ATL: TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO - DISCUSSION

[HouTXmetro]

If this MLC holds together and a TD results this would be yet ANOTHER example of the Yucatan AIDING development of a weak System.

[ROCK]

As far as track goes always follow the ULL..thats where the weakness is...its running interference for 96L....IMO...

[redfish1]

If this MLC holds together and a TD results this would be yet ANOTHER example of the Yucatan AIDING development of a weak System.

is it possible for it to form tonight?

[ROCK]

If this MLC holds together and a TD results this would be yet ANOTHER example of the Yucatan AIDING development of a weak System.

land acts like a brake...lets things catch up..tightens the envelope. Helps consolidates...anyway thats my theory.....

[ROCK]

If this MLC holds together and a TD results this would be yet ANOTHER example of the Yucatan AIDING development of a weak System.

is it possible for it to form tonight?

anything possible.....we have not seen RI this year in this basin...but we dont have model support so its kinda hard to tell....plenty of potential out there...

[KWT]

It looks decent enough but then again we've seen quite a few times systems that have looked superb and yet haven't quite got the internal structure to get upgraded.

That being said if the convection can develop over the center it'll certainly have a shot as upper conditions are ok for now anyway...certainly better then yesterday...

[Ivanhater]

There is no doubt imo that this has all the energy to get going, I just don't know if time is on this ones side like Alex had with the stall.

[HouTXmetro]

If this MLC holds together and a TD results this would be yet ANOTHER example of the Yucatan AIDING development of a weak System.

is it possible for it to form tonight?

I can't say, I'm not a pro met but here is what to look for....

1. MLC moves NW and consolidates with the LL swirl to it's northwest.
2. Convection sustains and deepens over that area.

Perhaps somebody else can chime in on the chances of that happening tonight.

[ROCK]

Good observation ROCK...vorticity is not in short supply, seems to be two maxes on the north and south ends...

[Ikester]

There is no doubt imo that this has all the energy to get going, I just don't know if time is on this ones side like Alex had with the stall.

Yes, but models are just simply a forecast "tool"; they are NOT the forecast. As we saw with Alex, there were several surprises that the models never picked up on or only one or two did and were dismissed as 'ludicrous.'

[ROCK]

There is no doubt imo that this has all the energy to get going, I just don't know if time is on this ones side like Alex had with the stall.

Yes, but models are just simply a forecast "tool"; they are NOT the forecast. As we saw with Alex, there were several surprises that the models never picked up on or only one or two did and were dismissed as 'ludicrous.'

I dont think he was talking about the models....I think he is referring to real estate.. .we got what another 72 hrs roughly...

[cycloneye]

Up to 40%

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT TUE JUL 6 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE IN ASSOCIATION WITH A BROAD LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED OVER THE NORTHWESTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA OF
MEXICO NEAR MERIDA. THE LOW IS BEING INVESTIGATED THIS EVENING BY
TWO NOAA AIRCRAFT CONDUCTING A RESEARCH MISSION AROUND THE SYSTEM.
DATA FROM THIS MISSION INDICATES ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS REMAIN
CONDUCIVE FOR SOME DEVELOPMENT OF THIS DISTURBANCE DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH.
THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...40 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. HEAVY RAINFALL AND
GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA
DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER LANDSEA/STEWART

[I-wall]

If this MLC holds together and a TD results this would be yet ANOTHER example of the Yucatan AIDING development of a weak System.

is it possible for it to form tonight?

anything possible.....we have not seen RI this year in this basin...but we dont have model support so its kinda hard to tell....plenty of potential out there...

Didnt Alex go through RI immediately before landfall?

[srainhoutx]

Not surprised at all to see an increase to 40% with the P-3 data.

[redfish1]

Not surprised at all to see an increase to 40% with the P-3 data.

will this data be in the models tonight?

[chzzdekr81]

So is Houston pretty much out of this?

[KWT]

Yep not surprising they've upped it to 40%. Interesting to see the wind shift round to a WNW to the west of the Yucatan, there may well be a LLC or at least something close to it a little to the south of the MLC...

Probably will be enough time for development if it can pull itself together, as the NHC said conditions aloft aren't too bad and have improved alot over the last 12hrs.

[BigA]

What data did the planes find that justify a more pro-development analysis? Did the planes sample the disturbance, or did they look at the environmental conditions around the disturbance and conclude that there is not too much wind shear, dry air, et cetera?

[Nederlander]

Didnt Alex go through RI immediately before landfall?

RI is classified as a pressure drop of at least 42 mbs in a 24 hr. period..

To my recollection I dont think Alex came close to that..

[Ivanhater]

What data did the planes find that justify a more pro-development analysis? Did the planes sample the disturbance, or did they look at the environmental conditions around the disturbance and conclude that there is not too much wind shear, dry air, et cetera?

I have a feeling that 1001mb reading waved a red flag