ATL: TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO - DISCUSSION

[Annie Oakley]

Sorry Ivan-Texans getting all nostalgic here.....back to 96L

[bahamaswx]

Structure's good. Just waiting for her to refire.

[latitude_20]

siriusonellc., I don't know - we had Alex on his death bed the night before he got his name.

[siriusonellc.]

you're right.. just getting stuck on the whole looks this way on sat/IR... when in reality....


edit: on second look..

[HouTXmetro]

Should Dmax be occurring now?

[HURAKAN]

You can see the ULL over the Texas coast

[HURAKAN]

Should Dmax be occurring now?

It needs to move over water too.

[Sanibel]

There's black IR happening in the bursts over land south of Yucatan. That's energy.



96L will enter the Gulf just in time to hit the ULL as it rebounds. It's anyone's guess. The Gulf will show us what it has in terms of favorability.


D-max's and D-min's can be strangely timed with some systems and happen latter in the morning.


When the Loop current enters the Gulf it pulls water away from the shallow shelf north of Yucatan. This water is replaced by cooler water from below the surface. It's a small pocket but cooler never the less.




.

[HURAKAN]

Everything seems to be coming together.



Anti-cyclone developing over 96L



vorticity in the central GoM falls apart, vorticity near the tip of NW Yucatán taking over



96L is staked from 500 mb to 850 mb.

[HURAKAN]

284
ABNT20 KNHC 070530
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT WED JUL 7 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

CLOUDINESS...SHOWERS...AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE IN ASSOCIATION
WITH A BROAD LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED NEAR THE NORTHWESTERN
COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. ALTHOUGH THIS SYSTEM HAS CHANGED
LITTLE IN ORGANIZATION OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS...ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS APPEAR TO BE CONDUCIVE FOR SOME DEVELOPMENT OF THIS
DISTURBANCE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS IT MOVES WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...40
PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS. HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE OVER
PORTIONS OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TODAY.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

[HouTXmetro]

I agree Hurakan, just awaiting the convective burst. Moisture is increasing over the area i think is the center.

[siriusonellc.]

I agree Hurakan, just awaiting the convective burst. Moisture is increasing over the area i think is the center.

ditto.

[Nederlander]

I agree Hurakan, just awaiting the convective burst. Moisture is increasing over the area i think is the center.

ditto.

ehh maybe im just a pessimist.. but im just not seeing anything

[xcool22]

Nederlander/ me too

[HouTXmetro]

Well I thought I was, but FAIL..

[antonlsu]

Is it just me or do yall see the MLC or LLC spin off of the western tip of the yucatan

[HouTXmetro]

I see it off the NW tip

[xcool22]

move to nw hmmm

[BigA]

I reckon tomorrow's the make or break day. NHC says 40%; I'd fathom it's about right. Good vorticity, decent upper level support. If it can get some convection, its game on.

Even by make or break, I mean tropical storm vs. wave, but it's important for the statistics, and even tracking a middling storm for a day and a half is fun.

[latitude_20]

antonlsu, I've been watching what appears to be MLC; LLC, hard to say for now, waiting for visible. MLC looks to be just off the NW tip of the Yucatan.

Should be interesting to see what this thing does once it gets some fuel.