WPAC : TROPICAL DEPRESSION CONSON

[drdavisjr]

Plus this is a 20kph typhoon. I think Ketsana was about 8-15kph

If it holds at 65 knots, that's about 120 kph

[HURAKAN]

Plus this is a 20kph typhoon. I think Ketsana was about 8-15kph

If it holds at 65 knots, that's about 120 kph

I think drdavisjr is talking about movement

[drdavisjr]

I think drdavisjr is talking about movement

Yes, most likely. My mistake.

[dexterlabio]

Plus this is a 20kph typhoon. I think Ketsana was about 8-15kph

Ketsana took roughly 6 hours to cross the entire Central Luzon. Conson is moving a bit faster than Ketsana did, I think.

I believe the "eye" is almost at the vicinity of Northern Quezon. Strong winds are now continuously blowing outside.

[drdavisjr]

Plus this is a 20kph typhoon. I think Ketsana was about 8-15kph

Ketsana took roughly 6 hours to cross the entire Central Luzon. Conson is moving a bit faster than Ketsana did, I think.

I believe the "eye" is almost at the vicinity of Northern Quezon. Strong winds are now continuously blowing outside.

I wonder what the storm will do to the southwest monsoon. Can we expect heavy rains for a few days after the actual storm moves out?

[dexterlabio]

I wonder what the storm will do to the southwest monsoon. Can we expect heavy rains for a few days after the actual storm moves out?

Conson has made the southwest monsoon "alive" again. It may affect the SW monsoon once it moves out, but it could be minimal once Conson moves farther away from the country.



Deep convection is spreading throughout the metro and nearby provinces. I assume that heavy rains are now being felt by these areas.

[oaba09]

LATEST FROM JTWC:



WTPN31 PGTW 131500
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 03W (CONSON) WARNING NR 009
DOWNGRADED FROM TYPHOON 03W
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
131200Z --- NEAR 14.5N 122.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 280 DEGREES AT 14 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.5N 122.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
140000Z --- 15.2N 119.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
141200Z --- 16.3N 117.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
150000Z --- 17.4N 115.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
151200Z --- 18.5N 114.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
161200Z --- 21.1N 112.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
171200Z --- 23.5N 110.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
181200Z --- 25.9N 109.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
131500Z POSITION NEAR 14.7N 121.6E.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 03W (CONSON), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 70 NM EAST
OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 14 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. THE SYSTEM WAS DOWNGRADED TO TS STRENGTH DUE TO
INCREASED LAND INTERACTION AND STRENGTHENING NORTHEASTERLY VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR. DVORAK ESTIMATES HAVE SUBSEQUENTLY DECREASED AND RANGE
FROM 45 (PGTW) TO 77 (RJTD) KNOTS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 131200Z IS 20 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 132100Z, 140300Z, 140900Z
AND 141500Z.//
NNNN

[Infdidoll]

Good luck all...I'm off to bed. Hope you all have a safe, if not a little noisy night.

[oaba09]

Signal #2 raised in metro manila......according to PAGASA, the windspeed weakened to about 95 kph...

[HURAKAN]

Latest

[Chacor]

Nice new burst of deep convection.

[oaba09]

Nice new burst of deep convection.

we'll be facing that in the next couple of hours....a welcome change after months of el nino...

[ManilaTC]

Hi Guys, Power is about to be out here... Conson is here!!!

[oaba09]

wow...all kinds of stuff flying across our street....hope no one gets hurt...

[drdavisjr]

wow...all kinds of stuff flying across our street....hope no one gets hurt...

Very windy, but little rain.

[scb_weather_boi]

winds are starting to pick up here in taft avenue..

[oaba09]

wow...all kinds of stuff flying across our street....hope no one gets hurt...

Very windy, but little rain.

yup...I'm loving the cold and windy weather....

[scb_weather_boi]

wow...all kinds of stuff flying across our street....hope no one gets hurt...

Very windy, but little rain.

yup...I'm loving the cold and windy weather....

me too. makes me feel so awake!

[oaba09]

according to reports, 19 men that were riding 2 boats are currently missing....hope the army finds them....

[scb_weather_boi]

winds are howling in our area! i can also see several power flashes in the sky! feels spectacular to witness such