Preseason Predictions Get Us All Fired Up...

[blp]

Well for those that just want to see something even if it might be fantasy. Check out the ultra long range CFS link from below from Monday 00GMT it shows a good amount of activity beginning in early August.

http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/ ... HIV=0&WMO=

[Florida1118]

I like to watch storms form, as we all do. I dont mind a little 40mph TS either. Once you get into the 65+ area though...ermmm, Ill pass for that. I dont wish for any place anywere to get a system at all, accept maybe a a TD for the NE and there drought issue. But according to Impactweather.com...Im starting to worry.

[somethingfunny]

Interesting that so far we've had a hurricane and a tropical depression hit within an orange, but very close to a yellow area, on that map.

[xcool22]

Impactweather new update come soon aug landfull riskareas

[floridasun78]

what helping keep tropical the way their now is few ull that causing shear in tropical and dry air over Atlantic but you see near afica that coming to end so enjoy nice weather before we start saying when we going have break

[KWT]

I think we probably have another 10 days before we anything of note possibly starting to develop. I suspect we may have quite a heavy CV season this year, esp as we get closer to the back end of August.

This season will be a good test as to whether we can get above 14NS that seems to be the upper limit with moderate La Nina's.

Remember people even if we were to *only* get 12-14NS most of those will be long trackers and probably a higher ratio of hurricane/MH per storm.

[Ivanhater]

Here is an email I grabbed from Dr. Klotzbach referring to this quiet period and if they are lowering their numbers.....Active season still coming

From:
"Phil Klotzbach"
Add sender to Contacts
To:

Dear Tom,

At this point, large-scale climate conditions look very favorable for an active season. June-July activity is typically very low, and consequently, we aren't surprised that we haven't had that much activity so far. An average season doesn't get its second named storm until August 1 and its first hurricane until August 10, so we are still ahead of the average season (and will be for several more weeks), even if nothing more happens.

Phil

----------------------------------------------------
Phil Klotzbach, Ph.D.
Research Scientist
Department of Atmospheric Science
Colorado State University
philk@atmos.colostate.edu

[Ivanhater]

Looking good for development

[Blown Away]

The negative NAO should result in less SAL and the conditions are getting ripe for development. I still think we will see at least 1 named storm before August 1.

[cycloneye]

:uarrow:
The negative NAO should result in less SAL and the conditions are getting ripe for development. I still think we will see at least 1 named storm before August 1.

And weaker trade winds mean less upwelling, warming more the waters.

[Sanibel]

Shhh. Let the hurricane god sleep. The lack of storms is good for the oil spill disaster effort.

[Andrew92]

Another thing to remember, and I started a new thread about this on Sunday, this period is not usually a very conducive time for tropical developments. During this current week (July 12-18), during the current active phase since 1995, only two storms have developed from tropical waves. And I just dug back to find the most recent before then, and you'd have to go all the way back to 1979 for Tropical Storm Claudette, to find a storm developing from a tropical wave during this week.

It is true that five other storms have developed during this week since 1995. However, those all came from frontal systems during El Nino years, which this year is not.

Therefore, don't be surprised if nothing develops this week.

-Andrew92

[canes04]

Enjoy this slow period. I have a feeling the so called switch is about to be turned on.
The conditions in the ATL appear to becoming more favorable as the days pass.

I hope everyone is prepared! The next 3 months should be interesting.

Ok, going back to lurking

[KWT]

That shear zone is still holding firm, looking increasingly like 2007 in that respect...though the global pattern is undoubtably more akin to 1998 right now...

[Stormcenter]

In reference to his comment about how "typically" June and July are quiet months. Well if the numbers (up to 23) that are being predicted by many are going to pan out out then we should have more activity already (similar to 2005) when we already had 5 named storms. This not suppose to be an "average" season per many expert's opinions. We shall see.

Here is an email I grabbed from Dr. Klotzbach referring to this quiet period and if they are lowering their numbers.....Active season still coming

From:
"Phil Klotzbach"
Add sender to Contacts
To:

Dear Tom,

At this point, large-scale climate conditions look very favorable for an active season. June-July activity is typically very low, and consequently, we aren't surprised that we haven't had that much activity so far. An average season doesn't get its second named storm until August 1 and its first hurricane until August 10, so we are still ahead of the average season (and will be for several more weeks), even if nothing more happens.

Phil

----------------------------------------------------
Phil Klotzbach, Ph.D.
Research Scientist
Department of Atmospheric Science
Colorado State University
philk@atmos.colostate.edu

[KWT]

18 can easily still pan out though Stormcenter, lets use 1969 as an example which didn't get its 2nd NS til lthe 11th August, so we have a good month to keep on track with 1969. 2004 had 15NS from 31st July through to early October so we 16-18 is still more than reachable.

[SFLcane]

That shear zone is still holding firm, looking increasingly like 2007 in that respect...though the global pattern is undoubtably more akin to 1998 right now...

That shear zone should begin to lift in time per the GFS long range. This has been a pretty typical july across the atl in my view of things.

Last nights 18z GFS run...favorable environment.

[StormClouds63]

It's pretty clear that comparisons of 2010 and 2005 were off-the-mark. Five years ago, we were already tracking Emily.

Preseason predictions that forecast busy seasons followed by inactivity or non-U.S. impacts early in the season can indeed lead to complacency. However, August and September are going to be busy. We all know it ... not 2005 busy, but busy enough for the potential of loss of life for those on or near the coast. Encourage your friends and neighbors to maintain their hurricane supply kits, emergency funds, and to review their evacuation plans.

[KWT]

2005 wasn't that exceptionally busy in the peak of the season ,what made 2005 exceptional is how the activity was more or less the same from late June right through to November. August and September had 5NS each, which quite a few seasons have managed before. October was exceptional though in 2005 with 7NS.

2002 was an El Nino but had 8NS plus a depression in September, so even in 'poor' seasons you can get some big ole bursts of activity.

[StormTracker]

The saying: "the quiet before the storm"(in this case before the storm(s)) is not a household saying for nothin'!!! Just follow the BoyScouts motto and, "Be Prepared"!!!