T wave approaching the Windward Islands

[tailgater]

A flare up near 12N 56W. Not much vorticity or upper divergence or model support for this one but it bears watching in that it will be sheared just enough to keep it flaring up, off and on till it gets into a more favorable environment in 3 or 4 days.



5 days

[Comanche]

This one seems to be the only area worth watching that we can see at this moment.

[TreasureIslandFLGal]

That little area caught my eye as well when I saw it late last night on the local weathercast. It has been a condense little pocket of activity for quite a while now. Let's see if it can spin up once conditions become more favorable. The low pressures expected throughout the lower latitudes over the next week may assist, along with the lessening shear.

[srainhoutx]

I an a bit surprise that no one has mentioned the SW Caribbean as well...

[Comanche]

I an a bit surprise that no one has mentioned the SW Caribbean as well...

at the speed that is moving west, I imagine the lack of interest there is due to how far south it's located. I suppose there is a chance, but that is probably slim at best, going o run out of real estate soon.

[CourierPR]

[quote="srainhoutx"]I an a bit surprise that no one has mentioned the SW Caribbean as well...

Yes, that area is really firing this AM. Does it have a shot at developing?

[ColdFusion]

Seems like 3 interesting areas out there?

[Comanche]

I must ask, who is that avatar of yours cold?

[rockyman]

The Canadian shows all 3 of these areas moving into Central America over the next 5 days:

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.c ... =Animation

[poof121]

The Canadian shows all 3 of these areas moving into Central America over the next 5 days:

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.c ... =Animation

And develops it in the EPAC.

Actually it only develops the one farthest to the west.

[rockyman]

The GFS seems to take the area over the Windward, splits it, sending part of it toward Belize and the other part across Hispaniola through the Bahamas (the other two areas head into Central America):

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfstc2.c ... =Animation

[ROCK]

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... 8vor4.html


SW carib got some turning going on....not a lot of shear either....but like some of you said no model support....

[poof121]

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/atlantic/winds/wg8vor4.html


SW carib got some turning going on....not a lot of shear either....but like some of you said no model support....

CMC develops it in the EPAC.

[ROCK]

the wave around the Windwards is what the EURO is latching on too....sends energy into the BOC...hmmm...where have we seen that before...

[Macrocane]

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

IMO those tropical waves only bear watching because they can produce heavy rains in the Caribbean islands and later in Central America, the chances of development in the Atlantic basin are very low at this moment because wind shear conditions are only marginal for development and there is no model support, I think we may have to wait a couple of weeks more to see Bonnie.

[ConvergenceZone]

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/atlantic/winds/wg8vor4.html


SW carib got some turning going on....not a lot of shear either....but like some of you said no model support....

well, as a couple of mets and other told me when I asked the other day,
plenty of systems haved developed without having any model support. So I don't even look
at that anymore....

[abajan]

I haven’t had a lot of rain from this system at my location as yet but a flood watch has been issued for Barbados until 6:00 pm this evening local time and may be extended for a longer period if conditions warrant. According to our local meteorologists, conditions presently affecting the island are “associated with the interaction of a tropical wave and an upper-level trough.”

Read more...

[tailgater]

I haven’t had a lot of rain from this system at my location as yet but a flood watch has been issued for Barbados until 6:00 pm this evening local time and may be extended for a longer period if conditions warrant. According to our local meteorologists, conditions presently affecting the island are “associated with the interaction of a tropical wave and an upper-level trough.”

Read more...

Besides the rain you are gonna get, them swells of up to ten feet later next week have to make boating a little rough. Here that karl ten foot swells where you at.

[tailgater]

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/atlantic/winds/wg8vor4.html


SW carib got some turning going on....not a lot of shear either....but like some of you said no model support....

well, as a couple of mets and other told me when I asked the other day,
plenty of systems haved developed without having any model support. So I don't even look
at that anymore....

I believe yall are talking about the same wave.
viewtopic.php?f=31&t=108511

[tailgater]

Well the NAM tries to spin it up, but no real surprise there.
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml