Top 5 Hurricane Vulnerable & Overdue Cities
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- MGC
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Re: Top 5 Hurricane Vulnerable & Overdue Cities
Wind won't destroy a city.....water will. Had Katrina or Ike tracked just 25 miles west, both New Orleans and Houston would have been put down for a lot longer. I'd take a Charley sized hurricane any day compared to an Ike or Katrina. Cat-5 winds have nothing on wind driven surge....nothing. Even a large Cat-2 into the Tampa area just north of the city will cause massive surge flooding. Another 1928 hurricane in the the Miami Beach area would cause massive surge flooding. Same with Houston. At least New Orleans has levees which provide some protection. Too much focus is placed on max winds. Only a tiny region right along the coast will experience those winds. I visited where Charley hit about a year after the hurricane. There was little damage evident....I guess the good people in that area repaired the damage in a timely manner. Not so from Katrina....still a mess along the beach and the oil is icing on the cake......MGC
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Re: Top 5 Hurricane Vulnerable & Overdue Cities
StormClouds63 wrote:Despite all the terrible human suffering and tremendous flood damage, Katrina was not the worse case scenario for New Orleans. On the Monday following Katrina, national news media were proclaiming that New Orleans once again "dodged a major bullet." Katrina had weakened from a category 5 to category 3. NO had avoided the right/front quadrant of the storm, leaving the Mississippi coast in ruins from the storm surge. It was not until the levees gave way on Tuesday that the terrible flooding and, consequently, the horrible human suffering, began to take place.
A category 5 hurricane, moving west/northwest and approaching NO, is the absolute worst case scenario. It would be a path similar to the 1947 storm:
http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atlantic/1947/4/track.gif
I doubt a Cat 5 could develop or grow off the Panhandle, as it would completely miss the Loop Current and remain over shallower water. But even a Cat 3 from that direction would be much worse than Katrina...
As for the Charley comparison, I was in Punta Gorda this past winter - you'd hardly realize that a monster hurricane hit them just a few years ago.
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i wouldn't be so quick to downplay cat 5 winds even in a laudable effort to increase storm surge awareness. true cat 5 winds will level just about everything. how are they any different than an EF4 or EF5 tornado? actually they're worse since they would probably last longer. if i were in an area threatened by either i would be outta dodge...quick. there are some hurricane hazards that warrant the hoisting of a white flag of surrender immediately and cat 5 winds and storm surge inundation BOTH qualify equally in my book.
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Re: Top 5 Hurricane Vulnerable & Overdue Cities
Without a doubt another Katrina type hit on N.O would put the city out of business especially if it hit it more directly and was even stronger than Katrina at landfall. A hurricane's winds are only a small aspect of its damage potential, which is why I don't understand rating the storm's strength on wind. The real power lies in size and pressure not the winds. Plus any wind above Cat 2 wind power would cover a very small area, maybe a few miles across. Those who do witness those winds are unfortunate, but most people do not.
That's why I hate when people say they went through a major hurricane, and it was no big deal. You'll realize the people who suffer the brunt of the wind power suffer the most damage. Those are the people who went through a major hurricane, not those 30 miles away that barely experienced Cat 1 winds. Then there are storms like Ike where size and surge matter.
That's why I hate when people say they went through a major hurricane, and it was no big deal. You'll realize the people who suffer the brunt of the wind power suffer the most damage. Those are the people who went through a major hurricane, not those 30 miles away that barely experienced Cat 1 winds. Then there are storms like Ike where size and surge matter.
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- thetruesms
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Re:
While I'm sure there are definitely gusts that would qualify, I'm pretty certain that no measured or estimated sustained wind from a tropical cyclone would make EF5. Wind speeds in the strongest tornadoes (the May 3, 1999 tornado in Moore, OK, for example) have any hurricane beat hands down. However, with the new wind speed estimates for the EF scale, a Cat 5 would settle pretty nicely into an EF4 range.psyclone wrote:i wouldn't be so quick to downplay cat 5 winds even in a laudable effort to increase storm surge awareness. true cat 5 winds will level just about everything. how are they any different than an EF4 or EF5 tornado? actually they're worse since they would probably last longer. if i were in an area threatened by either i would be outta dodge...quick. there are some hurricane hazards that warrant the hoisting of a white flag of surrender immediately and cat 5 winds and storm surge inundation BOTH qualify equally in my book.
There is something to be said for the size difference, but given the size of the area that actually sees a hurricane's maximum winds, it's probably not nearly as big a difference in area than it would appear at first glance.
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- Blown Away
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Re: Top 5 Hurricane Vulnerable & Overdue Cities
MGC wrote:Wind won't destroy a city.....water will. Had Katrina or Ike tracked just 25 miles west, both New Orleans and Houston would have been put down for a lot longer. I'd take a Charley sized hurricane any day compared to an Ike or Katrina. Cat-5 winds have nothing on wind driven surge....nothing. Even a large Cat-2 into the Tampa area just north of the city will cause massive surge flooding. Another 1928 hurricane in the the Miami Beach area would cause massive surge flooding. Same with Houston. At least New Orleans has levees which provide some protection. Too much focus is placed on max winds. Only a tiny region right along the coast will experience those winds. I visited where Charley hit about a year after the hurricane. There was little damage evident....I guess the good people in that area repaired the damage in a timely manner. Not so from Katrina....still a mess along the beach and the oil is icing on the cake......MGC
You put Andrew's Cat 4/5 winds in downtown Miami and you will see a disaster greater than Katrina.
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Re: Top 5 Hurricane Vulnerable & Overdue Cities
MGC wrote:Wind won't destroy a city.....water will. Had Katrina or Ike tracked just 25 miles west, both New Orleans and Houston would have been put down for a lot longer. I'd take a Charley sized hurricane any day compared to an Ike or Katrina. Cat-5 winds have nothing on wind driven surge....nothing. Even a large Cat-2 into the Tampa area just north of the city will cause massive surge flooding. Another 1928 hurricane in the the Miami Beach area would cause massive surge flooding. Same with Houston. At least New Orleans has levees which provide some protection. Too much focus is placed on max winds. Only a tiny region right along the coast will experience those winds. I visited where Charley hit about a year after the hurricane. There was little damage evident....I guess the good people in that area repaired the damage in a timely manner. Not so from Katrina....still a mess along the beach and the oil is icing on the cake......MGC
I was in Punta Gorda the day after Charley hit and I can tell you there were large portions of that town destroyed and when I say destroyed I mean leveled to the ground.
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Yeah thetruesms, another point I agree with. If you think about it the highest winds that get above 120kts in a landfalling category-4/5 is usually going to be found in the Nquadrants eyewall and usually the left eyewall won't reach that high unless its a cat-5.
Usually the strongest winds are found in a fairly small region in the RFQ and in that way it isn't much larger then a big tornado probably in terms of where the highest winds are located.
Usually the strongest winds are found in a fairly small region in the RFQ and in that way it isn't much larger then a big tornado probably in terms of where the highest winds are located.
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products
Re: Top 5 Hurricane Vulnerable & Overdue Cities
MGC wrote: I visited where Charley hit about a year after the hurricane. There was little damage evident....I guess the good people in that area repaired the damage in a timely manner. Not so from Katrina....still a mess along the beach and the oil is icing on the cake......MGC
This statement couldn't be further from the truth. Yes, it was a small storm but there was a 5 mile wide swath of destruction from Punta Gorda all the way up to Orlando. Steel Highway Light Poles were snapped in 1/2, not to mention trees, homes, trailers, etc... Maybe much of it was cleaned up before you got there. I live an hour from there. It looked like a nuke had went off or a 5 mile wide Tornado went through.
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Re: Top 5 Hurricane Vulnerable & Overdue Cities
When you hear comments that begin with, "New York City (Manhattan) hasn't been directly hit since 1821", that should make everyone realize that those in charge have much bigger things to worry about (as we all know) than the possibility of a Cat 4 or 5 hurricane....
And that's not to say they shouldn't plan for one (per the 1938 hurricane), since strong low pressure systems during the winter do bring winds close to hurricane force to that area at least once every few years, and in reality Manhatta is more prone to flooding from very high tides in general, but to worry about an event that is in the once every 100 year category (actually close to 200 years) is unnecessary, considering the more serious man-made threats they face every day...
So, I'd have to say the list should be "Top 4" than "Top 5"...
Frank
And that's not to say they shouldn't plan for one (per the 1938 hurricane), since strong low pressure systems during the winter do bring winds close to hurricane force to that area at least once every few years, and in reality Manhatta is more prone to flooding from very high tides in general, but to worry about an event that is in the once every 100 year category (actually close to 200 years) is unnecessary, considering the more serious man-made threats they face every day...
So, I'd have to say the list should be "Top 4" than "Top 5"...
Frank
Last edited by Frank2 on Fri Jul 16, 2010 9:07 am, edited 4 times in total.
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With regards to Hurricane Charley, this is the video that will forever stay with me from that hurricane, totally ruined the Garage:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gVkMwo26smk
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gVkMwo26smk
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products
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Re: Top 5 Hurricane Vulnerable & Overdue Cities
Blown Away wrote:MGC wrote:Wind won't destroy a city.....water will. Had Katrina or Ike tracked just 25 miles west, both New Orleans and Houston would have been put down for a lot longer. I'd take a Charley sized hurricane any day compared to an Ike or Katrina. Cat-5 winds have nothing on wind driven surge....nothing. Even a large Cat-2 into the Tampa area just north of the city will cause massive surge flooding. Another 1928 hurricane in the the Miami Beach area would cause massive surge flooding. Same with Houston. At least New Orleans has levees which provide some protection. Too much focus is placed on max winds. Only a tiny region right along the coast will experience those winds. I visited where Charley hit about a year after the hurricane. There was little damage evident....I guess the good people in that area repaired the damage in a timely manner. Not so from Katrina....still a mess along the beach and the oil is icing on the cake......MGC
You put Andrew's Cat 4/5 winds in downtown Miami and you will see a disaster greater than Katrina.
Put those winds in New Orleans and you'll have complete chaos.
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Re: Top 5 Hurricane Vulnerable & Overdue Cities
caneman wrote:MGC wrote: I visited where Charley hit about a year after the hurricane. There was little damage evident....I guess the good people in that area repaired the damage in a timely manner. Not so from Katrina....still a mess along the beach and the oil is icing on the cake......MGC
This statement couldn't be further from the truth. Yes, it was a small storm but there was a 5 mile wide swath of destruction from Punta Gorda all the way up to Orlando. Steel Highway Light Poles were snapped in 1/2, not to mention trees, homes, trailers, etc... Maybe much of it was cleaned up before you got there. I live an hour from there. It looked like a nuke had went off or a 5 mile wide Tornado went through.
Like caneman said, Charley was very much one of those storms where the exact path of the storm mattered as the damage swath was narrow. Area near the Orlando aiport was hit pretty hard and there was a hotel that didn't reopen until 2-3 years later.
Another "things would have been different if the track was only slightly changed" storm was Dennis. If the last wobble had been to the west, many of the damaged structures (from Ivan) on the Navy facilities probably would have been finished off. Had that happened, the talk about moving training schools away from there probably would have become action.
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Re: Top 5 Hurricane Vulnerable & Overdue Cities
I rode out Wilma in a Sebring hotel - crowded with evacuees from SW Florida, many who were victims of Charley, and these retired people seemed about as depressed as could be at the thought having to flee yet another hurricane, just one year later, and many just sat in the lobby during the height of what we received (heavy rain squalls) with little to say, espcially after the power went out for about 45 minutes...
As mentioned, the severe damage width of Charley was relatively narrow (approximately 10 miles) - but so was Andrew's, and we know what happened there (that was another evacuation for me - ugh - not fun)...
As mentioned, the severe damage width of Charley was relatively narrow (approximately 10 miles) - but so was Andrew's, and we know what happened there (that was another evacuation for me - ugh - not fun)...
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- Texas Snowman
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Re: Top 5 Hurricane Vulnerable & Overdue Cities
Most overdue in U.S.:
1. Direct hit by a major hurricane on NYC
2. Worst case landfall path for a major coming into New Orleans (i.e. 1947 path)
3. Worst case landfall path for a major coming into Houston/Galveston (i.e. Ike hitting 20 to 30 miles SW of where he did).
4. Major hurricane into Tampa Bay
5. Andrew-like hit on downtown Miami instead of Homestead.
Honorable Mention I: Major hurricane landfalling just to the south of the mouth of the Rio Grande, Brownsville, and South Padre Island
Honorable Mention II: Major hurricane landfalling just south of Corpus Christi, Texas.
Honorable Mention III: Major hurricane landfalling south of Charleston, S.C.
1. Direct hit by a major hurricane on NYC
2. Worst case landfall path for a major coming into New Orleans (i.e. 1947 path)
3. Worst case landfall path for a major coming into Houston/Galveston (i.e. Ike hitting 20 to 30 miles SW of where he did).
4. Major hurricane into Tampa Bay
5. Andrew-like hit on downtown Miami instead of Homestead.
Honorable Mention I: Major hurricane landfalling just to the south of the mouth of the Rio Grande, Brownsville, and South Padre Island
Honorable Mention II: Major hurricane landfalling just south of Corpus Christi, Texas.
Honorable Mention III: Major hurricane landfalling south of Charleston, S.C.
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- MGC
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Re: Top 5 Hurricane Vulnerable & Overdue Cities
I searched all over for the extreme wind damage from Charley.....could not find it. I found the tornado damage in Moore in 1999 without any trouble. All you had to do was drive along I-35 until you came across the area with everything gone. Never found the sweet spot for Charley. Of course I was there a year after the hurricane and perhaps it was repaired. I make it a habit to visit areas that have been hit hard by hurricanes, I've observed hurricane damage since Hilda in 1964. Only Andrew has escaped my observation....but, I've seen the pictures. However, I stand by my opinion that water will destroy way more than the narrow swath of Cat 5-4 winds. Come on down to the Alabama, Mississippi and Louisiana coast and see what surge will do......MGC
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- Texas Snowman
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Re: Top 5 Hurricane Vulnerable & Overdue Cities
MGC wrote:However, I stand by my opinion that water will destroy way more than the narrow swath of Cat 5-4 winds. Come on down to the Alabama, Mississippi and Louisiana coast and see what surge will do......MGC
Without a doubt, the sledge-hammer battering caused by a big storm surge causes extreme damage in many places where a major hurricane makes landfall.
However, I've talked with surivors of majors who might disagree with you about the amount of damage that wind can cause. Including some who lived well inland.
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- gatorcane
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Re:
psyclone wrote:i don't think anyone is doubting the severity or danger of storm surge but to say i'd rather have cat 5 winds is kinda like choosing the firing squad over the chair...different routes to the same destination... you're going to have a bad day.
Well yes I certainly agree with that -- would not be a good day at all. Do note, that most of those CAT 5 sustained winds do not make it onshore and stay out over the open water. Winds would be more like CAT 3/4 near the coast (obviously some destructive winds nonetheless) or CAT 1-3 farther inland at least at the surface. Certainly water does more damage than wind (as far as the amount of force/pressure it exerts) so I agree with MGC on that. I would take my chances against wind inland from the coast in a non-floodzone than a storm surge at the coast any day.
Last edited by gatorcane on Fri Jul 16, 2010 10:14 pm, edited 4 times in total.
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