ATL: TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO - DISCUSSION

[siriusonellc.]

Either way after Ike and what I went through here in Texas (Brazoria County) I'm def not counting anything out. Esp with (from what I remember) The difficulty the models had with it.
But in the models defense Ike had a long trip to Texas.

[Annie Oakley]

Either way after Ike and what I went through here in Texas (Brazoria County) I'm def not counting anything out. Esp with (from what I remember) The difficulty the models had with it.

You go Texas! Especially the likes of Brazoria Co. On the number one Tier........

[siriusonellc.]

wOOt!

[Sanibel]

Boxed-in by cool water north of Yucatan, land interaction over Yucatan, and a ULL punching in from the west. Should rebound if it can get over water. (Maybe)

[StarmanHDB]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/rb-l.jpg

Looks all swirly, but where's the beef?

[ozonepete]

OK, I gotta go to bed too. I'm sorry I can't post the data, but this has quite positive SSTs, low shear and great mid-level moisture for the next day or two. There is no reason why it shouldn't be a TS by tomorrow night or Thursday morning. I still think it has the same problem that Alex did - it will be too much stretched out on a north south axis at first and that will hinder it from getting past TS status until it consolidates back to the south if it ever does. Just IMHO.

[siriusonellc.]

Looks like it's trying to clean it's act up.

[latitude_20]

Even though convection looks to have taken a bit of a cliff-dive, looks to me as if the LLC and MLC have consolidated, and apparent circulation is still fairly significant. Thoughts?

[Nederlander]

Either way after Ike and what I went through here in Texas (Brazoria County) I'm def not counting anything out. Esp with (from what I remember) The difficulty the models had with it.

welcome aboard, I live in Brazoria County myself.. there are a few of us on here from southern Houston (and a couple from the north side of town).. But as far as counting anything out, I think it depends on whats happening.. Every situation is different. I have learned over the years on this forum to trust #1 the pro-mets and #2 the models/obs .. I trust the NHC with track, but as far development and intensity, its hard for me to put a lot of stock into them. I understand they are under a microscope, but IMO they are pressured by outlying factors (the media, etc.) instead of pure data or obs.. 95L is a perfect example.. But I dont want to get into that on here.. My point is, its good that you never count anything out, but a lot of times ive seen people just outright deny the obs or what the promets have to say just because their 'eyes' see something that really isnt there.. a system can look really nice on satellite, but when you take into account other factors other than appearance, it makes it a lot easier to at least have reasoning when it comes to chances of a storms development.. In 96L's case it seems like more of a timing issue to me than its environment.. it just isnt structurally sound..

[Nederlander]

Even though convection looks to have taken a bit of a cliff-dive, looks to me as if the LLC and MLC have consolidated, and apparent circulation is still fairly significant. Thoughts?

I dont think theres been any surface obs to support an LLC.. unless i missed that somewhere (which is very possible)

Edit: I also dont see how its getting its act together? Everytime I look at IR imagery, there is less and less convection.. I know its been over land (the MLC).. but even after entering the GoM, its going to be in relatively cooler waters (I assume this is because of Alex)...

[ozonepete]

Either way after Ike and what I went through here in Texas (Brazoria County) I'm def not counting anything out. Esp with (from what I remember) The difficulty the models had with it.

welcome aboard, I live in Brazoria County myself.. there are a few of us on here from southern Houston (and a couple from the north side of town).. But as far as counting anything out, I think it depends on whats happening.. Every situation is different. I have learned over the years on this forum to trust #1 the pro-mets and #2 the models/obs .. I trust the NHC with track, but as far development and intensity, its hard for me to put a lot of stock into them. I understand they are under a microscope, but IMO they are pressured by outlying factors (the media, etc.) instead of pure data or obs.. 95L is a perfect example.. But I dont want to get into that on here.. My point is, its good that you never count anything out, but a lot of times ive seen people just outright deny the obs or what the promets have to say just because their 'eyes' see something that really isnt there.. a system can look really nice on satellite, but when you take into account other factors other than appearance, it makes it a lot easier to at least have reasoning when it comes to chances of a storms development.. In 96L's case it seems like more of a timing issue to me than its environment.. it just isnt structurally sound..

Well said. Good night.

[Duddy]

Anyone from Matagorda? You know, that one county just the SW of Brazoria.

I know, it's the couty that know one cares about. In fact, whenever I see that a storm is tracking towards our county, the weather guy says it going towards Matagorda Bay. Like we are just all about a bay.

[ROCK]

really dont understand the cool water theory...this map shows potential for a cat 3 right off the coast. All things equal of course.

http://wxmaps.org/pix/hurpot.html#ATL


convection is waning tonight which I had thought it would be building. Proves I know nothing about TS genesis..... still has the look of a vigorious MLC but if it cannot tap into the surface its all for not....reminds me of Humberto....just a MLC working its way up the coast until the final moments it found its LLC during D-max...

[siriusonellc.]

Either way after Ike and what I went through here in Texas (Brazoria County) I'm def not counting anything out. Esp with (from what I remember) The difficulty the models had with it.

welcome aboard, I live in Brazoria County myself.. there are a few of us on here from southern Houston (and a couple from the north side of town).. But as far as counting anything out, I think it depends on whats happening.. Every situation is different. I have learned over the years on this forum to trust #1 the pro-mets and #2 the models/obs .. I trust the NHC with track, but as far development and intensity, its hard for me to put a lot of stock into them. I understand they are under a microscope, but IMO they are pressured by outlying factors (the media, etc.) instead of pure data or obs.. 95L is a perfect example.. But I dont want to get into that on here.. My point is, its good that you never count anything out, but a lot of times ive seen people just outright deny the obs or what the promets have to say just because their 'eyes' see something that really isnt there.. a system can look really nice on satellite, but when you take into account other factors other than appearance, it makes it a lot easier to at least have reasoning when it comes to chances of a storms development.. In 96L's case it seems like more of a timing issue to me than its environment.. it just isnt structurally sound..

I agree. It looks like poo.

[ROCK]

Anyone from Matagorda? You know, that one county just the SW of Brazoria.

I know, it's the couty that know one cares about. In fact, whenever I see that a storm is tracking towards our county, the weather guy says it going towards Matagorda Bay. Like we are just all about a bay.

Nederland and AFM are from Pearland... about as close as you can get I guess....still want to visit the Indianola marker one day...thats around your area....


sorry OT....

[siriusonellc.]

Pearland? Me too!

[Houstonia]

Either way after Ike and what I went through here in Texas (Brazoria County) I'm def not counting anything out. Esp with (from what I remember) The difficulty the models had with it.

welcome aboard, I live in Brazoria County myself.. there are a few of us on here from southern Houston (and a couple from the north side of town)

Southwest Houston (Sharpstown) chiming in!! We may have tons of low-rent apartments here, but we LOVE our tree-lined neighborhoods.

(house - post Ike)

[siriusonellc.]

I remember scenes like that all too well.

[Ivanhater]

Just a friendly reminder to keep the topic to 96L

[siriusonellc.]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/flash-avn.html

Last few frames it's really coming unsprung.