ATL: TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO - DISCUSSION

[TwisterFanatic]

Just checking in.. How is this thing doing today is it still pathetic looking?

[HURAKAN]

Looking good in the loop

Link - http://www.rap.ucar.edu/weather/satelli ... duration=8

[Ivanhater]

TCFA issued

[HURAKAN]

WTNT01 KNGU 072000
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT 072000Z JUL 10//
RMKS/1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
100 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 23.8N 93.6W TO 26.1N 98.8W
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 20 TO 25 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 071930Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 23.8N 93.6W. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 13
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED JUST WEST OF THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA TRACKS WEST-NORTHWEST TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST COAST
OF MEXICO. THE LATEST METSAT IMAGERY INDICATES INCREASED CONVECTION,
WHICH IS INDICATIVE OF STRENGTHENING. INCREASED SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES
IN THE REGION AND LIGHT UPPER LEVEL WIND SHEAR WILL PROVIDE FAVORABLE
CONDITIONS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED
BY 082000Z.//

[RachelAnna]

Not the greatest of convection. But visible shows it continuing to get better organized. I would be surprised if this was not upgraded soon. Still looks to be moving just a tad north of west northwest.

Think it'll continue the nnw movement long? If so, do you think we are going to see any big changes in models?

[chzzdekr81]

To me, it looks like it's moving NNW. Anyone else?

[xcool22]

nnw here Visible Satellite from weathertap best...

[HURAKAN]

latest water vapor

[JonathanBelles]

TCFA issued

When you post items like this, can you please explain them for the newer members coming aboard? Thanks!

[Wx_Warrior]

dont think models are going to change much....

[BigA]

Looking good in the loop

May be a trick of the eyes but in the last few frames it looks like the turning, which was visible at the whole time at the low levels, becomes increasingly visible in the higher convection above the low level spin.

[Ivanhater]

Yeah Jonathan...Hurakan posted the text with it below my post..pretty much explains it.

Basically when the Tropical Cyclone Formation Alert (TCFA) is issued, it usually mean an upgrade is around the corner, not always though

[southerngale]

Parts of the Beaumont area (in Hardin and Jefferson counties) had already received 3 - 5 inches of rain just by 11am this morning, from the morning storms, and it's rained a lot after that. That's on top of already very saturated grounds. It looks like with 96L heading toward Deep South Texas or NE MX (or whatever it will be called by landfall) will bring even more rain up here, along with much of Texas. Hopefully, if anyone still needs rain, they'll be the ones to get most of it.

96L looks a LOT better than it did a mere 12 hours ago!

[Air Force Met]

Looking good in the loop

May be a trick of the eyes but in the last few frames it looks like the turning, which was visible at the whole time at the low levels, becomes increasingly visible in the higher convection above the low level spin.

You are correct. I made mention of this to a friend of mine an hour or so ago (over the phone). Its the mid level vorticity beginning to spin up...which means that 96L is trying to get some sort of stacking together.

[Hurricane Andrew]

I am a touch worried for C texas. They have already had alot of rain, and now they are gonna have more. WOW> Poor texas...everything's always bigger in Texas. i guess that goes for Floods too.

[Over my head]

LOL

hello, subjectivity

Exactly. What Avila thinks is organized and well defined is not what Stewart thinks is organized or well defined.

Avila is a storm killer...doesn't like to intensify them...think of him as "Round Up" for hurricanes...

Stewart is a storm builder...loves to name them and strengthen them...think of him as "Miracle Grow" for hurricanes...

Thanks AFMet ! I understood that perfectly.

[wxman57]

Still looks quite pathetic to me. It's lacking a well-defined LLC and has no "organized" convection. Convective tops are warming near the weak low pressure area. I don't see anything to warrant an upgrade. Doesn't qualify as a TD in my opinion. That puts me in the Avila camp. Now if we see a big burst of heavy convection over that weak LLC tonight, then that would help to tighten up the circulation and would warrant an upgrade. But I think that's unlikely given the general lack of surface convergence near the low.

Besides, I win a free lunch tomorrow if NHC doesn't upgrade before 00Z tonight.

[wx88]

I think someone may be blinded by a free lunch. I think it is a TD already.

[Tireman4]

Besides, I win a free lunch tomorrow if NHC doesn't upgrade before 00Z tonight.

What kind of lunch? Luby's? LOL

[Ikester]

I am a touch worried for C texas. They have already had alot of rain, and now they are gonna have more. WOW> Poor texas...everything's always bigger in Texas. i guess that goes for Floods too.

You can say that again! Here's pics from Allison...



BTW, the below pic is 59, southwest frwy near Greenway Plaza. The water here would easily be 20' deep. It is a sunken freeway--literally.