ATL: TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO - DISCUSSION

[Ivanhater]

Moisture being drawn north like the models suggested the past couple of days

[BigA]

I would pay attention to the north coast of the Yucatan. It seems that weak systems that pass over the Yucatan often form/reform centers there.

[Sanibel]

I think some are missing the fact the convection motion suggests ongoing cyclogenesis. The only problem is 96L is going to clip cool water north of Yucatan when it emerges and then hit a more hostile ULL synoptic when it fully enters the GOM.

[Wx_Warrior]

I don't recall where anyone is writing this off....Just thinking it will not be a Cat 1.

[Nederlander]

Since models are not really supporting development any longer, and assuming that there is no development, where do you think we'll see the rain hit? Still thinking the central Texas to TX/LA border? Or, since some models moved it south are we thinking about a Central TX/Mexico area?

i think the rain will be pretty much spread across texas from east to west.. i see texas getting a pretty good drenching for this.. at least I am glad to see that we probably wont be in a drought this summer

[RachelAnna]

Since models are not really supporting development any longer, and assuming that there is no development, where do you think we'll see the rain hit? Still thinking the central Texas to TX/LA border? Or, since some models moved it south are we thinking about a Central TX/Mexico area?

i think the rain will be pretty much spread across texas from east to west.. i see texas getting a pretty good drenching for this.. at least I am glad to see that we probably wont be in a drought this summer

No doubt. While I feel bad for the Houston area that tends to flood easily with every good down pour, nothing is as bad as the drought last summer. That was terrible. When do you think we'll begin to see the rain? End of the week, right?

[RainWind]

La. is catching quite a bit of rain at this point. NWS out of NOLA is saying 4-6 inches of rain in our area through tomorrow. Regardless of whether this system develops, we are in for at least another day of rain, and potential flooding where training occurs.

[cperez1594]

Maybe my eyes are missing with me but I am not sure if this is what you all are talking about but I see a MLC or maybe a LLC trying to form in this area. Correct me if I am wrong. I do see a circulation now starting.

http://img823.imageshack.us/img823/5126/visl.jpg

[N2Storms]

[quote="RainWind"]La. is catching quite a bit of rain at this point. NWS out of NOLA is saying 4-6 inches of rain in our area through tomorrow. Regardless of whether this system develops, we are in for at least another day of rain, and potential flooding where training occurs.[/quote]


Yes, that gigantic moisture plume in the EGOM is going to propigate westward...we have had periodic rains every day here for a week...looking forward to the drier air filtering in tomorrow thru the weekend.

[HouTXmetro]

I'm studying the satellite loops and it appears the MLC is trying to move closer to the LL turning to it's NW. I noticed the same thing occured right before Alex except the LL swirl was SW of the MLC before it took off.

[cycloneye]

The very latest.

[cycloneye]

18z Best Track

Is almost on the North Coast of Yucatan.

AL, 96, 2010070618, , BEST, 0, 206N, 886W, 25, 1008, DB

ftp://ftp.tpc.ncep.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/ ... 010.invest

[xironman]

This is what I see, broad MLC storms bursting where it is reaching Campeche.

[HouTXmetro]

This is what I see, broad MLC storms bursting where it is reaching Campeche.

Look at the Low level coulds to the NW of the MLC...I think it's has slowed it's progress an the MLC is attempting to suck in or catch up to it.

[KWT]

A very messy look to 96L right now, not at all impressive to be honest...the moisture being strung out to the north isn't really a very promising look to a developing system .It does have a potent MLC though so that does need to be watched but I suspect the effects for the W.Gluf will be the same whether it develops or not.

[Macrocane]

Maybe my eyes are missing with me but I am not sure if this is what you all are talking about but I see a MLC or maybe a LLC trying to form in this area. Correct me if I am wrong. I do see a circulation now starting.

I think I see a LLC trying to form too near the northwestern tip of the Yucatan Peninsula.

[ROCK]

IMO I would not write off 96L at all
this early in the game.
It still has a lot of water to travel
and even if conditions may not be ideal
in GOM we still may see some development.

I would have to agree with you...regardless of sst's around where ALEX was. There is plenty of potential here. IMO, ssts will have nothing to do with this getting going or not.

http://wxmaps.org/pix/hurpot.html#ATL

[ROCK]

This is what I see, broad MLC storms bursting where it is reaching Campeche.

Look at the Low level coulds to the NW of the MLC...I think it's has slowed it's progress an the MLC is attempting to suck in or catch up to it.

good eye....seen that earlier but didnt want to comment on it...

[ROCK]

A very messy look to 96L right now, not at all impressive to be honest...the moisture being strung out to the north isn't really a very promising look to a developing system .It does have a potent MLC though so that does need to be watched but I suspect the effects for the W.Gluf will be the same whether it develops or not.

I would think that ex-95L / ULL is drawing up this moisture to some extent. Once / IF 96L developes this will not inhibit it....if anything maybe a outflow channel...JMO

[xironman]

A very messy look to 96L right now, not at all impressive to be honest...the moisture being strung out to the north isn't really a very promising look to a developing system .It does have a potent MLC though so that does need to be watched but I suspect the effects for the W.Gluf will be the same whether it develops or not.

Things may be getting marginally better. Check out how fast that ULL feature is retrograding NW out of the Gulf http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/flash-wv.html it is allowing that convection to burst on the Yucatan coast.

Edit: sorry Rock did not see your post.