ATL: TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO - DISCUSSION

[KWT]

I find it really hard to justify it not being a TD very soon, looks close if not already a system...

Interesting to see there is actually a slight drought issue in some part sof Texas, hopefully this moves east of track to give more rains up there in that case.

[HURAKAN]

Seems like 96L has the same issue as this glass of water!!

[wxman57]

I think someone may be blinded by a free lunch. I think it is a TD already.

Yeah, wxman57. Looks like your lunch will be crow.

You really think NHC will upgrade within the next 1hr 45 min? Not likely. The bet was by 7pm CDT tonight, not ever.

[masaji79]

Doesn't look like a TD yet, just a bunch of clouds in the Gulf.

[HURAKAN]

Doesn't look like a TD yet, just a bunch of clouds in the Gulf.

Alex was also a bunch of clouds, angry clouds!!

[KWT]

Probably will be another 4-6hrs before they upgrade, probably just want to make sure it isn't a quick burst then weaken again signal, but this does remind me of a proper developing system, note the convection still looks fairly decent even during the peak of day, usually a decent sign of a developing system.

[bvigal]

As has been stated many times by others, it bears repeating. Regardless of whether this disturbance is upgraded to TD/TS, the effects are going to be very heavy rainfall on areas that are very saturated from last weeks Alex. Coastal TX NWS offices are calling for a possible 5 inches +. Add to that the Coastal Flood threat. There are a lot of wary folks watching very carefully.

Can't stress this enough!! And a lot of the public might think it must be declared by NWS to be such a threat.

[KWT]

Doesn't look like a TD yet, just a bunch of clouds in the Gulf.

To be honest it does look like a TD to me, though I can understand why the NHC are holding back at the moment as well.

Probably has time to become a short lived TS Bonnie I reckon.

[cycloneye]

Cloud tops warming some. The Alex cool track of water may be one factor for this to be occuring.

[ozonepete]

I think someone may be blinded by a free lunch. I think it is a TD already.

Yeah, wxman57. Looks like your lunch will be crow.

You really think NHC will upgrade within the next 1hr 45 min? Not likely. The bet was by 7pm CDT tonight, not ever.

In the next 1hour 45min? Not really, not if Recon doesn't get in there before then. And it looks like a close race. Since I hold you in such high regard, I hope you get your free lunch, but I'm willing to bet you've still got your fingers crossed tight the way this looks now.

[bvigal]

Seems like 96L has the same issue as this glass of water!!

Oh, this has to go down as a classic!!! LOL

[HURAKAN]

Latest

[HURAKAN]

7 hours ago

[wxman57]

One thing some here may be missing is that the weak swirl of low clouds is not under that convection, it's on the northwest side. See my image below where the crosshairs are. Granted, that low-level swirl is harder to see now so I used what I could see and an extrapolation from the 18Z position. And check the convective tops - warming, meaning convection is weakening. There's no banding evident and obs don't indicate much of an LLC. Buoy to the south has been very light all day, now has an ENE wind at a few kts. Looks like a trof axis, possibly with a small low-level swirl. Definitely not a well-defined LLC and organized convection. And it's not getting better organized in my opinion, it's less organized than earlier.

Regardless, I'm on standby to go into work at a moment's notice overnight in case the NHC upgrades. But that really won't make any difference to our clients as far as potential impact. It's a heavy rain event, that's all.

[ROCK]

Can someone give me an update on what we have moving ashore (HOU/ gal) in the next few hours?


In denver flying into hobby around 830..hate to be delayed..


Thanks guys..the ole BB won't access loops so I am missing all the fun...

[KWT]

I really can't see how it looks less organised now, the convective look is much better then it was earlier on and whilst cloud tops are warming, it is D-min and as others have said its over Alex's wake, I think thats to be expected. The real test is what happens in 6-12hrs time and whether D-max starts things back up again.

I think Hurakan image proves at least at mid levels this looks far better then it did 6-9hrs ago, its it enough to get upgraded, hmmm maybe, maybe not.

edit- and yeah it probably is a small LLC, there really is no way of knowing because this area looks quite limited in terms of data....but looking at the loops I think there is a strong case for at least a weak LLC to be made on the NW side of the convection...which to be honest really isn't an issue for it to be upgraded to a TD, I've seen many worse looking systems than this with very weak LLC's get upgraded...the type which have only had 4-6kts west winds.

[ozonepete]

One thing some here may be missing is that the weak swirl of low clouds is not under that convection, it's on the northwest side. See my image below where the crosshairs are. Granted, that low-level swirl is harder to see now so I used what I could see and an extrapolation from the 18Z position. And check the convective tops - warming, meaning convection is weakening. There's no banding evident and obs don't indicate much of an LLC. Buoy to the south has been very light all day, now has an ENE wind at a few kts. Looks like a trof axis, possibly with a small low-level swirl. Definitely not a well-defined LLC and organized convection. And it's not getting better organized in my opinion, it's less organized than earlier.

Regardless, I'm on standby to go into work at a moment's notice overnight in case the NHC upgrades. But that really won't make any difference to our clients as far as potential impact. It's a heavy rain event, that's all.

Yeah, all good points, except the warming of cloud tops is really minor and we are going into the nocturnal upkick. I think we can also safely say that banding is not necessary for a TD. Also there's a dearth of observations near where that LLC is, however poorly or well defined it is. We really have to wait for Recon. I still think you will and hope you will get your lunch.

[Houstonia]

Can someone give me an update on what we have moving ashore (HOU/ gal) in the next few hours?


In denver flying into hobby around 830..hate to be delayed..


Thanks guys..the ole BB won't access loops so I am missing all the fun...

Statement as of 5:39 PM CDT on July 07, 2010

The National Weather Service in League City has issued an

* Urban and Small Stream Flood Advisory for...
central Harris County in southeast Texas...

* until 645 PM CDT

* at 538 PM CDT... National Weather Service Doppler radar indicated
very heavy rain was falling in and around the city of Houston.

Flooded roadways have been reported in the Bellaire area and in The
Heights as of 530 PM CDT.

Precautionary/preparedness actions...

Excessive runoff from heavy rainfall may cause elevated water levels
on small creeks... streams... and bayous. Additionally... ponding of
water will occur on highways... streets... and underpasses as well as
other poor drainage areas and low lying areas.

A Flood Watch remains in effect through 7pm Thursday for the warned
area.


Please report flooding to the County sheriff... local police... or
department of public safety and ask them to relay your report to the
National Weather Service.

Lat... Lon 2965 9556 3010 9573 3010 9567 3011 9565
3014 9550 3011 9549 3011 9543 3009 9539
3007 9534 3003 9529 3005 9525 3012 9516
2974 9503

[JenBayles]

The NWS can call it whatever they want. It's already producing flooding downpours in Houston. Wave after wave keeps developing and washing over the area. Gonna be a long night for me since we flood easily.

[RachelAnna]

Can someone give me an update on what we have moving ashore (HOU/ gal) in the next few hours?


In denver flying into hobby around 830..hate to be delayed..


Thanks guys..the ole BB won't access loops so I am missing all the fun...

Statement as of 5:39 PM CDT on July 07, 2010

The National Weather Service in League City has issued an

* Urban and Small Stream Flood Advisory for...
central Harris County in southeast Texas...

* until 645 PM CDT

* at 538 PM CDT... National Weather Service Doppler radar indicated
very heavy rain was falling in and around the city of Houston.

Flooded roadways have been reported in the Bellaire area and in The
Heights as of 530 PM CDT.

Precautionary/preparedness actions...

Excessive runoff from heavy rainfall may cause elevated water levels
on small creeks... streams... and bayous. Additionally... ponding of
water will occur on highways... streets... and underpasses as well as
other poor drainage areas and low lying areas.

A Flood Watch remains in effect through 7pm Thursday for the warned
area.


Please report flooding to the County sheriff... local police... or
department of public safety and ask them to relay your report to the
National Weather Service.

Lat... Lon 2965 9556 3010 9573 3010 9567 3011 9565
3014 9550 3011 9549 3011 9543 3009 9539
3007 9534 3003 9529 3005 9525 3012 9516
2974 9503

And it is COMING DOWN out there!