLAND OVER W HONDURAS NEAR 15N87W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED
MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 18N-22N BETWEEN 82W-91W IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THE WAVE WHILE A MUCH LARGER AREA OF SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS COVERS THE SE GULF S OF 26N
BETWEEN 82W-87W AND W CARIBBEAN W OF 80W TO OVER CUBA AND
CENTRAL AMERICA. ALTHOUGH THERE IS NO DISCERNIBLE SURFACE LOW A
MID LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS OBSERVED ALONG THE WAVE AXIS
NEAR 19W. A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD STILL FORM OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES NW AT 9 TO 13 KT. THERE IS A
MEDIUM CHANCE OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING
THE NEXT 48 HOURS. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO.

[TwisterFanatic]

Looks like convection firing again to the east.

[antonlsu]

Looks like she keeps firing convection, could get interesting tomorrow.

[TwisterFanatic]

[djones65]

At 0700 UTC (2 a.m. CDT) Playa del Carmen, MX reported NNW or 330 degrees winds at 14 mph and a pressure of 1006 mb. At the same time a ship with unidentified call letters was located near 20.5N and 86.1W was reporting SSE or 160 degrees at 23 knots and had a central pressure of 1006 mb. That would imply that we have a 1005 mb low pressure area near 20.5N and 86.6W. I came up with that position by simply finding the midway point between the ship and Playa del Carmen which is located 20.5N and 87.1W. Once the upper level trough over the extreme northeast Gulf lifts out later today I believe that this system will become much better organized. With a surface pressure of 1006, likely lower I don't think it would take much to finally get a tropical cyclone developing. I expect recon to go in this afternoon and I wouldn't be surprised to see them find a tropical storm. Several reports over the Yucatan Channel today indicated winds of 30 to 40 knots. This of course is not official information, but simply my opinion based on the latest satellite imagery and surface observations.

[wxman57]

It's not a TS now, and there is probably still no closed low center. Winds in the Yucatan Channel have been from the SSE-S at 25-35 kts for over 24 hours. Still looks quite disorganized. Good chance recon is canceled for today.

[KWT]

It has been popping convection near the Yucatan for some time now but if there was a LLC present it'd be close enough for the land obs to likely catch it unless it was a very weak and small LLC.

I don't think it looks that organised, but it is firing constant convection which always means something could develop from it in the end.

[cycloneye]

At least convection mantained overnight, not what happened the night before that dissapeared.

[HURAKAN]

28 knots and 1006 mb

[HURAKAN]

Will we have RECON today? Should know in a few hours

[KWT]

I'm not sure Hurakan, I'm not sure its really needed today and if its going to be a long hard season they may well want to not go over the top on a moderate invest just yet...

Winds do justify 30kts though from the looks of things but I doubt there is any LLC yet.

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT TUE JUL 6 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A SMALL LOW PRESSURE AREA ACCOMPANIED BY CLOUDINESS AND
THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES TO MOVE INLAND OVER SOUTHERN LOUISIANA.
THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...NEAR 0 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING
A TROPICAL CYCLONE. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE OVER
PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN LOUISIANA TODAY.

A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE NORTHERN YUCATAN PENINSULA
CONTINUES TO PRODUCE WIDESPREAD BUT DISORGANIZED CLOUDINESS...
SHOWERS...AND THUNDERSTORMS. THERE IS STILL POTENTIAL FOR GRADUAL
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE
SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THERE IS A
MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS
OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TODAY.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN