Disturbed Area in Central Gulf of Mexico

[KatDaddy]

Yep. I also see that bbadon. There is a spin over the Central GOM. It will be interesting to see if convection increases during the day.

[KWT]

Yeah I can see that broad turning as well in the Gulf, very little in the way of convection other then the 'popcorn' convection that you see, though there is much deeper stuff further north.

[Ivanhater]

10 Percent

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO ARE
ASSOCIATED WITH A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE. SURFACE PRESSURES ARE
NOT FALLING SIGNIFICANTLY...AND DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY...WILL BE SLOW
TO OCCUR AS THE SYSTEM MOVES SLOWLY WESTWARD OR WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT
...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS.

[poof121]

Shear is basically zero in this area...

[srainhoutx]

You are correct. An area of weak high pressure is currently over SE TX. We have had little to no wind the past couple of days.

[Wx_Warrior]

So true srain....it's been brutal heat.

[wxman57]

Here are a few charts I made. First the current surface analysis with satellite. Definitely shows a surface trof out there and possibly a very weak LLC. However, there is very little convergence in the vicinity of the lower pressure.


Now let's look aloft. Here's a chart with current 500mb heights in 5 meter increments (yellow) and surface pressures in 0.5 mb increments (pink). Definitely a 500 mb trof across the area.


And, finally, the GFS projection for 7PM CDT Saturday (42 hrs from now). Upper-level trof and surface feature moving inland into Texas Saturday night. With minimal convergence now, relatively high pressures offshore and the short time left over water, this system is not likely to develop. Could give us some rain in Texas on Sunday, though.

[poof121]

:uarrow:

You are correct. An area of weak high pressure is currently over SE TX. We have had little to no wind the past couple of days.

But I do remember someone saying to get cyclogenesis, you need at least a little bit of shear. But I could be wrong about that.

[KWT]

Interesting to see they've given it a 10%, seems reasonable enough though thats for sure. Considering where it is right now and the situation its in, probably won't have quite enough time but you never know...

[Ivanhater]

J.B take on this system

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NAIb_d-dXZY

[KWT]

I do enjoy JB alot, says people think the WRF is on speed, thats a win IMO!

Still I can see why Joe is a little alert for a possible sneaky system here, you can't ever totally rule out this system, though to be honest I'd be much more worried if there was decent low level convergence...

[HURAKAN]

Latest

[KWT]

Convection is developing close to any turning is occuring though its still got a long way to go...I bet we have an invest on this by tomorrow...

[tailgater]

Could I get one of the Mods to change the Title to GOM instead area near the Bahama's. It looks like it is starting to flare up this morning maybe something to watch a little closer?

I changed the title, but it's just an upper-level low. A wave passing to the south is enhancing convection today, but development chances are minimal.

Thanks for changing the title and posting those charts of what the GFS thinks will occur.
latest radar
http://images.intellicast.com/WxImages/ ... e_anim.gif

[MGC]

Surprised the NHC has upgraded this mess to yellow. I guess they are dying to track something also....MGC

[cycloneye]

TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT FRI JUL 16 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED JUST EAST OF NICARAGUA
CONTINUES TO PRODUCE DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER A
LARGE PORTION OF THE SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. SIGNIFICANT
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS NOT EXPECTED DUE TO PROXIMITY TO
LAND. HOWEVER...HEAVY RAIN WILL SPREAD OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
AMERICA DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES SLOWLY
WESTWARD. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NORTH-CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO ARE
ASSOCIATED WITH A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE. THERE ARE NO SIGNS OF
ORGANIZATION AT THIS TIME...AND DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY...WILL BE SLOW
TO OCCUR AS THE SYSTEM MOVES GENERALLY WESTWARD AT 5 TO 10 MPH.
THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE

[wxman57]

Not much convection now. Chances of development are well below 10%, I'd say. Looks like just a trof of low pressure moving ashore into Texas tomorrow night. A little rain but no big deal.

[lrak]

Does anyone see a small circulation on the west side of the Yucatan at about 20n 92w?

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseastconus.html

[rockyman]

I see it, definite turning in the lower levels...of course, the east side of any circulation is obscured by intense convection over the Yucatan

[lrak]

It reminds me of TD #2. Didn't TD 2 get its chance due to friction with land?