Strong tropical wave near Africa

[NOLA2010]

it is still looking good imo. It might be to low though

[Miami Storm Tracker]

Good evening,

Yes it is still looking good. I would have thought the cold cloud tops would have cooled after hitting the Atlantic.
If it gets a little better organized it may gain some lattitude, it's wait and see.

[Fego]

At 23 UTC... the wave to be still had some convection.


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[cycloneye]

I want to see 24 more hours and see convection persist to then be more enthusiastic.

[ConvergenceZone]

I'm with you on this Luis....I usually jump the gun too quickly on these waves and look like an idiot when the waves are gone 24 hours later.

[Buck]

Yes, it needs to persist a bit longer to have my full attention, but it not to go poof as soon as it hits the water this early in July... I've definitely got an eye on it.

[Gustywind]

I'm with you on this Luis....I usually jump the gun too quickly on these waves and look like an idiot when the waves are gone 24 hours later.

you're 100% right So don't worry it's the warming-up

[BigA]

One semi-important thing is that the convection has persisted yes, but the wave has also re-fired some convection. That's no guarantee that it won't poof (my bet is still on a poof) but it's a step in the right direction.

[Ivanhater]

I will say the GFS has been showing very favorable conditions in the MDR in the mid to long range...

[Gustywind]

[Miami Storm Tracker]

It has lost a lot of the intense storms it had as it left the coast. You no longer see the one big ball of cold cloud tops, it is now more spread out, but still holding the convection. I don't see any models support as of yet.

[Fego]

2:00 pm TWD says it has a 1006 MB... wait and see.

TROPICAL WAVE IS APPROACHING THE W AFRICA COAST ALONG 15W/16W S
OF 17N. A NORTHERN LOW-LEVEL DRY VORTICITY CENTER IS NEAR THE
NRN EXTEND OF THE WAVE AXIS ANALYZED AS A 1006 MB LOW NEAR
17N15W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM
5N-9N BETWEEN 12W-19W.

[hurricaneCW]

You can forget anything developing in the eastern Atlantic right now.

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... split.html

A massive plume of dry air off of Africa all the way into the central Atlantic.

[cycloneye]

That is a massive sal outbreak.

[ColdFusion]

The western Sahel was forcast to be wetter than usual this year thus keeping SAL in check. I wonder if something changed regarding SAL outlooks from earlier in the year.

[HurricaneJoe22]

Wow! That's some serious SAL!

[ConvergenceZone]

I agree, not looking good for the cape verde season. I don't see how all of that SAL is just going to magically go away.

[hurricaneCW]

It's not that unusual to see big outbreaks in early July. June is the peak SAL season and it blends into July. Sal tends to really taper off starting the end of July and throughout the first half of August. The Cape Verde Season really gets going around mid August through Early October. The outbreak is probably the result of the ITCZ continuing to trek further north.

As far as July developments go, I would look around the gulf, the Caribbean, off the southeast coast to maybe the central Atlantic (50w and westward) for any development, which is rather typical for July. As far as anomalies go, we're pretty much at near normal levels when it comes to shear and dry air for early July. I highly doubt we'll see a July similar to 2005.

[KWT]

Yeah that SAL is normal, there were huge outbreaks even in the biggest CV seasons, Bertha in 2008 was an exception as it found itself inbetween the SAL.

Actually this year probably early July will be the peak because everything is a little surpressed still from the huge winter/spring -ve NAO and it'll probably take the weakening of the QBO signal to allow things to lift off more.

The SAL is just a sign of the ITCZ, every single seaosn in history will have had a big SAL outbreak at some point...its when they happen in late August that it can really hurt a season...

Hurricanecw, I've never been too keen on a huge July, above average but La Nina's aren't well known for active starts ususally...its that meat of the season where they tend to roll off one after another.

[NOLA2010]

the next wave coming off is alot higher in latitude but there is still to much SAL