ATL: TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO - DISCUSSION

[Weatherfreak000]

Probability map.

[wxman57]

To me, it appears to be becoming less organized with time. Convection is on the decline and moisture is being drawn northward across the Gulf. It's always easier to see a mid-level circulation when the convection dies off. Surface obs do not indicate any turning, no LLC forming. A 30% chance of development may be about right, but that's a 70% chance it won't develop.

One thing to take note of as far as models taking it to south Texas, the models do not see the upper-level low off the lower Texas coast correctly. The 12Z GFS, for instance, initializes the upper low about 180 miles south of where it actually is. That means the models may be too far south in taking the disturbance toward south Texas. Looks like another big rainmaker for the mid to upper Texas coast from late Thursday through Friday. But I don't expect more than a tropical disturbance moving ashore at this time.

[KWT]

I would think that ex-95L / ULL is drawing up this moisture to some extent. Once / IF 96L developes this will not inhibit it....if anything maybe a outflow channel...JMO

Yeah it indeed is, but that probably isn't a great thing given you have NW shear over the system and then mid level shear probably racing up over the Yucatan, leaves a bit of a mess.

As for the MLC, you can see it better now because the convection has weakened, it is weakening right now because of being overland.

I do still think we could see weak development of it before landfall but at the moment I still think it has some way to go yet.

[ROCK]

To me, it appears to be becoming less organized with time. Convection is on the decline and moisture is being drawn northward across the Gulf. It's always easier to see a mid-level circulation when the convection dies off. Surface obs do not indicate any turning, no LLC forming. A 30% chance of development may be about right, but that's a 70% chance it won't develop.

One thing to take note of as far as models taking it to south Texas, the models do not see the upper-level low off the lower Texas coast correctly. The 12Z GFS, for instance, initializes the upper low about 180 miles south of where it actually is. That means the models may be too far south in taking the disturbance toward south Texas. Looks like another big rainmaker for the mid to upper Texas coast from late Thursday through Friday. But I don't expect more than a tropical disturbance moving ashore at this time.

Though I agree that it doesnt look all that great but as of yesterday I couldnt even see the MLC. Dont know if it had one then but it has one now. IMO, it looks more put together than it did in days.

[wxman57]

Though I agree that it doesnt look all that great but as of yesterday I couldnt even see the MLC. Dont know if it had one then but it has one now. IMO, it looks more put together than it did in days.

As I said, an MLC is much easier to see without all that convection blocking the view. Here's a graphic showing how the 12Z GFS improperly initialized the upper low in the NW Gulf. Water vapor shows the low about 180 miles north of where the GFS initialized it.

[KWT]

Rock, the MLC was quite obvious yesterday IMO, the only reason its more obvious now is the convection that was blocking it has died off, so you can actually see the swirling far easier at mid levels rather then being blocked out by deep convection.

[ROCK]

Rock, the MLC was quite obvious yesterday IMO, the only reason its more obvious now is the convection that was blocking it has died off, so you can actually see the swirling far easier at mid levels rather then being blocked out by deep convection.

Been looking at this thing too many times it seems. Yesterday is was a blob over the Yucatan. I didnt see any evidence of a MLC. Convection was all confined over land. I agree now that some of it has died off and displaced to the east, you can see it better. I give yall that...

I just think it looks more compact / structured now that it did yesterday....

[xcool22]

thanks wxman57

[xcool22]

[cycloneye]

Nooooooo!! ROCK,dont say it loud

[BigA]

This may have been mentioned before, but vorticity is on the wax at the northeastern tip of the Yucatan.

1500Z



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1800Z



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Certainly close to the deepest of the convection.

[xironman]

The convection that is on the west coast of the Yucatan is starting to get pulled into the MLC. I think the land interaction has been far more injurious to this than any shear. We will see once it is out in the gulf.

[HURAKAN]

Latest

[HURAKAN]

24-48 hours

[poof121]

Some kind of circulation developing around 27N 89W?

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/flash-avn.html

Can see something even better on this:

http://aviationweather.gov/adds/satellite/displaySat.php?region=GULF&isingle=mult_big&itype=ir

[poof121]

Ship report 275 miles south of Grand Isle:

SHIP
Location: 25.1N 89.8W
07/06/2010 2000 UTC
Winds: ESE (120°) at 27.0 kts
Significant Wave Height: 4.9 ft
Dominant Wave period: 2 sec
Atmospheric Pressure: 29.71 in and steady (1005.9 mb)
Air Temperature: 82.4 °F
Water Temperature: 84.2 °F
Visibility: 11 nm

Lowest pressure I've seen all day...

[tolakram]

High speed visible loop. 30 frames, speed it up to get a good idea of the motion.

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/ge ... mframes=30

It really doesn't look all that bad, and i see numerous hints at a LLC starting to form.

[KWT]

MLC doesn't look at all bad right now. I think there is at least some weak turning to the NW of the MLC, its very weak now and is far from closed...but then again it could be simply the fact the SSE winds surging up intothe Gulf that gives it the apperence of turning, I'm not sure.

Will be interesting to see whether Dmax helps to strengthen the convection, esp as it should be over water by that time, it'll be key otherwise it'll be leaving things late to develop.

[tailgater]

The convection that is on the west coast of the Yucatan is starting to get pulled into the MLC. I think the land interaction has been far more injurious to this than any shear. We will see once it is out in the gulf.

Lack of convection over the Yucatan probably a result of the T-storms lasting well into the night, last nite leaving an overcast cloud deck and therefore a lack of heating. Donut look on the IR.

[jasons2k]

A few days ago I thought this was about to develop; I was very concerned for a TS or even a hurricane threat to the Mid-Upper Texas coast.

Now I just think this will be another sheared mess and if it ever gets a name, it'll resemble Fay (2002) but further south, near Brownsville.

My main (or only) concern with this is flooding rains.

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