ATL: TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO - DISCUSSION

[Air Force Met]

I just don't see anything of significance on this loop.


http://www.rap.ucar.edu/weather/satelli ... uration=12

There is a low centered near 24N / 93W. I know a lot here are dismissing it (and I am dismissing any significant development above Min TS at best)...but you cannot dismiss a closed low in the Gulf during hurricane season...especially one with thunderstorms forming around it. It doesn't take long to get something going...

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20CONUS&lat=24&lon=-93&info=vis&zoom=1&width=2800&height=2000&type=Animation&numframes=13&map=latlon

[dhweather]

There is always a chance it will develop, but don't think it will develop very much, TS at best. It does look like the ULL is pulling away, so that may give 96L a better chance to make it. The only thing lacking at this moment is significant convection, there's already a closed low in place.

[Frank P]

I just don't see anything of significance on this loop.


http://www.rap.ucar.edu/weather/satelli ... uration=12

There is a low centered near 24N / 93W. I know a lot here are dismissing it (and I am dismissing any significant development above Min TS at best)...but you cannot dismiss a closed low in the Gulf during hurricane season...especially one with thunderstorms forming around it. It doesn't take long to get something going...

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20CONUS&lat=24&lon=-93&info=vis&zoom=1&width=2800&height=2000&type=Animation&numframes=13&map=latlon

Yeah, that is the one I saw on the vis sat loop about and posted it about 45 minutes ago... looks to be winding up somewhat more as well.. at least it has what looks to be a closed low... finally

[tolakram]

My guess for this season is we will have high numbers due to a lot of TD and low end TS development due to generally favorable (but never guaranteed perfect) conditions, which is why I believe we need to watch development like this.

You can go back to the 2005 season and find threads about it being boring due to lack of development ... which apparently meant not a lot of storms destroyed peoples lives ... till the next month anyway.

[dolebot_Broward_NW]

I see it as roughly 23N/94W. Looks closed, think this is the same thing AFM is talking about. My non-pro gut tells me this is all we will see though.

[KFDM Meteorologist]

It's slowly developing

[Air Force Met]

I see it as roughly 23N/94W. Looks closed, think this is the same thing AFM is talking about. My non-pro gut tells me this is all we will see though.

It is closed. 42055 well to the south has a west wind...and the lower CU field on the SW side is moving east...

Certainly nothing to write home about...but it is closed...which is a big improvement from yesterday.

[cperez1594]

It is slowly but surely getting it act together. People just throw the flag in right away! Jeez. Give it time. You can rush beauty out of a women and remember we might have Bonnie even if it is a TD or Mimimal TS! Women always take there time lol.

[dabears]

It is definitely at least a depression now. Might be a tropical storm by the end of the day. Looking a lot better organized.

[Kludge]

I'm wondering if we may be seeing a repeat of the 95l scenario, with a quick ramp-up near landfall...leaving us wondering what it was that just hit us...

[HURAKAN]

NOUS42 KNHC 071600
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1200 PM EDT WED 07 JULY 2010
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 08/1100Z TO 09/1100Z JULY 2010
TCPOD NUMBER.....10-037

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. SUSPECT AREA (WESTERN GULF)
FLIGHT ONE - TEAL 70
A. 08/1200Z
B. AFXXX 01BBA INVEST
C. 08/0945Z
D. 25.5N 96.5W
E. 08/1100Z TO 08/1700Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

FLIGHT TWO - TEAL 71
A. 08/1800,2100, 09/0000Z
B. AFXXX 0202A CYCLONE
C. 08/1530Z
D. 26.0N 97.0W
E. 08/1730Z TO 09/0000Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK.....NEGATIVE.
3. REMARKS:
A. TASKING FOR 07/1800Z, 08/0600Z, AND 08/1200Z
CANCELED BY NHC AT 07/1220Z. B. NOAA WILL CONDUCT RESEARCH MISSIONS INTO THIS
AREA WITH THE G-IV TAKING OFF AT 07/1730Z AND
A P-3, OPERATING AT 12,000 FT., TAKING OFF AT
07/2000Z AND AGAIN AT 08/0800Z.

II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.

[Stormcenter]

Well in my defense it didn't look like much this morning and the models were still not giddy about it either. I still think it will struggle to become anything significant but crazier have happened in the tropics so I guess anything is possible.

[HURAKAN]

To me it looks disorganized and time is running out

[redfish1]

so is this looking to be a south texas storm or is it possible the models will swing north again?

[Air Force Met]

It is definitely at least a depression now. Might be a tropical storm by the end of the day. Looking a lot better organized.

I hate to be cynical...but whether or not it gets called a TD really depends on who's working the desk right now at the NHC.

[HURAKAN]

It is definitely at least a depression now. Might be a tropical storm by the end of the day. Looking a lot better organized.

I hate to be cynical...but whether or not it gets called a TD really depends on who's working the desk right now at the NHC.

So, it doesn't depend on this definition!!

Tropical Cyclone:
A warm-core non-frontal synoptic-scale cyclone, originating over tropical or subtropical waters, with organized deep convection and a closed surface wind circulation about a well-defined center. Once formed, a tropical cyclone is maintained by the extraction of heat energy from the ocean at high temperature and heat export at the low temperatures of the upper troposphere. In this they differ from extratropical cyclones, which derive their energy from horizontal temperature contrasts in the atmosphere (baroclinic effects).

LOL

[dolebot_Broward_NW]

Watching the outflow boundaries spat out to the east and northeast from the western bit of convection.

[HouTXmetro]

A sheared mess but I see outflow channels being established and an expanding CDO. IMO should be a TD soon.

[thetruesms]

It is definitely at least a depression now. Might be a tropical storm by the end of the day. Looking a lot better organized.

I hate to be cynical...but whether or not it gets called a TD really depends on who's working the desk right now at the NHC.

So, it doesn't depend on this definition!!

Tropical Cyclone:
A warm-core non-frontal synoptic-scale cyclone, originating over tropical or subtropical waters, with organized deep convection and a closed surface wind circulation about a well-defined center. Once formed, a tropical cyclone is maintained by the extraction of heat energy from the ocean at high temperature and heat export at the low temperatures of the upper troposphere. In this they differ from extratropical cyclones, which derive their energy from horizontal temperature contrasts in the atmosphere (baroclinic effects).

LOL

hello, subjectivity

[Comanche]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/flash-wv.html

Looks like Courtney Love on a three day bender. Dry air, ULL and rapidly running out of real estate.