Global model runs discussion

[KWT]

Yeah the models do have a hint of something to the east of the Bahamas, even the ECM does hint at some sort of weak development trying to occur.

[pepeavilenho]

What's going on with the Canadian?



It became crazy long time ago, I know...

[Fego]

In the meantime, the GFS (12 and 18 UTC) shows a low traveling from Cabo Verde to the northeast Caribbean. Lets see if the next runs keep the tendency.

216 hrs:



384 hrs:

[cycloneye]

And also if other models join GFS later on.

[Fego]

:uarrow: And also if other models join GFS later on.

Like the EMCWF...

[blp]

I believe this might be the first time the GFS this year has good development from a Cape Verde wave. I think we will probably see a Cape Verde system towards the end of the month. It seems very plausible this year with all the positive factors that we would be at least a month ahead of schedule.

[rockyman]

Look at the strength of the high pressure over the Atlantic in 168 hours (GFS), and the lower pressures all the across the Atlantic and Caribbean south of 20N



Doesn't this look like an ideal setup for long-track Cape Verde storms?

The Canadian is showing this, too, except with higher pressures south of 20N:

[KWT]

Yeah that pressure profile is pretty impressive, the ECM also shows a similar set-up and indeed shunts the upper high further west with time towards the end of the run.

Quite a worrying set-up for the Gulf states and the east coast as well that is developing on those models.

[CourierPR]

Yeah that pressure profile is pretty impressive, the ECM also shows a similar set-up and indeed shunts the upper high further west with time towards the end of the run.

Quite a worrying set-up for the Gulf states and the east coast as well that is developing on those models.

Could it be that the mean season is about to gear up for real?

[gatorcane]

12Z GFS develops a Cape Verde system starting around 180 hours. This is the first run that has shown this:

[KWT]

Looks like it recurves it fairly early, though we all know the GFS does enjoy to turn things northwards too early.

[jlauderdal]

Looks like it recurves it fairly early, though we all know the GFS does enjoy to turn things northwards too early.

and develop systems that never make it to the batters box

[rockyman]

NOGAPS onboard with monster high:

[StormClouds63]

2007 set-up (e.g. Dean, Felix)?

[alan1961]

Yes interesting that the gfs developes signs of
a cape verde system the middle of next week but
as hurricanelonny's thread on the saharan air layer
points out this may very well call into the question
of impeding its development unless the dry air backs
of quickly. at the moment it seems as though its
steering the ITCZ below 10N for the time being.

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... split.html

[srainhoutx]

I suppose no one saw the 18Z para GFS...

[Ivanhater]

That muse be some kind of record if the first 3 storms were all in the BOC region

[srainhoutx]

Wash..rinse...repeat...

[ROCK]

276hr is a long time....I wish they would go ahead and trash the ops and start using the para only...

[KWT]

As I said in one of the other threads a monster high is the worst case in any set-up because if it doesn't weaken it'll slam CA, if it weakens any or lifts north like I'm real worried will happen will cause the threat zone to lift north.

Put it this way, if we start getting CV waves come off at 15N they probably will be a bigger threat to the Caribbean and US down the line...

ECM does develp a strong high only to weaken it again quite qucikly.