Strong wave near Leeward Islands - Is Invest 97L

[cycloneye]

Well peeps,let's see if this wave holds on or not but at least it looks fairly interesting.Windsat is interesting with part of it showing low level turning.

Updates every 15 minutes.





http://www.sat24.com/wa

[SFLcane]

Thats a pretty formidable tw there. Pretty significant sal intrusion just to its north.

[KWT]

Well it sure is an impressive wave thats true in terms of the wind direction shown there.

The only uncertainty I'd have is the SAL looks pretty potent, but if it can get itself a window then you never know further west, esp if it is a low rider.

[cycloneye]

According to the Saharan Air Layer graphic, the thickest is above 15N so if it can mantain as a low rider,maybe.

[Weatherfreak000]

I saw this early this morning, I feel personally so disappointed by July thus far. We are under a Positive MJO....the environment actually is fairly conducive....we just can't get the ITCZ significantly far enough North and all the energy is developing in the Central Caribbean.

Weird time in the tropics, needless to say. The CMC model doesn't even develop anything.

[KWT]

The problem is though whilst the SAL is to the north, once the system starts to try and wrap, if it does, then its going obviously drag down air from the SAL region and there can be no doubt that will cap the systems chances right from the off...I'd forget about development this side of America in the next 7-10 days...

These low riders will go from being a friend to a real enemy very soon I feel.

[Weatherfreak000]

I dunno about that KWT, I am keeping an eye open for this one. Although the waves have generally looked pretty nice. Convectively I would say only three waves in my memory have looked this good coming off Africa so far. Two became 92L and 93L (Alex) respectively, and this one now.

[ConvergenceZone]

I think if this wave looks as good tomorrow as it does today, then we'll be talking...

[ConvergenceZone]

I agree with you though WeatherFreak. I know it's only July, but since we are under a Positive MJO, why aren't we getting more development? We aren't always going to have a postivee MJO to work with.

This is why, while I think it will be an active year, I don't think it's going to be a hyper active year. I think if that was the case, we'd be seeing waves taking advantage of the positive MJO cyle we are now seeing. I know we still have a couple of weeks left until August, but it makes you wonder.

[cycloneye]

In only 30 hours,12z GFS has this. But is only one model as consensus is needed as we know.

[ConvergenceZone]

Good catch Luis. It will be interesting to see how this plays out.

[Weatherfreak000]

Interesting, it is as I said. This wave is in an organization class of it's own, and all its friends were invests.

[Weatherfreak000]

Recent image up, convection slightly on the wane but the turning is VERY evident. We have a nice wave here there is no question about it.

[cycloneye]

The latest.

[ConvergenceZone]

Based upon the way the Atlantic and Carib look right now, this wave might be our only hope for development for the next week or so.......

[KWT]

I still think it'll have little chance, sure the SAL is to the north but as I said it'll lift out a little and once it really tries to develop a circulation it really is going to start sucking that SAL laden air towards itself which is never a good thing.

That being said quite clearly its a good wave and thus down the line may well needed to be watched IMO...

Also as for the MJO...forget it this season, it'll only be able to give hints this year because we are in a developing La Nina's and in those sorts of years it doesn't really have much effect because everything becomes real stagnant...the last MJO wave really was very unimpressive. So whilst we are weakly in a positive phase, its not enough to really make much of a difference to things right now.

[HURAKAN]

I would wait another 24 hours before getting excited

[lester]

I saw this early this morning, I feel personally so disappointed by July thus far. We are under a Positive MJO....the environment actually is fairly conducive....we just can't get the ITCZ significantly far enough North and all the energy is developing in the Central Caribbean.

Weird time in the tropics, needless to say. The CMC model doesn't even develop anything.

Its july. Primetime hasn't even started yet. Be patient young grasshopper

[cycloneye]

In this composite,you can see the spin.

[OURAGAN]

Here is something to talk about: