ATL : TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO - RECON DISCUSSION

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KWT
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#61 Postby KWT » Thu Jul 08, 2010 6:53 am

Yeah if we find a closed low they may well take a punt and go to 35kts with this and become Bonnie...
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Re: ATL : TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO - RECON DISCUSSION

#62 Postby cycloneye » Thu Jul 08, 2010 6:54 am

If not Bonnie already,is very close.

42kts FL - 34kts SMFR
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#63 Postby x-y-no » Thu Jul 08, 2010 6:55 am

Wow ... did they really mean to descend all the way to 264 meters there, or did the overshoot on the descent?
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#64 Postby cycloneye » Thu Jul 08, 2010 6:56 am

x-y-no wrote:Wow ... did they really mean to descend all the way to 264 meters there, or did the overshoot on the descent?


Jan,they may be way down to see if there is a closed circulation.
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#65 Postby JonathanBelles » Thu Jul 08, 2010 6:58 am

they went all the way down to 869 feet, which gave me quite a shock. I'm surprised they went that low.
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Re: ATL : TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO - RECON DISCUSSION

#66 Postby cycloneye » Thu Jul 08, 2010 7:11 am

I have to go now so anyone can continue to post the obs.
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#67 Postby JonathanBelles » Thu Jul 08, 2010 7:29 am

Looks like a small disagreement on board. Plane did a loop like they were going north, then turned around and continued further SW.
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Re: ATL : TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO - RECON DISCUSSION

#68 Postby KWT » Thu Jul 08, 2010 7:29 am

cycloneye wrote:If not Bonnie already,is very close.

42kts FL - 34kts SMFR


Well the winds do suggest Bonnie but do we find an LLC or not...its a tough call for the NHC based on the reports from recon.
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Re: ATL : TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO - RECON DISCUSSION

#69 Postby tailgater » Thu Jul 08, 2010 7:41 am

Image
Just what I think about where a possible LLC could be?
Watch the radar.
http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?prod ... O&loop=yes
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#70 Postby JonathanBelles » Thu Jul 08, 2010 8:04 am

I haven't seen a west wind yet.
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#71 Postby JonathanBelles » Thu Jul 08, 2010 8:57 am

44kt SFMR + 42kt FL = 44.6 mph surface.

Northwest wind. Still no llc yet.
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#72 Postby KWT » Thu Jul 08, 2010 9:00 am

Quite impressive winds really considering the fact the convection isn't that deep and is fairly new as well...whilst there is 44kts at the surface I'd suspect generally things suggest 40kts.
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Re: ATL : TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO - RECON DISCUSSION

#73 Postby clfenwi » Thu Jul 08, 2010 10:20 am

Flying pretty low right now; under 500 feet; maybe trying to reconcile the gap between flight level winds and the peak SFMR readings.
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#74 Postby KWT » Thu Jul 08, 2010 10:22 am

It'd be interesting to see whether they do find higher FL winds but I have my doubts to be honest, I think at least some of those higher wind estimates were errors because of the coast.
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Re: ATL : TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO - RECON DISCUSSION

#75 Postby clfenwi » Thu Jul 08, 2010 10:25 am

Well, they were flying low. Homeward bound now. There's an ob set missing for the 1500-1510z timeframe.
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#76 Postby KWT » Thu Jul 08, 2010 10:26 am

Found 40kts at FL, though I'm not sure what that would translate to though at the level they are flying at?
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