Tropical Wave in the central caribbean

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TheEuropean
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Tropical Wave in the central caribbean

#1 Postby TheEuropean » Thu Jul 08, 2010 1:22 am

What's about this wave?

Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT THU JUL 08 2010

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM EASTER CUBA NEAR 21N77W SOUTHWARD
ACROSS TO THE COASTAL WATERS OF NORTH CENTRAL COLOMBIA NEAR
12N76W MOVING W AT 2-5 KT. THE WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN AN AREA
OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE EVIDENT ON TPW IMAGERY. MOST OF THE
ENERGY GENERATED BY IT CONTINUES TO BE TRANSFERRED TO AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW/TROUGH CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC...NORTH OF
THE DISCUSSION AREA. DESPITE THE CURRENT NATURE OF THE
WAVE....THIS SYSTEM IS PRODUCING SCATTERED MODERATE TO HEAVY
SHOWERS AND TSTMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN BETWEEN 71W AND
79W
.

May be the next system on the way to the western caribbean and GOM?

Bears watching?
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Re: Tropical Wave in the central caribbean

#2 Postby Portastorm » Thu Jul 08, 2010 6:48 am

Perhaps but I just took a look-see at the vorticity charts from 200mb on down to 850mb and there wasn't much. But the Caribbean so far this season has been the "birthplace of storms", right?! :lol:
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#3 Postby KWT » Thu Jul 08, 2010 6:51 am

Its got some decent convection flaring with it though and whenever you get that sort of thing occur you do need to watch out for possible development with such features.
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Re: Tropical Wave in the central caribbean

#4 Postby Portastorm » Thu Jul 08, 2010 6:59 am

Agreed. And isn't this also the setup from which we got TD #2 ... convection in the south central Caribbean?

I guess if we are indeed in an upward phase of the MJO pulse (until mid July, right?), it does indeed bear watching.
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#5 Postby rockyman » Thu Jul 08, 2010 10:54 am

The steering across the central and western Caribbean favors tracks into the southern Gulf or BOC (instead of crashing into Central America):

Image
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Re: Tropical Wave in the central caribbean

#6 Postby tailgater » Fri Jul 09, 2010 11:54 am

Vorticity up
Image
Good out flow and some inflow.
Image should be headed for Nicaragua.
Image
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Re: Tropical Wave in the central caribbean

#7 Postby TheBurn » Fri Jul 09, 2010 12:03 pm

Image
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#8 Postby Cyclone1 » Fri Jul 09, 2010 12:17 pm

Whoooa! Where did this thing come from? That's pretty impressive at first glance.
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#9 Postby HURAKAN » Fri Jul 09, 2010 12:32 pm

Unless it rapidly gains latitude, it's going to crash.
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#10 Postby HURAKAN » Fri Jul 09, 2010 12:45 pm

Nothing from the NHC
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#11 Postby HURAKAN » Fri Jul 09, 2010 12:52 pm

Image

Nothing to be concerned at the moment.
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#12 Postby KWT » Fri Jul 09, 2010 1:07 pm

Should be Invest 97L...but as Hurakan has said chances are probably small of development simply because it heads into the Central American coast.

This likely is going to become our next EPAC storm IMO....
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#13 Postby rockyman » Fri Jul 09, 2010 1:33 pm

Sitting under a small upper anticyclone...note the wispy clouds spreading out:

Image

The upper anticylone is shown here (peach colored circulation):
Image
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#14 Postby rockyman » Fri Jul 09, 2010 1:56 pm

This 5-day loop shows TD2's vorticity forming and "breaking off" from this same area in the SW Caribbean.

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic2/real ... 4java.html
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#15 Postby HURAKAN » Fri Jul 09, 2010 2:07 pm

Image

Looking good but land is close
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Re:

#16 Postby poof121 » Fri Jul 09, 2010 2:08 pm

HURAKAN wrote:
Looking good but land is close


Is it my imagination, or is it gaining latitude in that loop?
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What about this system? Caribean Sea, 09.07.10.

#17 Postby Pedro Fernández » Fri Jul 09, 2010 2:09 pm

I think it shows a nice cyclonic circulation, and it is under low shear values and a little anticyclone aloft...

Image

I'm not sure if there is somebody talking about that yet.

Thank you!
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Re: What about this system? Caribean Sea, 09.07.10.

#18 Postby poof121 » Fri Jul 09, 2010 2:11 pm

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Re: What about this system? Caribean Sea, 09.07.10.

#19 Postby Pedro Fernández » Fri Jul 09, 2010 2:13 pm

Oh... I was looking for that thread but I didn't find it... I'm sorry, mods :oops:
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#20 Postby HURAKAN » Fri Jul 09, 2010 2:16 pm

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