BOC system

[srainhoutx]

Fun fact: Every storm we have from now on is going to take that path.*

*apparently.

You should see the CPC Outlook for August...

http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/predictions/30day/

[KWT]

The upper high is being very stubborn at the moment, not much really is going to shift things about, starting to think the main risk zone may even be over Mexico/Yucatan and Texas this year based on the last 45 days of steering patterns, with the rest maybe off into any weakness to the east of the US...need to be careful though because only needs a brief 2 week shift and we have 2 majors right into the current main risk zone...

Anyway there is good model agreement this time at least with any possible track, long term chances of development probably slightly going up.

[ronjon]

Still no strong vorticity at 850 mb to hang your hat on in the SW caribbean, although convection has increased. If heavier convection forms overnight, we may have our next INVEST.

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic2/real-time/windmain.php?&basin=atlantic&sat=wg8&prod=vor&zoom=&time=

[Ivanhater]

10 percent


000
ABNT20 KNHC 152336
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT THU JUL 15 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED IN THE FAR EASTERN ATLANTIC IS MOVING
WESTWARD AT 15 MPH. NO SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT IS ANTICIPATED AT
LEAST DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...10
PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

A LARGE BUT DISORGANIZED AREA OF CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS OVER THE
CENTRAL AND WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA IS ASSOCIATED WITH A WESTWARD
MOVING TROPICAL WAVE INTERACTING WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH.
ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY...WILL BE SLOW TO OCCUR. THERE IS
A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. HEAVY RAINS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
WEATHER SYSTEM WILL LIKELY SPREAD OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA
DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA/CANGIALOSI

[KWT]

Yeah the Vorticity is really spread out with this region, we saw something similat with the last two systems that got upgraded as well in this region and this can sometimes take time to change.

Still there is some weak model support for something now. Could eventually be our next invest.

[Ivanhater]

[Weatherfreak000]

Finally after 10 excruciating days, we have action again in the ATL.

[xcool22]

Madden - Julian Oscillation at work

[Wx_Warrior]

very little action....2 10%-ers.....

[KWT]

Finally after 10 excruciating days, we have action again in the ATL.

Yeah tell me about it, whilst the Atlantic right now isn't that favourable, this is the one region that obviously does need to be watched, once that TW comes along it may just add the extra spark thats needed to lift this one off the ground a little bit later.

[Cyclone1]

very little action....2 10%-ers.....

Shh... let us enjoy this. ;D

[cycloneye]

Madden - Julian Oscillation at work

You bet. Wet phase arriving into the Caribbean.

[Ivanhater]

Mischief beginning

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... _floater_1

[xcool22]

Here We Go

[cycloneye]

00z Surface Analysis by TAFB:

[Wx_Warrior]

0z gfs para 102h

[Wx_Warrior]

gfs para 144h

[Wx_Warrior]

last one:

168h gfs para 0z

[Ivanhater]

Quite a large system in the gulf...

[Wx_Warrior]

large & messy...IE the other 2....let's see what the EURO has ot offer.

EDIT: gfs para has skipped development the last run then picked back up.