Preseason Predictions Get Us All Fired Up...

[KWT]

Yeah as I said in the other thread, you've gotta pray for the best but certainly prepare for the worst.

In theory probably the max NS we could get now would be something in the 18-19NS range if we followed 1969 and fell just short of 2005 for the rest of the season...but even that is probably a little on the high side of whats likely, probably 16-18NS is the best range.

[Category 5]

Its been eerily quiet worldwide of late it seems, other than Alex and that little burst of activity in the EPAC in late June. Even the WPAC has been unusually quiet. however La Nina isn't exactly the favorite for WPAC activity. Give it a few weeks, the basins should heat up, I think we'll at least see Bonnie when the MJO passes back over.

[ConvergenceZone]

I think that the pre-season off the chart expectations did have us fired up thinking
that the entire season would be active, not just August and September, and maybe
part of October.

I still feel that they are going to bring the numbers down, especially if
we have zero development within the next 2 weeks.

While I realize that hurricane season usually doesn't start ramping up until mid
august, this SUPPOSE to be an un-usual year. Also, I like to see the models showing
some type of development in the Atlantic a week or two in advance as the conditions
start improving. So far I don't see that. I know I sound like a broken record,
but heck, there's nothing else to talk about . If conditions really start
to change within the next 2 weeks, I could be wrong though.

[KWT]

1969 was an unusual year and what happened that year CZ...

All I'd say and have been saying is don't just assume because we have maybe nothing till August now that we won't have a blistering season that doesn't stop...just soooo many big seasons have had 0 or 1NS before August, sure they may not have the 17-20NS some were predicting but they sure had thier own share of amazing hurricanes...

2004 should not be forgotten so soon!

[ConvergenceZone]

1969 was an unusual year and what happened that year CZ...

All I'd say and have been saying is don't just assume because we have maybe nothing till August now that we won't have a blistering season that doesn't stop...just soooo many big seasons have had 0 or 1NS before August, sure they may not have the 17-20NS some were predicting but they sure had thier own share of amazing hurricanes...

2004 should not be forgotten so soon!

I guess I just like to see something in advance showing that those type of conditions for extreme hyper development are underway, and I don't really see them yet.

[wxman57]

It's pretty clear that comparisons of 2010 and 2005 were off-the-mark. Five years ago, we were already tracking Emily.

Preseason predictions that forecast busy seasons followed by inactivity or non-U.S. impacts early in the season can indeed lead to complacency. However, August and September are going to be busy. We all know it ... not 2005 busy, but busy enough for the potential of loss of life for those on or near the coast. Encourage your friends and neighbors to maintain their hurricane supply kits, emergency funds, and to review their evacuation plans.

Actually, you cannot make such a conclusion. The 2005 season is an analog year because of a similar pattern of oceanographic and atmospheric pressures. No one was expecting that the number of named storms in 2010 would be similar. What we are predicting is that the general pattern of development and movement may be similar to 2005. We're already seeing that in the Caribbean. Alex 2010 vs. Emily 2005, for example. Emily did develop farther east, but the general tracks were quite similar.

Just as in 2005, we expect that the Caribbean will be a very favorable region for development in 2010. In addition, a similarly-placed and strength Bermuda High might result in an increasing risk of a Florida landfall this year (tracks like Katrina and Dennis).

[KWT]

Well yeah to be fair the SAL and the shear that has been sitting in the developmental zones has rather put pay to those systems, but once again TD2 was pretty much nearly a TS, 95L was probably 6-12hrs from being a TD/TS as well, so we could just as easily right now be on 3/1/0 rather than 1/1/0...

Wait until other parts of the basin that are more favourable open up for action, the E.atlantic will soon become more favourable once the SAL outbreaks ease off further.

Just relax, if we have nothing else around say the 20-25th of August, then your point maybe valid...

[Ivanhater]

It's pretty clear that comparisons of 2010 and 2005 were off-the-mark. Five years ago, we were already tracking Emily.

Preseason predictions that forecast busy seasons followed by inactivity or non-U.S. impacts early in the season can indeed lead to complacency. However, August and September are going to be busy. We all know it ... not 2005 busy, but busy enough for the potential of loss of life for those on or near the coast. Encourage your friends and neighbors to maintain their hurricane supply kits, emergency funds, and to review their evacuation plans.

Actually, you cannot make such a conclusion. The 2005 season is an analog year because of a similar pattern of oceanographic and atmospheric pressures. No one was expecting that the number of named storms in 2010 would be similar. What we are predicting is that the general pattern of development and movement may be similar to 2005. We're already seeing that in the Caribbean. Alex 2010 vs. Emily 2005, for example. Emily did develop farther east, but the general tracks were quite similar.

Just as in 2005, we expect that the Caribbean will be a very favorable region for development in 2010. In addition, a similarly-placed and strength Bermuda High might result in an increasing risk of a Florida landfall this year (tracks like Katrina and Dennis).

Ouch! I have to add the quality of storms this year look to be strong..

[ConvergenceZone]

Well yeah to be fair the SAL and the shear that has been sitting in the developmental zones has rather put pay to those systems, but once again TD2 was pretty much nearly a TS, 95L was probably 6-12hrs from being a TD/TS as well, so we could just as easily right now be on 3/1/0 rather than 1/1/0...

Wait until other parts of the basin that are more favourable open up for action, the E.atlantic will soon become more favourable once the SAL outbreaks ease off further.

Just relax, if we have nothing else around say the 20-25th of August, then your point maybe valid...

KWT, the only thing I would change on what you said is that
I think my point might be valid if we don't see anything by August 15th....
I think waiting until the end of August would what we would Normally
see for a "normal activity" year....I guess I"m just not sold on the
"activity will continue until November" prediction by some.....

[Ivanhater]

There is so much heat out there, I wouldn't be surprised to see it last into December.....

[cycloneye]

There is so much heat out there, I wouldn't be surprised to see it last into December.....

La Nina will contribute for the late season developments.

[KWT]

KWT, the only thing I would change on what you said is that
I think my point might be valid if we don't see anything by August 15th....
I think waiting until the end of August would what we would Normally
see for a "normal activity" year....I guess I"m just not sold on the
"activity will continue until November" prediction by some.....

Hmmm well 1998 had Bonnie on the 19th of August...and whilst it didn't have huge numbers I think you would never call that a normal year...

1961 was another very late season, we didn't get the B storm that year till the 2nd of September...that year ended up with 11/8/7, with two of those majors being Carla and Hattie, both category-5 hurricanes.

Anyway it'll be a moot point, I see no reason at all why we won't have several storms by August 15th.

ps, this season will probably go on quite late, it is a La Nina season afterall and they tend to keep going well into Octoer at least.