Do Tropical Storms follow the paths of previous storms?

[DanKellFla]

Maybe I am seeing things, but to me it looks like Tropical Storms like to follow in the path of previous Tropical Storms. Just last week, the region that had Alex had another system follow in the same general area. Fances/Jeane followed very similar paths in Florida years ago. Is there anything to this or is it just a coincidence?

[thetruesms]

If the storms follow each other fairly quickly, there is a good chance that they formed in the same area and that the synoptic setup that steered the last storm has not changed very much. As a result, the new storm will also be steered similarly.

[hurricanedude]

If storms develop quicly enough behind a system...before the steering currents change they can follow similiar paths, however the steering paterns are foreever changing so most storms do not follow each other...just in the cases you mentioned the steering patterns were the same or similar. hope that helps!

[KWT]

Sometimes you do get longer lasting broad patterns that stay similar and repeat over and over again in a season. In August/September 2004 the upper trough was placed more or less close to the coast coast and that had the effect of either lifting systems up just after they reached Florida (like Frances and Jeanne) or to curve them up from the Caribbean in the examples of Charley and Ivan.

2007 also saw something similar happen where the general pattern kept several of the storms heading westwards through the entire basin...those two being obviously Dean and Felix.

[JonathanBelles]

For the short term: maybe. If the setups can remain the same, storms will move in a similar matter. Even in the case of Alex/TD2, the setup was not close enough. Steering strength and direction both changed.

For the long term (past a few weeks): not usually. I am a big disbeliever is analogs because no two storms and no two setups are the same.

[jinftl]

Systems are steered by the environment they are under....high pressures, low pressures, cold fronts, etc. all serve to provide a path for storms to follow. Take a season like 2004....the orientation of the bermuda high consistently channeled storms into florida.

On a broader scale, how often have you NOT seen a wave emerging off of africa moving to the west or west-northwest. Again, that is due to the ridges that typically are in place in the late summer.

Do two developing systems in the western gulf/bay of campeche mean this season is going to exclusively focus on extreme south texas/north mexico? Not at all. Climatology would agree that this region is not unfamiliar with June/July systems. That in no way means the rest of the basin is shut down or 'in the clear'.

[Stephanie]

Great topic!

[SFLcane]

The important thing to watch for is what the conditions are that steer the storms when there is a storm in the area. Timing is critical. A pattern that would steer a Cape Verde Hurricane directly into Florida for example could exist for two months, but if there is no Hurricane to be steered the pattern is meaningless. Charley slammed into SW Florida because an early season trough just happened to be in the right place as Charley turned north in the Gulf. History shows most Tropical Cyclones that enter the Gulf pass west of the southwest coast of Florida and vent their fury from the Florida panhandle to Mexico. In 2007 we watched as two Cat 5 monsters traveled the whole length of the Caribbean but couldn't turn north because of the strong high pressure system to the north that happened to be in place at just the right time to protect Florida and the gulf coast. In 2004 and 2005 we watched as Charley, Dennis, Katrina, and Rita were able to get into the Gulf because they were not blocked. Regardless of how strong a Tropical Cyclone is, it always follows the path of least resistance. It's not "where" a Hurricane is, but "when".

[brunota2003]

I'll give you an example of two storms that formed fairly close together, in the same general area (about a week apart I believe) in 2003...Fabian and Isabel...Fabian curved out to sea while passing directly over top of Bermuda as a Cat 4 (because a trough weakened the ridge and allowed him to curve away from the U.S.), whereas Isabel smacked into N.C. as a Cat 2 and on up through the Mid-Atlantic/Northeastern U.S. (because she decided to come attend my 13th bday party ...ok, ok, so it was actually because the high restrengthened and the trough came in too late)