SE TX/SW LA weather: Much cooler and WET after Tuesday

[vbhoutex]

Just picked up a quick 0.40" in 10 min.!! I hope the rest of the storms today aren't like this one!!

Radar is beginning to light up and fill in with some training already setting up. Houston area members please be aware and above all be safe!! It won't take much to cause more flooding today.

[jasons2k]

I got .23 yesterday. At least I get a break from watering

[Flyinman]

Well, total, I received just over a little over 3.5" in the past seveal days. Now the countdown to mosquitoes begins. Any freezes on the horizon?

[vbhoutex]

Well, total, I received just over a little over 3.5" in the past seveal days. Now the countdown to mosquitoes begins. Any freezes on the horizon?

I wish!! Unfortunately there isn't any need to change the thread topic with the mess we have going on down in the tropics. Like srainhoutx stated in another thread we could get wet all over again by midweek. Watching 96L closely!

[southerngale]

Freezes? lol

No snowmen anytime soon. I did make another humidity man though.


Rain, rain, and more rain. We got a brief break on Monday, it appears.

Portion of the NWS LCH overnight discussion... they talk about 95L, 96L and our high rain chances for the rest of this week:


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
318 AM CDT TUE JUL 6 2010

.DISCUSSION...

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOVING IN FROM THE SOUTH AND EAST
THANKS TO A SMALL AREA OF LOW PRESSURE VERY NICELY SEEN ON THE LCH
RADAR THIS MORNING OVER THE ROCKEFELLER WILDLIFE REFUGE. THIS LOW
WILL CAUSE SOME BREEZY CONDITIONS THIS MORNING WITH WINDS AROUND 20
TO 25 MPH TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER. MOST OF THE SHOWERS AND
STORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW ARE TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER AND
SPREADING INLAND TOWARDS THE NORTHWEST. RAIN WILL BE LIKELY OVER
THE EASTERN CWA TODAY AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE. SOME
AREAS COULD SEE 1 TO 2 INCHES WITH ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS
ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST. THIS IS JUST THE BEGINNING OF A SURGE OF
TROPICAL MOISTURE THAT WILL BE SPREADING OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK.

THE NEXT ITEM TO BE WATCHING IS THE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER NEAR
THE YUCATAN THIS MORNING. WHILE THIS SYSTEM IS DISORGANIZED AT THE
PRESENT TIME...NHC DOES HAVE THIS AREA UNDER A MEDIUM CHANCE OR 30
PERCENT OF BECOMING A TROPICAL DEPRESSION WITHIN THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
MODELS ARE NOT CONSISTENT IF THIS SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP OR NOT BUT
THE GENERAL FORECAST IS CALLING FOR THIS SYSTEM TO MOVE TO THE
NORTHWEST TOWARDS TEXAS. REGARDLESS IF IT DEVELOPS OR NOT...THIS
WILL BRING MORE DEEP MOISTURE OVER THE REGION FOR THE REST OF THE
WEEK. RAIN CHANCES WILL BE HIGH THROUGH FRIDAY WITH LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL POSSIBLE. THIS SYSTEM APPEARS TO MOVE INLAND OVER TEXAS
ON THURSDAY. RESIDENTS ALONG THE GULF COAST WILL NEED TO MONITOR
THIS SYSTEM FOR ANY CHANGES OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

[srainhoutx]

HGX thoughts concerning heavy rainfall potential and the remnants of 95L...

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1025 AM CDT TUE JUL 6 2010

.DISCUSSION...
LATE THIS MORNING AT 15Z THE MAJORITY OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY WAS
CONFINED TO BANDS IN THE COASTAL WATERS. ISOLATED ACTIVITY WAS
OCCURRING OVER THE COASTAL SECTIONS OF MATAGORDA COUNTY. THE
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WAS LOCATED OVER SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA AND
WAS DRIFTING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD. THERE WAS SOME SUBSIDENCE ALOFT
OVER SE TX THIS MORNING DUE TO THE LOCATION OF THE SURFACE LOW
OVER LA AND AN UPPER LOW OVER THE WESTERN GULF OFF THE COAST OF
CRP AND BRO.

THE MAIN CONCERN FOR TODAY IS THE RAINFALL POTENTIAL. THE 12Z LCH
SOUNDING HAD A PW OF 2.4 INCHES...AND THE MODELS ARE CONSISTENT
IN BRINGING THIS MOIST AIR MASS WESTWARD INTO MOST OF THE FORECAST
AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. GIVEN THE FACT THAT THE LA SYSTEM
IS AT LEAST SEMI-TROPICAL...WOULD EXPECT THE RAINFALL PATTERN TO
SPREAD OUT IN A BANDING PATTERN DURING AFTERNOON INTO SE TX. THAT
WOULD MEAN THAT LATER TONIGHT AS THE LOW CENTER DRIFTS INTO E AND
SE TX...THE RAINFALL PATTERN WILL CONCENTRATE MORE TOWARD THE CORE
OF THE SYSTEM. WILL UPDATE THE FORECAST FOR THIS AFTERNOON TO
ACCOUNT FOR SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES OVER THE EASTERN
COUNTIES BEFORE THE CLOUD COVER SETS IN. DO NOT EXPECT HEAVY
RAINFALL THIS AFTERNOON...BUT THERE IS A POTENTIAL BEGINNING
TONIGHT. WILL REASSESS THE HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL FOR TONIGHT
THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY IN THE AFTERNOON FORECAST PACKAGE.

[srainhoutx]

From the SPC in latest update...

...LA/EAST TX...
A WELL-DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION HAS MOVED ASHORE OVER SOUTHERN
LA...AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE SLOWLY NWWD THROUGH THE DAY. A NARROW
BAND OF STRONGER LOW LEVEL WINDS ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE LOW IS
LOCALLY ENHANCING VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES AND MAY RESULT IN AN
ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT TODAY.

[srainhoutx]

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
COASTAL HAZARD MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
353 PM CDT TUE JUL 6 2010

...COASTAL FLOOD WATCH FOR GALVESTON AND BRAZORIA COUNTIES WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AND THURSDAY...

.ELEVATED TIDES ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE MOVING TOWARD THE TEXAS COAST
MAY PRODUCE A COASTAL FLOOD THREAT FOR PORTIONS OF THE UPPER TEXAS
COAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.

TXZ214-238-071200-
/O.NEW.KHGX.CF.A.0003.100708T0000Z-100709T0000Z/
CHAMBERS-GALVESTON-
353 PM CDT TUE JUL 6 2010

...COASTAL FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY
EVENING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN HOUSTON/GALVESTON HAS ISSUED A
COASTAL FLOOD WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING
THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING.

TIDES ARE CURRENTLY RUNNING 1.5 FEET ABOVE NORMAL. EXPECT LEVELS TO
INCREASE ANOTHER 1/2 TO 1 FOOT WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS MODERATE TO
STRONG SOUTHEAST WINDS AND SEAS INCREASE. AFTER ADDING THE
ASTRONOMICAL HIGH TIDE OF AROUND 2 FEET TO THIS...IT WILL PRODUCE
A TOTAL TIDE AROUND 4 FEET WHICH WILL PRODUCE COASTAL FLOODING AT
THE USUAL LOWEST SUSCEPTIBLE SPOTS. WAVE RUN UP WILL ALSO
CONTRIBUTE TO HIGHER LEVELS. THE CURRENT THINKING IS THAT THE
BOLIVAR PENINSULA WILL BE MOST AT RISK OF COASTAL FLOOD PROBLEMS.
HOWEVER...FUTURE SHIFTS MAY EXPAND THE WATCH TO BRAZORIA COUNTY IF
LEVELS LOOK LIKE THEY WILL GET ANY HIGHER.

NOTE...HIGH TIDE LEVELS ARE REFERENCED FROM MEAN LOWER LOW WATER.

LOCATION TIDE TIMES EXPECTED
WATER LEVEL
ROLLOVER PASS...
WED 10:50 PM 1.9 FEET
THU 8:59 AM 3.4 FEET

EAGLE POINT...
WED 10:25 PM 1.6 FEET
THU 10:41 AM 3.1 FEET

GALVESTON CHANNEL (PIER 21)...
WED 7:38 PM 1.6 FEET
THU 4:50 AM 3.4 FEET

GALVESTON PLEASURE PIER...
WED 6:31 PM 1.5 FEET
THU 3:14 AM 4.1 FEET

[JenBayles]

What is UP with this weather this evening? We've been getting pounded and the dogs are going crazy with all the thunder. All I can see is an active seabreeze and individual storms throwing off more boundaries which keep creating more storms, and so on. Is that right? It can stop already!

[srainhoutx]

HGX suggesting a rather interesting 48 hours ahead...

FLOOD WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
444 AM CDT WED JUL 7 2010

TXZ163-164-176>179-195>200-210>214-226-227-235>238-072100-
/O.NEW.KHGX.FF.A.0004.100708T0000Z-100709T0000Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
AUSTIN-BRAZORIA-BRAZOS-BURLESON-CHAMBERS-COLORADO-FORT BEND-
GALVESTON-GRIMES-HARRIS-HOUSTON-JACKSON-LIBERTY-MADISON-MATAGORDA-
MONTGOMERY-POLK-SAN JACINTO-TRINITY-WALKER-WALLER-WASHINGTON-
WHARTON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ALVIN...ANAHUAC...ANGLETON...BAY CITY...
BELLVILLE...BRENHAM...BROOKSHIRE...BRYAN...CALDWELL...CLEVELAND...
COLDSPRING...COLLEGE STATION...COLUMBUS...CONROE...CORRIGAN...
CROCKETT...DAYTON...EAGLE LAKE...EDNA...EL CAMPO...FREEPORT...
FRIENDSWOOD...GALVESTON...GROVETON...HEMPSTEAD...HOUSTON...
HUMBLE...HUNTSVILLE...KATY...LAKE JACKSON...LAKE SOMERVILLE...
LEAGUE CITY...LIBERTY...LIVINGSTON...MADISONVILLE...
MISSOURI CITY...MONT BELVIEU...NAVASOTA...ONALASKA...PALACIOS...
PASADENA...PEARLAND...PIERCE...PRAIRIE VIEW...RICHMOND...
ROSENBERG...SEALY...SHEPHERD...SUGAR LAND...TEXAS CITY...
THE WOODLANDS...TOMBALL...TRINITY...WEIMAR...WHARTON...WILLIS...
WINNIE
444 AM CDT WED JUL 7 2010

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY
EVENING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN HOUSTON/GALVESTON HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR A PORTION OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS...INCLUDING
THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...AUSTIN...BRAZORIA...BRAZOS...
BURLESON...CHAMBERS...COLORADO...FORT BEND...GALVESTON...
GRIMES...HARRIS...HOUSTON...JACKSON...LIBERTY...MADISON...
MATAGORDA...MONTGOMERY...POLK...SAN JACINTO...TRINITY...
WALKER...WALLER...WASHINGTON AND WHARTON.

* FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING

* DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA AS A TROPICAL
DISTURBANCE MOVES INTO THE WESTERN GULF WATERS. EVEN IF THE
DISTURBANCE DOES NOT DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION OR
TROPICAL STORM...PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS CAN EXPECT
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT WILL BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL...ESPECIALLY
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. SOME THUNDERSTORMS MAY TRAIN
OR MOVE OVER THE SAME AREAS LEADING TO HIGH RAIN RATES OVER A
SHORT PERIOD OF TIME. RAINFALL TOTALS FOR THE EVENT ARE EXPECTED
TO AVERAGE 3 TO 5 INCHES WITH EVEN HIGHER AMOUNTS
POSSIBLE....WHICH COULD LEAD TO FLOODING ESPECIALLY IN AREAS
THAT HAVE ALREADY RECIEVED SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL OVER THE PAST
WEEK.

[srainhoutx]

SPC:

...EAST TX...
ALL MODELS AGREE ON MOVING LARGER-SCALE TROPICAL CIRCULATION INTO
SOUTH/SOUTHEAST TX LATER TODAY. RELATIVELY STRONG LOW/MID LEVEL
WINDS ON THE EAST SIDE OF THIS SYSTEM WILL ENHANCE VERTICAL SHEAR
AND POTENTIALLY LEAD TO A LOCALIZED BRIEF TORNADO THREAT.

[JenBayles]

Does anyone have news from Jeff this morning? I'd like to know his thoughts on this system. Not that I think he'll have any better news - I just enjoy his thought process. It's not as obscure as the NWS tends to be. Off to dig out my snorkeling gear...

[srainhoutx]

Jeff is on vacation until mid July I believe Jen.

[JenBayles]

Thanks for the update srain. I'm not impressed with the forecast - or radar returns right now. Our nemesis, Langham Creek, is still running high with runoff from Friday. It won't take much to send it out of bank again. At least we still have the important things put up already. We've done everything we can, so now it's another wait and see game. Don't foresee much sleep tonight.

[srainhoutx]

FLASH FLOOD WARNING
TXC199-245-072200-
/O.NEW.KLCH.FF.W.0008.100707T1608Z-100707T2200Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
FLASH FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1108 AM CDT WED JUL 7 2010

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LAKE CHARLES HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR...
SOUTHEASTERN HARDIN COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITY OF LUMBERTON...
NORTH CENTRAL JEFFERSON COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITY OF BEAUMONT...

* UNTIL 500 PM CDT

* AT 1055 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED
VERY HEAVY RAINS LOCATED OVER BEAUMONT EXTENDING NORTH INTO
LUMBERTON. RADAR ESTIMATES AND GAUGE REPORTS INDICATE 3 TO 5
INCHES OF RAIN HAS FALLEN THIS MORNING IN AND AROUND BEAUMONT IN
THE PAST FEW HOURS. ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ARE
EXPECTED INTO THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL PRODUCE ADDITIONAL FLOODING.



* SOME DRAINAGES THAT WILL BE PRONE TO FLOODING FROM THIS RAINFALL
ARE...WILLOW MARSH BAYOU. IN ADDITION STREETS IN NORTHERN BEAUMONT
WILL LIKELY BECOME IMPASSABLE FOR A TIME.

[srainhoutx]

FLOOD ADVISORY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1121 AM CDT WED JUL 7 2010

TXC167-201-071815-
/O.NEW.KHGX.FA.Y.0053.100707T1621Z-100707T1815Z/
/00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
HARRIS TX-GALVESTON TX-
1121 AM CDT WED JUL 7 2010

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LEAGUE CITY HAS ISSUED AN

* URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY FOR...
NORTHERN GALVESTON COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...
SOUTHEASTERN HARRIS COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...

* UNTIL 115 PM CDT

* AT 1118 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
AN AREA OF VERY HEAVY RAIN FALLING ACROSS NORTHERN GALVESTON COUNTY.
RAINFALL RATES UP TO 2.5 INCHES PER HOUR HAVE BEEN OBSERVED. WITH
THE GROUND STILL MOIST FROM LAST WEEKS RAINS...SOME OF THIS WATER
WILL RUN OFF TO PRODUCE MINOR STREET AND FEEDER ROAD FLOODING. THIS
PRECIPITATION WILL BE MOVING INTO SOUTHERN HARRIS COUNTY.

[southerngale]

Thunderstorms all morning here.... with those loud jump out of your skin thunder boomers.

My weather alerts went off a few minutes ago... Flash Flood Warning.

Flash Flood Warning

FLASH FLOOD WARNING
TXC199-245-072200-
/O.NEW.KLCH.FF.W.0008.100707T1608Z-100707T2200Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
FLASH FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1108 AM CDT WED JUL 7 2010

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LAKE CHARLES HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR...
SOUTHEASTERN HARDIN COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITY OF LUMBERTON...
NORTH CENTRAL JEFFERSON COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITY OF BEAUMONT...

* UNTIL 500 PM CDT

* AT 1055 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED
VERY HEAVY RAINS LOCATED OVER BEAUMONT EXTENDING NORTH INTO
LUMBERTON. RADAR ESTIMATES AND GAUGE REPORTS INDICATE 3 TO 5
INCHES OF RAIN HAS FALLEN THIS MORNING IN AND AROUND BEAUMONT IN
THE PAST FEW HOURS. ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ARE
EXPECTED INTO THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL PRODUCE ADDITIONAL FLOODING.



* SOME DRAINAGES THAT WILL BE PRONE TO FLOODING FROM THIS RAINFALL
ARE...WILLOW MARSH BAYOU. IN ADDITION STREETS IN NORTHERN BEAUMONT
WILL LIKELY BECOME IMPASSABLE FOR A TIME.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FLASH FLOOD WARNING MEANS THAT FLOODING IS IMMINENT OR OCCURRING.
IF YOU ARE IN THE WARNING AREA MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND IMMEDIATELY.
RESIDENTS LIVING ALONG STREAMS AND CREEKS SHOULD TAKE IMMEDIATE
PRECAUTIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY. DO NOT ATTEMPT TO CROSS
SWIFTLY FLOWING WATERS OR WATERS OF UNKNOWN DEPTH BY FOOT OR BY
AUTOMOBILE.

&&

PLEASE REPORT SEVERE WEATHER TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AT
337-477-5285 EXTENSION 1.

LAT...LON 3033 9440 3033 9418 3015 9411 3013 9411
3013 9410 3011 9409 3008 9409 3007 9407
2995 9402 2992 9423

$$

BRAZZELL

[JenBayles]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1227 PM CDT WED JUL 7 2010

.AVIATION...
DEJA VU ALL OVER AGAIN. DEEP TROPICAL AIRMASS AND ASSOCIATED WAVES
OF RAINFALL MOVING THRU THE REGION EXPECT THIS TO CONTINUE FOR THE
NEXT 36 HOURS. TOUGH TO IMPOSSIBLE TO PIN DOWN TIMING AS TO
SPECIFICS REGARDING TIMING/INTENSITY AT EACH INDIVIDUAL TAF SITE.
OVERALL...EXPECT THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL TO OCCUR OVERNIGHT AND
THURS AS INCREASED MOISTURE AND BETTER SURFACE CONVERGENCE/
BOUNDARY IN THE AREA. GENERALLY ADVERTISED MVFR/IFR CIGS AND LIGHT
RAIN AS PREVAILING ALONG WITH VCTS`S. THERE`S NO DOUBT THERE WILL
BE SEVERAL AMENDMENTS NECESSARY (MOST LIKELY FOR THE WORSE) ONCE
TIMING/CONFIDENCE IS SOMEWHAT BETTER BUT DIDN`T WANT TO GO WITH
24-36 HOURS WORTH OF TEMPOS. 47

&&

.DISCUSSION...
WENT AHEAD AND STARTED THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH TO BEGIN NOW INSTEAD
OF THIS EVENING CONSIDERING COVERAGE/INTENSITY OF PRECIP. STILL THINK
FLOOD ISSUES WILL BE MORE ISOLATED IN NATURE DURING THE DAY WITH
AN INCREASING THREAT OVERNIGHT AND THURS.

&&

.MARINE...
WATER LEVELS NOW RUNNING 2 FT ABOVE NORMAL. WILL LIKELY BE
UPGRADING COASTAL FLOOD WATCH TO EITHER AND ADVSY OR WARNING LATER
THIS AFTN AFTER TAKING A CLOSER LOOK AT THINGS. 47

[JenBayles]

Bear Creek area getting a good 2"/hour p*ss-down right now, and more on its heels according to radar. I'm not impressed. :-/ Anyone inside the Beltway getting ready to head home please be careful!

[Tireman4]

This could help as well. Houston Trans Star...


http://traffic.houstontranstar.org/layers/