ATL: TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO - DISCUSSION

[Annie Oakley]

Where?

[Macrocane]

I am usually one of the last persons to discard development when a system looks good, I have been waiting for development from this system several days but looking at it now, I would say that its chances are decreasing unless convection re-fires near the center in the next few hours, let's see if the NHC upgrades it or not.

edit: I think my question was answered, they upgraded it, let's see if this is not a one only advisory system.

[Weatherfreak000]

No need to get hasty.


The NHC are professionals here. They knew it was going to re-fire overnight (Which is most probably going to happen), so they went ahead and did the Recon, found the LLC.


Sorry for your loss Wxman47, I hope to very soon with a degree feel the desire to downcast. lol.

[hockeytim19]

renumbered from AL96 to AL02... or TD #2

We have TD 2

NHC_ATCF
[b][size=150]invest_RENUMBER_al962010_al022010.renFSTDA
R
U
040
010
0000
201007080225
NONE
NOTIFY=ATRP
[/size][/b]
ftp://ftp.tpc.ncep.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/ ... 022010.ren

[Cainer]

So, TD 2, here we go! Looking pretty bad at the moment, but the circulation has become much more defined throughout the day and some more deep convention will probably start bursting as we get closer to DMAX, so I think it's a reasonable decision. I'm glad it doesn't have much of a chance to strengthen before landfall, the people of Northern Mexico and South Texas definitely do not need any more wind and rain.

[Evil Jeremy]

This is a sick system, but if the officials are calling it a TD, well, they are the pros for a reason. If this becomes anything more than a 40-45 MPH TS, I would be surprised. In fact, I think its more likely to stay a TD than upgrade. Its just not organized well convection wise, doesn't have a lot of time left over water, and the water it is over is cool from Alex.

[Buck]

Hey, plenty of us would complain if we had data that showed a LLC and high-enough winds and they didn't upgrade it... so there is no harm in them doing so.

[wxman57]

It still needs convection. No sign of an increase in convection. Tops still warming. Ship and buoy reports across the NW Gulf have decreased a good 10 kts in the past 6 hrs. Guess I'll head into the office vs. to bed.

[Nimbus]

The circulation has been there all day and the system was stacking earlier in the evening. Wonder what killed off the the convection more recently? Not that Texas needs any more rain.

[Weatherfreak000]

The circulation has been there all day and the system was stacking earlier in the evening. Wonder what killed off the the convection more recently? Not that Texas needs any more rain.

Nighttime waning of the convection. All marginal systems have blow offs. Remember what 95L looked like until RIGHT up until landfall? TD2 does that tonight easily and we'll have Bonnie.

[funster]

It's a TD. TDs always look like crap. By the time they start looking better they get upgraded to a TS. It is still at least a couple hundred miles from the coast and will probably hit some warmer water before it reaches the coast. Could easily become Bonnie.

[Comanche]

It still needs convection. No sign of an increase in convection. Tops still warming. Ship and buoy reports across the NW Gulf have decreased a good 10 kts in the past 6 hrs. Guess I'll head into the office vs. to bed.

You should hit the sack man, sleep good and wakeup to mass pessimism here, (rightfully so).

[ozonepete]

I've been saying all along I thought it would make TS but not hurricane, because that's what its current and future environmental conditions seemed to indicate, as long as it disconnected from that strong SE to NW flow around the western edge of the STR, which it seems to be doing.

[Ptarmigan]

I see we have a new tropical depression. Nothing from NHC yet.

[tolakram]

There has been at least one case where an invest was renumbered but then the renumber canceled. Looks like Avila is taking the night off?

If it's official I expect it will be posted at 11pm.

[cycloneye]

There has been at least one case where an invest was renumbered but then the renumber canceled. Looks like Avila is taking the night off?

Good question. Maybe,the forecasters are debating if they upgrade or not.

[ozonepete]

It still needs convection. No sign of an increase in convection. Tops still warming. Ship and buoy reports across the NW Gulf have decreased a good 10 kts in the past 6 hrs. Guess I'll head into the office vs. to bed.

The ship and buoy obs have decreased because the energy is consolidating inward around the center.

[wxman57]

It still needs convection. No sign of an increase in convection. Tops still warming. Ship and buoy reports across the NW Gulf have decreased a good 10 kts in the past 6 hrs. Guess I'll head into the office vs. to bed.

You should hit the sack man, sleep good and wakeup to mass pessimism here, (rightfully so).

Can't do that, someone has to be at the office all night if it's upgraded, and I'm the only one available tonight. I can stay up 24+ hours, though I'd rather do it for a real storm.

[vacanechaser]

There has been at least one case where an invest was renumbered but then the renumber canceled. Looks like Avila is taking the night off?

Good question. Maybe,the forecasters are debating if they upgrade or not.

starting to think the same.... or maybe they are just thinking it should wait... since it looks like it does...




Jesse V. Bass III
http://www.vastormphoto.com
Hurricane Intercept Research Team

[ConvergenceZone]

wxman57 , why would you have to go to work if you worked all day? Don't they have other shifts? Besides, if you had to go to work, how would you even keep your eyes open if you are normally sleeping? yikes!

I wouldn't think you'd be very productive. I'm just shocked they would call you in for a depression...Still, I don't see how you could work all day and then have to work all night. I thought they had laws to protect you against that.