ATL: TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO - DISCUSSION

[ozonepete]

Aric, that bouy is a hundred miles south of where the center may be.

yes it is but provides great data ...

It may not be working right - they bust all of the time as you know. There are also local vagaries of wind such as calmer areas between thunderstorm outflows. One bouy does not a series make...

[Air Force Met]

Not shocked I say...

Also...290 miles SE of the TX/Mexico border places it near 23N/94W...

Bad timing for me, as after working from 6am to 5pm looks like I'll have to head back to the office to work all night if they upgrade at 10.

And now we get down to the bottom of why you've been trying to kill it all day...

[lrak]

I understand now after reading 3 pages, wxman57 is downplaying the invest so he doesn't have to go to work tonight.

[Aric Dunn]

Aric, that bouy is a hundred miles south of where the center may be.

yes it is but provides great data ...

It may not be working right - they bust all of the time as you know. There are also local vagaries of wind such as calmer areas between thunderstorm outflows. One bouy does not a series make...

of course but the wind and pressure seems to be working just fine... either way pressure gradient is still pretty weak.. the NE quad will likely have higher winds of course.

[lrak]

Big joke wxman57 Im really tired right now too, I feel for you.

[xcool22]

wxman57 good lucky

[clfenwi]

Not shocked I say...

Also...290 miles SE of the TX/Mexico border places it near 23N/94W...

I wonder what data the plane is getting? Just flight level obs or are they dropping dropwindsondes? Radar? Perhaps an LLC is forming beneath what looks like an MLC in the convection? Bad timing for me, as after working from 6am to 5pm looks like I'll have to head back to the office to work all night if they upgrade at 10. At least model guidance header still said "Invest 96L".

They've dropped a bunch of dropsondes from the P-3. Lowest SLP recorded from one so far was 1006 mb at 22.7N 94.3W.

[sphelps8681]

Our local met here forcasted that possible TS tomorrow.

[jaxfladude]

Mex/Tex again!
Prayers for those again, hope nothing too serious happens.
Be safe y'all.


Other parts of the Atlantic Basin will have their share of threats, right? (just asking since the first two "systems" TD/'Cane in a row are threatening roughly the same area)

edit: I should have added -if Invest 96L is declared to be TD#2before landfall

errrrr

[Florida1118]

Mex/Tex again!
Prayers for those again, hope nothing too serious happens.
Be safe y'all.


Other parts of the Atlantic Basin will have their share of threats, right? (just asking since the first two "systems" TD/'Cane in a row are threatening roughly the same area)

Yes, they should. Alex/ possible Bonnie are not very far apart, so the steering pattern hasn't changed im guessing.

[Dean4Storms]

Looks like we are close to an official TD status. It has had that look most of the afternoon IMO.

[wxman57]

Well, model guidance header was Invest 96L. Maybe the next NHC outlook will be 0%?

[ozonepete]

Well, model guidance header was Invest 96L. Maybe the next NHC outlook will be 0%?

That's funny, but c'mon. Just because of the 0 to 60 to 0 the other day? We're all human...

[KWT]

They've dropped a bunch of dropsondes from the P-3. Lowest SLP recorded from one so far was 1006 mb at 22.7N 94.3W.

Ah that probably explains why they've put the center as low as 23N...probably means if it does develop it'll probably be very close to the border even if it does move more to the NW.

Yeah Florida1118 the steering patterns are quite close to Alex right now, but I do think we are seeing something of a trend for the season....west moving systems past 70-80W and possibly even further west then that as we've seen with Alex to some extent.

[Tireman4]

Our local met here forcasted that possible TS tomorrow.

Which local met? Houston?

[ozonepete]

BTW, this is still elongated SE to NW and it's really moving now. Will clearly make TS before landfall in south-central Texas (its forward speed has to be added to its inner circle winds on the NE quadrant and it's moving so fast) but I would really doubt it can make hurricane. It's just stretched too much on that axis and there is no sign that the steering winds will slow down before tomorrow night. i.e. it will never get its balance and become circular enough to let the winds spin up considerably.

[KWT]

Well, model guidance header was Invest 96L. Maybe the next NHC outlook will be 0%?

Haha classic stuff!

Probably will be upgraded next advisory unless the presentation weakens a little again but we shall see.

[sphelps8681]

Our local met here forcasted that possible TS tomorrow.

Which local met? Houston?

Beaumont.

[KWT]

ozonepete, I think its probably 50-50 as to whether it makes it to TS, depends on its forward speed really but if I had to err on one side, I'd say it will reach Bonnie...but I think its probably got pretty much 0% of becoming a hurricane mind you, even Humberto would be hard pressed to reach that strength with the time left...

[Ivanhater]

Tonight will be interesting to see if can burst convection around the LLC.