ATL: TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO - DISCUSSION

[dabears]

Looking better and better. I would think the Tropical Storm watches and warnings would be getting out soon for South Texas and NE Mexico

[jasons2k]

When Fay was named in 2002 it looked at lot better than 96L

I had lunch on the seawall in Galveston that day. Trust me, Fay was nothing to write home about.

But Grace may be the better "analogy", I'll give you that

[cwachal]

Looking better and better. I would think the Tropical Storm watches and warnings would be getting out soon for South Texas and NE Mexico

I do not think they issue watches until a system is designated as at least a TD

[southerngale]

it looks to be moving NW to me can someone more educated confirm this?

It looks WNW to me. If it changes direction, which isn't expected, someone will post about it.

[HURAKAN]

Nice pic

[dabears]

yeah I know especially with Recon not out there.

Looking better and better. I would think the Tropical Storm watches and warnings would be getting out soon for South Texas and NE Mexico

I do not think they issue watches until a system is designated as at least a TD

[thetruesms]

Looking better and better. I would think the Tropical Storm watches and warnings would be getting out soon for South Texas and NE Mexico

I do not think they issue watches until a system is designated as at least a TD

I think it was revealed in the 95L thread that watches/warnings could be issued first, though they would be loath to do it. You probably want to go back to the thread and check that to be sure, though

[sphelps8681]

Nice pic

Is it me or do I see a face in those clouds. Is that Bagdad Bob?

BTW - It's write above the wording at the bottom of the map. I had my son look and he saw it to. Don't tell know one else can see that.

[cycloneye]

18z Best track

AL, 96, 2010070718, , BEST, 0, 238N, 936W, 30, 1007, DB

ftp://ftp.tpc.ncep.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/ ... 010.invest

[clfenwi]

Bumped up to 30 knots for 18Z best track:

AL, 96, 2010070718, , BEST, 0, 238N, 936W, 30, 1007,

[Sanibel]

Maybe a slight slow-down and recovery from being over land. The convection is moving over the distorted lower level spiral.

[dabears]

34.6 mph, might as well call it 35

[redfish1]

maybe someone can help me understand why 96L is not following the low pressure to its north??

[chzzdekr81]

Looking better and better. I would think the Tropical Storm watches and warnings would be getting out soon for South Texas and NE Mexico

I do not think they issue watches until a system is designated as at least a TD

They can issue warnings and watches on an unclassified system.

[clfenwi]

~3 hrs ago ASCAT just managed to catch a little bit of the area of interest:





(edited to tweak wording)

[chzzdekr81]

maybe someone can help me understand why 96L is not following the low pressure to its north??

I've been wondering that too. Hopefully someone will help us out.

[Ivanhater]

IMO center relocations take time and this doesn't have that. I still don't think this will be upgraded before it moves inland. If it had more time I think it would be a shoe in.

[Weatherfreak000]

IMO center relocations take time and this doesn't have that. I still don't think this will be upgraded before it moves inland. If it had more time I think it would be a shoe in.

95L had less time though, and we saw what happened (Or according to NHC), almost happened there.

[HURAKAN]

24 hours

[cperez1594]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
130 PM CDT WED JUL 7 2010

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 7 AM FRIDAY/...A BROAD AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE NW OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA CONTINUES TO MOVE WNW AT 10 TO
15 MPH. THE ENVIRONMENT REMAINS FAVORABLE FOR MORE DEVELOPMENT...
AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM BEFORE THE LOW PRESSURE AREA
REACHES LAND. IN THE MEAN TIME...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW PRESSURE AREA...AND SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE
INCREASING IN COVERAGE ALONG THE LOWER TEXAS COAST AND OVER DEEP
SOUTH TEXAS. THE MAIN THREAT FOR THE NEXT 36 TO 48 HOURS WILL BE
FLOODING RAIN AS COPIOUS MOISTURE MOVES ASHORE IN AN UNSETTLED
ENVIRONMENT...AND A FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN POSTED. TOTAL RAIN
AMOUNTS DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS ARE FORECAST TO BE FROM 2 TO
4 INCHES WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS AS HIGH AS 6 INCHES.