WPAC : TROPICAL DEPRESSION CONSON

[HURAKAN]

Looks quite good

[dexterlabio]

I can see some convective banding going on northeast of the system. If shear remains favorable for cyclone development, the chance for its development within a day or two is very high. Oh well, it's wierd to be happy when a storm is developing, but I think I am just fascinated to see a system forming after a very long break.

[Macrocane]

Oh well, it's wierd to be happy when a storm is developing, but I think I am just fascinated to see a system forming after a very long break.

Actually is not that weird, especially here in storm2k that has some weather-freak members (myself included) that love tracking this systems.

[HURAKAN]

Latest

[Chacor]

Looking quite good. Just needs to break from the rest of that mass of cloud and be careful not to get into the TUTT which'll tear it apart.

[Infdidoll]

Oh well, it's wierd to be happy when a storm is developing, but I think I am just fascinated to see a system forming after a very long break.

Actually is not that weird, especially here in storm2k that has some weather-freak members (myself included) that love tracking this systems.

Yep, that would be me, too! I grew up in the Midwest where fear of tornadoes was with me from a very young age. After the adrenaline from fear wears off, a fascination develops and for some, extreme weather becomes a life-long obsession. Couple that with a really boring season in the West Pac, thus far, and any invest that has half a chance makes us weather freaks downright euphoric...until it becomes life-threatening, of course. We're just adrenaline junkies, not heartless.

That said, this invest seems to be thriving in late afternoon/evening and then disorganizing a bit during the morning hours. Wondering what it's going to look like later on today...Whether we get a typhoon out of this or not, it has still been interesting to watch.

[oaba09]

Ahhhh......This system actually has a chance of developing....high SST is doing this thing a favor....

[Typhoon10]

Agree with all of you, but would be great if it didnt hit the Phillippines, and instead came through the gap between Phil and Taiwan towards here in HK. Want to experience my 1st proper Typhoon.

[dexterlabio]

^Hmm. Whether it hits the Philippines or not, this potential system can affect the country via enhanced southwest monsoon. Just one moderate storm can activate the southwest winds which brings very wet condition especially in the western parts of the Philippines. Here, we can expect the "real" onset of the southwest monsoon, and normally the first surge of the "habagat" brings too much rains throughout the country, that is when a storm passes somewhere north of the Philippines thus enchancing the monsoon.

[Chacor]

We have a Tropical Cyclone Formation Alert.

WTPN21 PGTW 110600
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
160 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 12.9N 134.2E TO 14.8N 127.0E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 17 TO 22 KNOTS. METSAT IM-
AGERY AT 110532Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 13.2N 133.6E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 14
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 12.2N
135.6E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 13.2N 133.6E, APPROXIMATELY 350 NM NORTH
OF PALAU. RECENT ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A
110156Z TRMM MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOW IMPROVED CONSOLIDATION AND
MULTIPLE CONVECTIVE BANDS FLOWING INTO THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC). THE 110054Z ASCAT PASS ALSO REVEALS 20-KNOT WINDS ON
THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORMING LLCC. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES
THE SYSTEM IS IN AN AREA OF LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND CONTINUES TO
HAVE STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW INTO A WESTWARD-PUSHING TROPICAL UPPER
TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH (TUTT) CELL. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 17 TO 22 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS GOOD.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
120600Z.//

[Chacor]

JMA 00z:
LOW PRESSURE AREA 1012 HPA NEAR 13N 135E WEST 10 KT.

[Typhoon10]

Around this time of year, what track do systems usually take? I believe at this time its normally western towards Philippines rather than circling up towards Taiwan?

[P.K.]

Long time since we've seen one of these.

06Z:
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1010 HPA AT 13N 133E WNW 10 KT

[Typhoon10]

Long time since we've seen one of these.

06Z:
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1010 HPA AT 13N 133E WNW 10 KT

I know, I hope its develops further!

[dexterlabio]

Around this time of year, what track do systems usually take? I believe at this time its normally western towards Philippines rather than circling up towards Taiwan?

Supposedly, storms take up a northwesterly track toward Northern Luzon or Taiwan. This can be attributed to the southwesterly surface windflow present at these months. However, presence of high pressure areas, or subtropical ridge, can affect its track, let's say if a HPA is located north of a system, then the storm takes on a westward track (assuming that the storm formed in the Pacific).

Regarding this system, a TCFA from JTWC is now up.

WTPN21 PGTW 110600
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
160 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 12.9N 134.2E TO 14.8N 127.0E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 17 TO 22 KNOTS. METSAT IM-
AGERY AT 110532Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 13.2N 133.6E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 14
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 12.2N
135.6E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 13.2N 133.6E, APPROXIMATELY 350 NM NORTH
OF PALAU. RECENT ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A
110156Z TRMM MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOW IMPROVED CONSOLIDATION AND
MULTIPLE CONVECTIVE BANDS FLOWING INTO THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC). THE 110054Z ASCAT PASS ALSO REVEALS 20-KNOT WINDS ON
THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORMING LLCC. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES
THE SYSTEM IS IN AN AREA OF LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND CONTINUES TO
HAVE STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW INTO A WESTWARD-PUSHING TROPICAL UPPER
TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH (TUTT) CELL. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 17 TO 22 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS GOOD.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
120600Z.//
NNNN


(current image as of 5pm today, Manila time)

I checked on JMA's weather maps as of today, and I was a bit surprised that they expected this sytem to track further westwards rather than going more of a northward track.


(48 hour forecast chart)

[drdavisjr]

Hello everyone ... been a boring season up to now

[KWT]

Well we have a floater on this system now. Still looking pretty good with a slight adjustment in the deep convection to the NW, think it has a decent chance of being upgraded further but we shall see...

[dexterlabio]

^Well there is balancing going on. Last year has been so active, and this year I think will just be an average, or a below-average season. Haha. Just a prediction.

[KWT]

I think this season may not be too different from 1998, though I'd have to hope it'd be a little busier then that year but we shall see!

Its got fairly deep convection though nothing too extreme by WPAC standards.

[drdavisjr]

KWT, sorry for the ignorance. What is a floater?