Strong wave near Leeward Islands - Is Invest 97L

[Scorpion]

Lots and lots of convection out there, something just has to happen.

[Gustywind]

[Gustywind]

Becoming fairly organized as popcorn continues to flare...

[srainhoutx]

[Florida1118]

Nothing in TWO.

[Gustywind]

000
AXNT20 KNHC 171722
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT SAT JUL 17 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND
RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC...

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS ALONG 49W S OF 19N MOVING W AT 20 KT. THE
WAVE IS FAIRLY WELL ORGANIZED WITH CYCLONIC TURNING COVERING A
BROAD AREA OF ABOUT FIVE DEGREES EITHER SIDE OF THE WAVE AXIS.
THE WAVE IS ALSO EMBEDDED WITHIN AN AREA OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE
AS DEPICTED ON THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER ANIMATION. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS ON THE W SIDE OF THE WAVE AXIS FROM
15N-17N BETWEEN 52W-55W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA

[Florida1118]

000
AXNT20 KNHC 171722
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT SAT JUL 17 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND
RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC...

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS ALONG 49W S OF 19N MOVING W AT 20 KT. THE
WAVE IS FAIRLY WELL ORGANIZED WITH CYCLONIC TURNING COVERING A
BROAD AREA OF ABOUT FIVE DEGREES EITHER SIDE OF THE WAVE AXIS.
THE WAVE IS ALSO EMBEDDED WITHIN AN AREA OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE
AS DEPICTED ON THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER ANIMATION. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS ON THE W SIDE OF THE WAVE AXIS FROM
15N-17N BETWEEN 52W-55W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA

Then why nothing in the TWO?

[Gustywind]

000
AXNT20 KNHC 171722
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT SAT JUL 17 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND
RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC...

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS ALONG 49W S OF 19N MOVING W AT 20 KT. THE
WAVE IS FAIRLY WELL ORGANIZED WITH CYCLONIC TURNING COVERING A
BROAD AREA OF ABOUT FIVE DEGREES EITHER SIDE OF THE WAVE AXIS.
THE WAVE IS ALSO EMBEDDED WITHIN AN AREA OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE
AS DEPICTED ON THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER ANIMATION. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS ON THE W SIDE OF THE WAVE AXIS FROM
15N-17N BETWEEN 52W-55W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA

Then why nothing in the TWO?

Your're right but don't know why??? Maybe tonight: a code yellow if this increasing trend amplifies...

[Cyclone1]

It deserves atleast a nod in the TWO, no? I mean... maybe I've lost my eye for tropical cyclonology, but this seems to have, like, potential, or whatever.

[Gustywind]

000
ABNT20 KNHC 171739
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT SAT JUL 17 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN
Find the mistake


000
AXNT20 KNHC 171722
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT SAT JUL 17 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND
RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC...

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS ALONG 49W S OF 19N MOVING W AT 20 KT. THE
WAVE IS FAIRLY WELL ORGANIZED WITH CYCLONIC TURNING COVERING A
BROAD AREA OF ABOUT FIVE DEGREES EITHER SIDE OF THE WAVE AXIS.
THE WAVE IS ALSO EMBEDDED WITHIN AN AREA OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE
AS DEPICTED ON THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER ANIMATION. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS ON THE W SIDE OF THE WAVE AXIS FROM
15N-17N BETWEEN 52W-55W.


$$
FORMOSA

[dixiebreeze]

Maybe the TWO people are on lunch break?

[Blown Away]

When does the Euro show a closed low?

[srainhoutx]

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwpara ... el_l.shtml

[cycloneye]

Off Topic= A tornado occured in Mayaguez in Western Puerto Rico only hours before the opening ceremonies of the Central American games. See the details at link below at the Caribbean thread.

[bvigal]

Circulation is very broad at best, but we are seeing a reduction in the dry air and convection is on the increase. I expect the convection to continue increasing as this wave approaches the TUTT.

WV Loop: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/loop-wv.html

I agree about TUTT. The last couple days our thunderstorms carried gusts over 35kt (one local buoy recorded 48kt), courtesy reflected surface trough from TUTT. This is unusual here, not like on the mainland, where any old summer thunderstorm could gust to 45kt and nobody think anything of it. Today we have the trough sandwiched between two waves, with the next one, the subject of this thread, barreling west at 20kt. I'm wondering if our boring period has ended, we just don't know it yet.

[rockyman]

12z Euro possibly taking this system toward Bahamas:

[bvigal]

Off Topic= A tornado occured in Mayaguez in Western Puerto Rico only hours before the opening ceremonies of the Central American games. See the details at link below at the Caribbean thread.

Hey Luis! Sorry to hear about that. When I read the opening was going to be this afternoon, I thought "boy, they may have some nasty weather." I hope they can find alternatives and still do the games!

[rockyman]

Day 7 Euro: Possibly into the SE Gulf


http://vortex.plymouth.edu/cgi-bin/gen_ ... &cu=latest

[xcool22]

rockyman hey

[wxman57]

Have to keep an eye on the SW Caribbean with all the scattered storms there, but there is currently no model support for development. Canadian develops something, but always toward the end of the run. Earlier this past week, development was forecast to be today by the Canadian, now it's next Thursday.