ATL : TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO - RECON DISCUSSION

[brunota2003]

Didn't they cancel that flight? Or did they add notes to the notes?

[cycloneye]

Didn't they cancel that flight? Or did they add notes to the notes?

You are correct.This is the next one for tommorow afternoon.

FLIGHT TWO - TEAL 71
A. 08/1800,2100, 09/0000Z
B. AFXXX 0202A CYCLONE
C. 08/1530Z
D. 26.0N 97.0W
E. 08/1730Z TO 09/0000Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

[brunota2003]

They have the plane getting there at 2 pm...and this thing is supposed to make landfall before 7 pm.

[Chris_in_Tampa]

I think they made a mistake in the remarks about 08/1200Z being canceled. They copied over the previous day and added that accidentally I think. Otherwise, they should not have canceled the mission in the remarks and listed it in the requirements in the same Plan of the Day.

So the final takeoffs I think are:

NOAA P3 research mission leaves at 3AM CDT
Tasked air force recon takes off at 4:45AM CDT and then again at 10:30AM CDT

[clfenwi]

We'll find out for sure in ~6 hours, of course, but I concur with Chris_in_Tampa. My interpretation is that the cancellation in the remarks scratched the mission scheduled to launch at 0330Z. The mission in the POD with 0945Z launch time, coincidentally with a 12Z fix time, would be a go.

[cycloneye]

Thanks to both Chris and clfenwi for clarifying all about the next mission.

[clfenwi]

Going back through the dropsondes from the research mission this evening, I'm presuming this is the one referred to in the discussion:

Ob sent at 0033Z, position 24.6N 92.6W. SLP 1008 mb. 27 knot surface wind from 155°.

UZNT13 KWBC 080033
XXAA 58007 99246 70926 08242 99008 26421 15527 00070 25816 14528
92754 21201 15530 85486 18614 15531 70134 10826 15027 88999 77999
31313 09608 80008
51515 10167 06664
61616 NOAA2 WXWXA AL96C OB 20
62626 REL 2461N09256W 000844 SPG 2465N09258W 001428 WL150 15028 0
85 DLM WND 15528 007640 MBL WND 15529=
XXBB 58008 99246 70926 08242 00008 26421 11994 25017 22991 24808
33894 20000 44799 16032 55770 14005 66673 09232 77656 094// 88640
08450
21212 00008 15527 11002 14026 22997 15030 33944 16028 44909 16033
55754 14523 66716 16026 77640 13529
31313 09608 80008
51515 10167 06664
61616 NOAA2 WXWXA AL96C OB 20
62626 REL 2461N09256W 000844 SPG 2465N09258W 001428 WL150 15028 0
85 DLM WND 15528 007640 MBL WND 15529=

[KWT]

Looks like recon is on its way into TD2, I wouldn't be all that surprised if the system has weakened since the upgrade.

[cycloneye]

clfenwi, AF303 has the identification as invest.

AF303 0102A INVEST

[KWT]

Possibly it hasn't been updated yet, or who knows maybe the NHC were thinking of pulling the plug?

[JonathanBelles]

the invest tag may have been put there during the planning stages before the NHC declared it a TD.

[pepeavilenho]

At what time will the plane arrive at the Depression....

[clfenwi]

It's at the edge of the depression now... if there's a center to fly straight to, the plane should be there within a half-hour.

[KWT]

the invest tag may have been put there during the planning stages before the NHC declared it a TD.

That would make sense to be honest, esp given when it was upgraded and everything.

Will be interesting to see if recon can close off a circulation, the latest convective burst may help it though.

[tailgater]

36 KNOTS FL winds out of the SE

[cycloneye]

Lowest pressure so far 1007.2.

[KWT]

Got winds at 30kts at the surface now so at least that justifies 30kts at the moment.

[cycloneye]

1006.9 the lowest pressure - 41kts Flight Level.

[KWT]

41kts probably is very close to supporting an upgrade if they find a closed circulation...

[Thunder44]

SMFR also had 33kts. Almost TS strength.