ATL: TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO - DISCUSSION

[srainhoutx]

Perhaps a better place to discuss 'local weather conditions' would be here...

viewtopic.php?f=24&t=96890&start=4860

[Houstonia]

Perhaps a better place to discuss 'local weather conditions' would be here...

viewtopic.php?f=24&t=96890&start=4860

Sorry - was trying to answer Rock's question. Plus I thought that the flood warning was pertinent to 96L? Isn't it a part of that system?

anyway - my apologies.

[jasons2k]

Definitely not a well-defined LLC and organized convection. And it's not getting better organized in my opinion, it's less organized than earlier.

Alluding to an earlier post (definition of a TD), I think this pretty much sums it up for now.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

i dont see a TD. I see a drought buster though

[Nederlander]

92L - (definitely looked like a TD if not a TS)
95L - (looked like a TD)
96L - (ive seen worse get upgraded to TD status)

is anybody else seeing a pattern here? is the NHC going by different standards this year? does the oil spill have an impact on their decisions? I am just trying to get a feel for whats going on..

At any rate, despite warming cloud tops, it looks better now than it has in a couple of days.. I mean i know that the upgrade to TD status doesnt mean much as far as effects go, but it does have an effect on numbers at the end of the season..

[xcool22]

96L not getting better organized imo.

[HURAKAN]

92L - (definitely looked like a TD if not a TS)
95L - (looked like a TD)
96L - (ive seen worse get upgraded to TD status)

is anybody else seeing a pattern here? is the NHC going by different standards this year? does the oil spill have an impact on their decisions? I am just trying to get a feel for whats going on..

At any rate, despite warming cloud tops, it looks better now than it has in a couple of days.. I mean i know that the upgrade to TD status doesnt mean much as far as effects go, but it does have an effect on numbers at the end of the season..

The problem is that "looks" can be very deceiving. We need data to verify the "looks."

[Florida1118]

In my opinion, it is better organized. This morning it was more of a elongated wave. now, more of a mass.

[HURAKAN]

96L not getting better organized imo.

Very deceiving too. If you compare how this system looked yesterday to how it looks now, it definitely has become better organized. It's very likely to continue to organize as D-Max gets here and then it will runout of water!!!

[ozonepete]

Definitely not a well-defined LLC and organized convection. And it's not getting better organized in my opinion, it's less organized than earlier.

Alluding to an earlier post (definition of a TD), I think this pretty much sums it up for now.

If there is any LLC at all right now under that convection, only Recon can tell. There is no other way to see it right now except for scatterometer microwave satellite, and there are no good passes right now. So there's no way to say for sure that there's not a well-defined LLC.

[Cookie]

Perhaps a better place to discuss 'local weather conditions' would be here...

viewtopic.php?f=24&t=96890&start=4860

Sorry - was trying to answer Rock's question. Plus I thought that the flood warning was pertinent to 96L? Isn't it a part of that system?

anyway - my apologies.

I just thought the same thing

[Nederlander]

The problem is that "looks" can be very deceiving. We need data to verify the "looks."

Maybe I should have used a different word.. I am not referring to visuals such as JUST satellite imagery.. I am talking about data and Recon as well.. With 92L we really didnt have that luxury but even some promets on here said that it was most likely a TD or weak TS that one day..

[Ikester]

Okay, this post may be erased by mods, but what the heck is everybody's deal with an upgrade? This piece of crap isn't worthy of much more than a vigorous wave. If they name it, all it does is put a feather in the caps of those who make ridiculous claims for a cataclysmic season. Upgrade yes...WHEN IT IS NECESSARY! This is NOT going to be a major hurricane and advanced warning will be moot to most people. For all intensive purposes, the storm has hit....I'm sitting on the north side of Houston (The Woodlands) and every freeway in the city is jammed. Multiple streets are experiencing high water and there is even wind damage. So please, enough with the upgrade stuff. Rant over.

[Comanche]

Ok, One rum cocktail later and NO, it still looks like a mass of very disorganized convection that is in a waning process now. I'll even double down on the crow statement.

Good to see at least one pro-met on my side of the fence. (Don't go fence jumping wxman!!)

[Tireman4]

Okay, this post may be erased by mods, but what the heck is everybody's deal with an upgrade? This piece of crap isn't worthy of much more than a vigorous wave. If they name it, all it does is put a feather in the caps of those who make ridiculous claims for a cataclysmic season. Upgrade yes...WHEN IT IS NECESSARY! This is NOT going to be a major hurricane and advanced warning will be moot to most people. For all intensive purposes, the storm has hit....I'm sitting on the north side of Houston (The Woodlands) and every freeway in the city is jammed. Multiple streets are experiencing high water and there is even wind damage. So please, enough with the upgrade stuff. Rant over.

Oh my.

[Nederlander]

Okay, this post may be erased by mods, but what the heck is everybody's deal with an upgrade? This piece of crap isn't worthy of much more than a vigorous wave. If they name it, all it does is put a feather in the caps of those who make ridiculous claims for a cataclysmic season. Upgrade yes...WHEN IT IS NECESSARY! This is NOT going to be a major hurricane and advanced warning will be moot to most people. For all intensive purposes, the storm has hit....I'm sitting on the north side of Houston (The Woodlands) and every freeway in the city is jammed. Multiple streets are experiencing high water and there is even wind damage. So please, enough with the upgrade stuff. Rant over.

I dont think anybody is calling for an upgrade without evidence that it is worthy of an upgrade. But historically, the NHC has been somewhat inconsistent with their upgrading or naming of storms. And thats not opinion, thats fact. There was one system recently (may have been last year, im not sure) that was going fishing in the atlantic, that had all the signs of a named system, yet they left it alone.. i dont think just because its not going to have a major impact, that it should just be left alone.. anyways I dont mean to get OT here so I digress.. back to 96 L

[brunota2003]

There is now a local impact thread (thanks to the mod that stickyed it!)

viewtopic.php?f=59&t=108505

[AJC3]

Discussions of marginal systems tend to be some of the most contentious around here. Not gonna single anyone out, but just let me ask that we keep our disagreements civil, toward each other, and toward any proefessional met or met agency that may be thrown into the conversation. Thx.

[tailgater]

Just my guess before they nail down a center if there is one. 23.6N 92.7W

[ROCK]

Thanks for the update fellow Texans.


From what I can see from Hurakanks sat views. This is a TD IMO....and the poster brings up a good point. Oil spill related for no upgrade...I smell a rat...