ATL : TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO - MODELS

[Ivanhater]

ivan, where do u get those graphics? look great!

http://www.coaps.fsu.edu/~maue/weather/

HWRF and GFDL come out the fastest on this site

[Ivanhater]

GFDL

[Duddy]

I can't imagine how p****d off the residents of Brownsville may be if another storm hits.

Good model agreement though, so long as they are initializing correctly.

[HURAKAN]

Thanks, ivan!

[Wx_Warrior]

0z EURO...nothing special...weak...nearly same as Tue 12z

Does have another way next week in w. carib across yucatan into Mex....that gonna be a the flavor of June/July?

[Wx_Warrior]

gfs ops 12z 30h

[Wx_Warrior]

gfs para 12z 30h

[clfenwi]

18Z Tropical guidance

Code: Select all

637
WHXX01 KWBC 071830
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1830 UTC WED JUL 7 2010
 
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
 
ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
 
DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL962010) 20100707 1800 UTC
 
        ...00 HRS...   ...12 HRS...   ...24 HRS. ..   ...36 HRS...
        100707  1800   100708  0600   100708  1800   100709  0600
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    23.8N  93.6W   25.2N  95.8W   26.4N  98.0W   27.4N 100.0W
BAMD    23.8N  93.6W   24.6N  95.6W   25.4N  97.7W   26.0N  99.7W
BAMM    23.8N  93.6W   24.9N  95.7W   25.9N  97.9W   26.8N 100.0W
LBAR    23.8N  93.6W   25.0N  95.4W   26.5N  97.5W   28.1N  99.5W
SHIP        30KTS          36KTS          43KTS          47KTS
DSHP        30KTS          36KTS          35KTS          29KTS
 
        ...48 HRS...   ...72 HRS...   ...96 HRS. ..   ..120 HRS...
        100709  1800   100710  1800   100711  1800   100712  1800
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    28.2N 102.1W   29.4N 106.3W   30.6N 108.7W   30.4N 109.5W
BAMD    26.5N 101.9W   27.7N 106.4W   29.3N 109.9W   29.7N 111.9W
BAMM    27.5N 102.1W   28.9N 106.3W   30.6N 109.1W   30.7N 110.3W
LBAR    29.7N 101.0W   32.6N 101.6W   34.3N  98.8W   34.4N  93.7W
SHIP        52KTS          60KTS          62KTS          55KTS
DSHP        28KTS          27KTS          27KTS          27KTS
 
         ...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR =  23.8N LONCUR =  93.6W DIRCUR = 310DEG SPDCUR =   8KT
LATM12 =  22.8N LONM12 =  92.4W DIRM12 = 302DEG SPDM12 =   8KT
LATM24 =  22.0N LONM24 =  90.7W
WNDCUR =   30KT RMAXWD =   75NM WNDM12 =   25KT
CENPRS = 1007MB OUTPRS = 1009MB OUTRAD =  225NM SDEPTH =   M
RD34NE =    0NM RD34SE =    0NM RD34SW =    0NM RD34NW =   0NM
 
$$
NNNN




(edited to add model graphic)

[sphelps8681]

This model plot looks like there has been a slight shift North from previous one I saw.

https://my.sfwmd.gov/sfwmd/common/image ... orm_96.gif.

[Portastorm]

This model plot looks like there has been a slight shift North from previous one I saw.

https://my.sfwmd.gov/sfwmd/common/image ... orm_96.gif.

Yep. You'll notice that some of the runs on the graphic you reference are 18z runs and not 12z runs from this morning.

[KWT]

Yep there does look like there has been an adjustment northwards a little close to the border but just on the Texas side.

[redfish1]

i think the models will keep shifting north throughout the night, but thats just my opinion

[southerngale]

i think the models will keep shifting north throughout the night, but thats just my opinion

Why? What are you seeing that makes you think that? There seems to be a pretty good consensus.

[redfish1]

i think the models will keep shifting north throughout the night, but thats just my opinion

Why? What are you seeing that makes you think that? There seems to be a pretty good consensus.

well there was a pretty good consensus this morning south of brownsville when it was moving WNW and now that it is moving NW and some say even NNW i would think the models would shift north. its really just a guess on my part.

[Nederlander]

well there was a pretty good consensus this morning south of brownsville when it was moving WNW and now that it is moving NW and some say even NNW i would think the models would shift north. its really just a guess on my part.

The problem is that we have no clear, defined LLC.. seems to be a broader system with a weak LLC.. If I had give a heading I would put it at about 310 or so.. I dont really feel like extrapolating it, but I am guessing this is going to come in right at the border, give or take a few miles on either side.. but like I said, theres no clear cut LLC, so even when you say landfall, what does that mean? that could cover a large area if you have a broad LLC... the models arent going to do much budging now that its this close to landfall.. bunch of rain, thats about it..

[KWT]

I'd say the models look pretty good for now, they are pretty tightly clustered and whilst it could move about a little still to the north, I think in the end the impacts from this will be the same regardless...

ps, this time bar the first 2-3 runs the ECM has really nailed this system, no doubts!

[HURAKAN]

994
WHXX01 KWBC 080010
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0010 UTC THU JUL 8 2010

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL962010) 20100708 0000 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
100708 0000 100708 1200 100709 0000 100709 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 23.5N 93.8W 24.9N 95.9W 26.2N 97.9W 27.3N 99.8W
BAMD 23.5N 93.8W 24.4N 95.8W 25.2N 97.7W 25.8N 99.6W
BAMM 23.5N 93.8W 24.7N 95.9W 25.8N 97.9W 26.7N 99.9W
LBAR 23.5N 93.8W 24.8N 96.0W 26.5N 98.2W 28.2N 100.3W
SHIP 30KTS 38KTS 46KTS 50KTS
DSHP 30KTS 38KTS 37KTS 30KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
100710 0000 100711 0000 100712 0000 100713 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 28.2N 101.7W 29.7N 105.2W 30.6N 106.1W 30.1N 105.0W
BAMD 26.3N 101.6W 27.2N 105.9W 27.9N 109.2W 28.0N 110.8W
BAMM 27.5N 101.8W 28.8N 105.5W 29.5N 107.5W 28.7N 107.8W
LBAR 29.9N 101.7W 32.7N 101.9W 34.3N 98.2W 35.7N 91.4W
SHIP 54KTS 58KTS 58KTS 55KTS
DSHP 28KTS 27KTS 27KTS 27KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 23.5N LONCUR = 93.8W DIRCUR = 310DEG SPDCUR = 10KT
LATM12 = 22.1N LONM12 = 92.0W DIRM12 = 306DEG SPDM12 = 10KT
LATM24 = 21.1N LONM24 = 90.1W
WNDCUR = 30KT RMAXWD = 65NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1005MB OUTPRS = 1009MB OUTRAD = 200NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

$$
NNNN

[KWT]

SHIPS a tiny bit more agressive this time getting upto 38kts but really its not that much different to the last few calls.

[Wx_Warrior]

Models aren't going to "creep up north" overnight. Same was said about Alex about a day before landfall. Don't see much creeping up this late in the game.

GFS 0z 24h ops

[Wx_Warrior]

gfs para 0z 18h