About as quiet as can be

[HurricaneJoe22]

[Cookie]

A lot of people will be very happy about this and won't be complaing.

[KWT]

You can see the SAL layer really digging across the entire MDR one, so yeah we are going through a quieter spell right now but don't bet on it lasting for all that long, the tropics tend to flick on like a light.

[ConvergenceZone]

Wow, just looked at that SAL map again, that is intense. It might be until the middle of August until anything gets going... The middle of August through the end of September should be busier anyway.....

[Stephanie]

August and September are the peak months anyway.

[ConvergenceZone]

I agree Stephanie, although I am starting to think that this might be more of a slightly above normal year as opposed to really busy year.

I'm basing that off of the fact that the conditions are like they normally are this time of year, and I'm thinking that in August and September, they will be like they normally are as well....We'll see. As long as the shear remains low and we get rid of all that dry air/Sal, we should have a much busier August and September.


The interesting thing is, the Carib and Atlantic had more overall convection in June than in the month of July so far.

[KWT]

CZ and others who are thinking a slower start doesn't mean as much activity down the line...I'll quickly reel off a list of years, and then later I'll give you the one link that binds them altogether though I'm sure you'll know lol...all these years came in at least 20% above average in terms of the ACE btw...

1958: 121 ACE, 10/7/5
1967: 122 ACE, 8/6/1
1980: 147 ACE, 11/9/2 (all from now on are above 2008 in ACE...)
1969: 159 ACE, 18/11/5
1999: 177 ACE, 12/8/5
1998: 182 ACE, 14/10/3
1955: 199 ACE, 12/9/6
1961: 205 ACE, 11/8/7
2004: 225 ACE, 14/9/6
1950: 243 ACE, 13/11/8

Note how all but 3 of those years had over 5 major hurricanes, and all but 1999 had at least 1 category 5 hurricane as well...1999 just misses out but it had 2 hurricanes that were at 155mph...

So what links all those seasons then?....

[RL3AO]

*Checks calendar*

Nope. Its not August.

[hurricaneCW]

I think it should be a very active peak season or August and September. Remember it's only July 11th and yes the tropics flick on and off rapidly. I also think that October will act more like September this season and November like October which is why I think it will still be a very active season. July doesn't need massive activity for the season to be hyperactive. Just a storm or two is good enough. I think the end of July will feature Bonnie and maybe the C storm as well.

I'm looking for quality rather than quantity. We could have 20 weak tropical storms or a few weak fish cat 1 hurricanes yet it would be a relatively non existent season but if we have 12 storms and 8 or more of those are hurricane and major hurricanes, than that's an active season to me.

[ConvergenceZone]

Hey KWT,
You make a good point, but there were a few who thought that due to the absolute insane storm numbers being tossed around, that the entire season would be busy, not just the usual August and September months.

It is possible that August and September might be insane and frantic months, which is probably what would have to happen for JB's prediction to come true. Conditions are really going to have to start changing in the last 2 weeks of July for that to happen though.
October can brings storms, but obviously much less common as the number does drop off quite quickly once you hit the peak in September.....


We'll see if the last 2 weeks prime the pump for the busy August. Everything now is speculation, but I have a feeling that when August 15th comes in 4 weeks, we'll have a much better idea of the numbers based upon the conditions at that time.

[ConvergenceZone]

*Checks calendar*

Nope. Its not August.

Yep, the pressure is on August and September to be able to deliver those insane and crazy numbers we are expecting.

[Ivanhater]

I think we will see 2 more named storms before July is up, MJO and conditions just look too favorable

[KWT]

Hey KWT,
You make a good point, but there were a few who thought that due to the absolute insane storm numbers being tossed around, that the entire season would be busy, not just the usual August and September months.

It is possible that August and September might be insane and frantic months, which is probably what would have to happen for JB's prediction to come true. Conditions are really going to have to start changing in the last 2 weeks of July for that to happen though.
October can brings storms, but obviously much less common as the number does drop off quite quickly once you hit the peak in September.....

Yep, as I've said before I think above average start to the season (I think with Alex and TD2 we could arguably be already slightly above average even if we had nothing till the end of July...) but its going to be the meat of the season that explodes.

As for October, I personally wouldn't be at all surprised to see it get 3-5NS this year, we have exceptionally warm waters and La Nina tends to allow for some big Octobers...

Besides whilst things aren't so great now, before the ITCZ lifted northwards and the SAL got going things were decent.

Also finally, TD2 was probably rather close to being upgraded...95L was probably 6hrs away from being a TD/TS...and if they had both made it we'd right now have a good 3/2/1/0....and suddenly rather then people thinking it hasn't been that quick to start, people would still be comparing it to 2005 probably!

BTW...7 out of 12 hyperactive seasons had 0 or 1NS upto the 31st of July, over half of those big hitters...I really think thats all that needs to be said on that one.

ps, 16-18NS is still possible even if July gives nothing, if we get to say August 15th still at 1/1/0, then you could probably chuck away those numbers above 16NS...but thats a whole month away yet and we could easily get 3-4NS in that time before we know it!

[frederic79]

Although things seem to have come to a screeching halt, remember why such high numbers were forecast to begin with. Water temperatures are still crazy high for July and growing warmer. A survey of buoys around the eastern and central Gulf shows SST's ranging from the mid 80's to nearly 90 degrees. For July 11th, that's insane!
Also remember we are seeing a transition to La Nina conditions, widely expected to lower shear values in the entire Atlantic basin. With generally lower pressures being forecast, this is still shaping up to be a very active season. Like 2004, it may not really kick in til August. When it does, we will all have plenty to keep us occupied.

[ConvergenceZone]

Although things seem to have come to a screeching halt, remember why such high numbers were forecast to begin with. Water temperatures are still crazy high for July and growing warmer. A survey of buoys around the eastern and central Gulf shows SST's ranging from the mid 80's to nearly 90 degrees. For July 11th, that's insane!
Also remember we are seeing a transition to La Nina conditions, widely expected to lower shear values in the entire Atlantic basin. With generally lower pressures being forecast, this is still shaping up to be a very active season. Like 2004, it may not really kick in til August. When it does, we will all have plenty to keep us occupied.

So you are telling me that I should go get the yardwork done now, while I have time?

[Ptarmigan]

I think it should be a very active peak season or August and September. Remember it's only July 11th and yes the tropics flick on and off rapidly. I also think that October will act more like September this season and November like October which is why I think it will still be a very active season. July doesn't need massive activity for the season to be hyperactive. Just a storm or two is good enough. I think the end of July will feature Bonnie and maybe the C storm as well.

I'm looking for quality rather than quantity. We could have 20 weak tropical storms or a few weak fish cat 1 hurricanes yet it would be a relatively non existent season but if we have 12 storms and 8 or more of those are hurricane and major hurricanes, than that's an active season to me.

Some seasons with high ACE had only 12 to 15 storms form.
1950 had 18.7 ACE per a storm
1955 had 16.6 ACE per a storm
1958 had 12.1 ACE per a storm
1961 had 18.6 ACE per a storm
1967 had 15.3 ACE per a storm
1969 had 8.8 ACE per a storm
1980 had 13.4 ACE per a storm
1998 had 13 ACE per a storm
1999 had 14.8 ACE per a storm
2004 had 14.9 ACE per a storm
2005 had 8.9 ACE per a storm
2008 had 9.1 ACE per a storm

Notice that some seasons like 1961 and 1967 have high ACE per a storm, despite 1961 and 1967 had less than 12 named storms form. 2005 had 28 storms form, but per a ACE, it is at 9.2.
2008 had 9.1 ACE per a storm. The average ACE per a storm from 1870 to 2009 is 9.78 or 9.8. ACE per a storm is calculated from total number of storms, including sub-tropical storms, even though their ACE does not count.

[jinftl]

An assessment of current conditions or a morbid harbinger of some yet-to-be-conceived menaces to come? Either way....slightly morbid visual for a post....but it got my attention so hats off for that. I eagerly await the next one with faux drops of blood coming from the lettering...if there is a font that resembles cut-out letters from a newspaper, that would push it over the manical top!

What the current satellite may lack...the underlying variables...i.e., sst, tchp, enso neutral/la nina conditions...to name a few.....suggesting what lurks beneath is enough to keep my attention for the coming months ahead....this party has only just begun....(cue haunted house duh-duh-duh music). If it weren't for the pesky, nothing out of the ordinary Cat 2 in June, I would be ready to say this was done before it's begun. With such an expanse of clear skies on the current satellite...all I see is sst being allowed to warm even more than they already are!!!

p.s. as a fellow broward resident, i am not loving the top part of the D in Dead riding the I-595 corridor!!!

[HurricaneJoe22]

Glad you liked it.

[StormClouds63]

Conditions in the tropics can change relatively quickly, but I see at least 10 days of quiet ahead. Overall, I'm going to stick with my prediction of 13/7/3 for 2010 ... slightly above average, but nowhere near 2005.

Just a personal guess, but I think Danielle, Fiona, and Hermine will be the "big ones" for 2010. Igor? Way too obvious.

[KWT]

Those numbers are low even by the recent warm phase yet alone the expectations, then again if this season is like 1998 then it may not be far off number wise either!

As you say things can change rather rapidly. I remember last year we looked like we may go through till the 25th of August without anything and the whole basin was quiet and then suddenly out of nothing almost we had 3 named storms.