ATL : TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO - MODELS

[Dean4Storms]

2010 07 05 02 50 140 2.0 3.0 1.7 8 6.2 123 1004.9 26.7 29.4 25.0 MM -3.8 MM


This is the Yucatan pass buoy time at 02:50 AM on Monday morning. Note the pressure of 1004.9mb

Today

last hour.....

07 06 7:50 am SE 25.3 27.2 9.5 8 6.2 SE 29.83 +0.01 83.5 84.0 73.2

Pressure way up and this very close to the low now declared as Invest 96L near Cancun?

[KFDM Meteorologist]

12Z GFS more in line with the EURO being farther south.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_054l.gif

[KFDM Meteorologist]

12Z EXP. GFS way south to. High building in from the east by Thursday.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_054l.gif

[KWT]

Yep indeed it has shifted southward though still no where near as far south as the Euro was when it first started (remember it was down in C.Mexico...)

I like the idea of C.Texas still even if it doesn't develop to be honest...

[Wx_Warrior]

gfs paraz 48h

[KFDM Meteorologist]

Yep indeed it has shifted southward though still no where near as far south as the Euro was when it first started (remember it was down in C.Mexico...)

I like the idea of C.Texas still even if it doesn't develop to be honest...

Depends on the High building in at 500 on exactly when. The NAM and GFS from 12Z have it building in by Thursday keeping it south.

[KWT]

Given we are in a La Nina the models that tend to be more agressive with upper highs, like the ECM+UKMO will be closer to the mark compared to what we saw last year, where the troughy models did better.

All depends on where it decide to develop any center, looks like the models are keying in on the southern region but don't really do anything with it. I concur with that becuse whilst we do have decent MLC turning, the Vorticity is a good deal to the NNE...whenever you have that your going to struggle to get anything.

[Ivanhater]

12z Canadian has nothing

[HouTXmetro]

so basically the models go off where the NHC places the low therefore they are wayy off until we get an LLC?

[clfenwi]

so basically the models go off where the NHC places the low therefore they are wayy off until we get an LLC?

Depends on the model. The BAMs are always ran off the NHC's best track position. Some of the globals (Euro and Canadian) always work from their own analysis, while others (NOGAPS, UKMET) have the vortex artificially inserted to the NHC position. I believe, but am not 100% sure, that's only done when there is a classified system present. HWRF & GFDL work off their own analayses or forecasts, I believe.

[Big O]

12z Canadian has nothing

Wrong. It shows a very weak low pressure system making landfall on TX/MX border (probably just a tropical depression).

[Ivanhater]

12z Canadian has nothing

Wrong. It shows a very weak low pressure system making landfall on TX/MX border (probably just a tropical depression).

Hmm..I didnt see anything on the 4 legend map. Must be very weak.

[cycloneye]

Ivan,he may be referring to this very small green circle south of Brownsville at 60 hours.

[cycloneye]

824
WHXX01 KWBC 061848
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1848 UTC TUE JUL 6 2010

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL962010) 20100706 1800 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
100706 1800 100707 0600 100707 1800 100708 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 20.6N 88.6W 22.2N 90.8W 23.8N 93.2W 25.2N 95.4W
BAMD 20.6N 88.6W 21.6N 90.2W 22.4N 91.9W 23.0N 93.8W
BAMM 20.6N 88.6W 21.8N 90.5W 23.0N 92.7W 24.0N 94.9W
LBAR 20.6N 88.6W 21.8N 90.4W 23.1N 92.4W 24.9N 94.8W
SHIP 25KTS 29KTS 36KTS 41KTS
DSHP 25KTS 31KTS 38KTS 43KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
100708 1800 100709 1800 100710 1800 100711 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 26.3N 97.7W 28.2N 101.8W 30.1N 105.6W 32.3N 107.7W
BAMD 23.6N 95.9W 24.2N 100.3W 25.1N 105.3W 27.0N 109.4W
BAMM 24.9N 97.1W 26.3N 101.6W 27.9N 106.1W 30.0N 109.5W
LBAR 26.5N 97.1W 29.5N 100.4W 31.7N 101.0W 33.3N 99.4W
SHIP 46KTS 53KTS 57KTS 56KTS
DSHP 48KTS 29KTS 27KTS 27KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 20.6N LONCUR = 88.6W DIRCUR = 300DEG SPDCUR = 10KT
LATM12 = 19.8N LONM12 = 86.5W DIRM12 = 301DEG SPDM12 = 10KT
LATM24 = 18.8N LONM24 = 85.3W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 60NM WNDM12 = 30KT
CENPRS = 1008MB OUTPRS = 1009MB OUTRAD = 175NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

[Wx_Warrior]

EURO...12z...weak system further south.

[KWT]

Most models have this as a barely closed low or not even developing, which looks reasonable based on what we are seeing. Most models agree on the general evolution now and that most moisture will be shunted on the NE side of any weak low.

[Nimbus]

Models don't seem to be encouraging much development at this time. Maybe the broad area of low pressure hasn't given any area to focus on. Once the ridge starts building in and convection builds in the gulf we will get a better idea of how the pressure gradient will develop.

[Ikester]

Mind you, many of the models kept a marginal storm at best with Alex, too. Towards the end, Alex was a powerhouse; if you consider just how fast it deepened off the coast. An 8 mile diameter eye and a 947 pressure? Not a single model indicated that that I am aware of.

[KWT]

I'm not so sure thats true though Ikester, quite a few of the models did show a hurricane, I know of several GFDL runs that got upto 100kts and in that case they actually were too strong with it.

Then again I do know what you mean, quite a decent percentage didn't go strong enough with Alex, but then again conditions are more condusive for Alex and it was way more advanced at this point then 96L is.

[Nederlander]

I'm not so sure thats true though Ikester, quite a few of the models did show a hurricane, I know of several GFDL runs that got upto 100kts and in that case they actually were too strong with it.

Then again I do know what you mean, quite a decent percentage didn't go strong enough with Alex, but then again conditions are more condusive for Alex and it was way more advanced at this point then 96L is.

good point KWT.. and also keep in mind how long Alex was in the GoM for.. 96L is moving at a pretty decent trek.. I just think its going to run out of time before it can get its act together.. which is good news for texas..

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