
ATL: TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO - DISCUSSION
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- HouTXmetro
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - DISCUSSION
I was expecting more convection than this but there is some convection start to pop around 96L.
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Convection developing on the western side of the circulation but its still devoid of much deep convection over the system. It has got a chance but it does have to really develop its convecrion soon if it is to develop before its inland.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - DISCUSSION
Time is running out for this to develop. If convection does not flare in the next 6 hours, I think recon will be canceled.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - DISCUSSION
cycloneye wrote:Time is running out for this to develop. If convection does not flare in the next 6 hours, I think recon will be canceled.
Yep, it started falling apart early last night as far as convection... and has not recovered as of yet.. good bet recon will be cancelled unless something drastic happens.. we've gotten a ton of rain on the coast in MS the past three days... still don't think this thing will amount to anything but....
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - DISCUSSION
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT WED JUL 7 2010
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE LOCATED OFF THE NORTHWESTERN COAST OF THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA REMAIN DISORGANIZED. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR
MARGINALLY CONDUCIVE FOR SOME DEVELOPMENT OF THIS DISTURBANCE AS
IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH. THERE IS A MEDIUM
CHANCE...40 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
BEFORE IT MOVES INLAND OVER MEXICO OR SOUTHERN TEXAS IN A DAY OR
SO.
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
$$
FORECASTER BROWN
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT WED JUL 7 2010
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE LOCATED OFF THE NORTHWESTERN COAST OF THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA REMAIN DISORGANIZED. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR
MARGINALLY CONDUCIVE FOR SOME DEVELOPMENT OF THIS DISTURBANCE AS
IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH. THERE IS A MEDIUM
CHANCE...40 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
BEFORE IT MOVES INLAND OVER MEXICO OR SOUTHERN TEXAS IN A DAY OR
SO.
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
$$
FORECASTER BROWN
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - DISCUSSION
HurrMark wrote:Calling Bones...
Wouldn't write it off yet. New convection is firing near the center.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - DISCUSSION
HurrMark wrote:Calling Bones...
I wouldn't call Bones just yet. There is a sfc low down there...albeit very broad. 42055 is reporting a NW wind around the circulation...and there are strong winds to the NE of the broad center...sustained at around 30...due to the pressure gradient.
With convection starting to fire now that its moving away from the Yucatan...I think it actually has a good chance of being upgraded before it moves inland south of Brownsville. Does it get a name?
That's more uncertain. Maybe as some sort of hybrid system where the strongest winds are 100-200 miles NE of the center. If the MLC hadn't collapsed last night...I think it would have certainly been named later today...but as it stands...it has to totally rebuild a core and it doesn't have time for that.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - DISCUSSION

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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - DISCUSSION
Loop: http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/ge ... mframes=10
Looks like the center of a broad ... turning ... is half way to Tex/Mex already.
Looks like the center of a broad ... turning ... is half way to Tex/Mex already.

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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - DISCUSSION
We'll have to wait a bit longer for Bonnie, because 96L looks even worse this morning than yesterday. A hybrid, semi-tropical system is an outside possibility, but it's running out of real estate, and there appears to be plenty of dry air ahead of its projected path.
Dr. McCoy may be needed ... later today or (more likely) tomorrow. I'm fairly certain 96L will not be a Bonnie-type storm from 1986.
Dr. McCoy may be needed ... later today or (more likely) tomorrow. I'm fairly certain 96L will not be a Bonnie-type storm from 1986.
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- latitude_20
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - DISCUSSION
Yep, looks like it may have already been interacting with that dry air already which probably explains the way it looks this morning.
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